AI correctly predicted the Real Pilar win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Real Pilar Real Pilar ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Real Pilar win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Liniers 1.19 — Real Pilar 1.41
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Real Pilar win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Real Pilar win · Liniers 0–1 Real Pilar
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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{
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"status": "market_efficient",
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"suppress_value_language": false
},
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"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
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"fair_confidence": "medium",
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"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
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"favourite_label": "Real Pilar",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 35.3,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
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"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
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"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
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"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
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"gap_tier": "aligned",
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"note": "Drift away from Liniers \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Liniers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Liniers \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Liniers has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/12) supports the current market view on Liniers."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 3.92,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
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"breakdown": [
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"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.2 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.2,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.22,
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Liniers",
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"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.92,
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"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.8,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.69,
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Real Pilar",
"market_prob_pct": 35.34,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Liniers \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Real Pilar (35.3%).",
"However, Liniers has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +11.1%, 11/12).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Real Pilar, Market \u2192 Real Pilar, Recent sharp money \u2192 Liniers.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
"closing_odds": 2.6,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.46,
"entry_odds": 2.6,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
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"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "11/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 53m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Liniers (11.1%, 11/12) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "3.20 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 53m",
"pick_team": "Liniers",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Liniers \u2191 +11.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Liniers",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Liniers \u2191 +11.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/12",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Liniers",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_team_name": "Liniers",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 2422,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2422.webp",
"away_team_name": "Real Pilar",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499470,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 8395,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8395.webp",
"home_team_name": "Liniers",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Juan Antonio Arias Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.425,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.3904,
"p_final": 0.3692
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4233,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.1387,
"implied_prob": 0.348,
"model_prob": 0.3085,
"p_final": 0.3313
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2989,
"best_odd": 3.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.093,
"implied_prob": 0.2986,
"model_prob": 0.3011,
"p_final": 0.2993
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"edge_no": -0.1335,
"edge_yes": 0.1335,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2672,
"ev_yes": 0.355,
"implied_no": 0.5915,
"implied_yes": 0.4085,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 3.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.38,
"edge_over": 0.1551,
"edge_under": -0.1551,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.446,
"ev_under": -0.2852,
"implied_over": 0.3269,
"implied_under": 0.6731,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.446,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.3085,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3904,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3904,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Real Pilar"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1335,
"ev": 0.355,
"implied_prob": 0.4085,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1551,
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499470,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.446,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3904,
"draw": 0.3085,
"home": 0.3011
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Real Pilar",
"home": "Liniers"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.19241,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.355,
"implied_prob": 0.4085,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499470,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T18:29:57.182567+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera B Metropolitana — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 39 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 77 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandí | 39 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 72 |
| 3 | Talleres de Remedios de Escalada | 39 | 19 | 11 | 9 | 68 |
| 4 | Sportivo Italiano | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 65 |
| 5 | Villa Dálmine | 39 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 65 |
| 6 | Deportivo Camioneros | 39 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 64 |
| 7 | Deportivo Armenio | 39 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 61 |
| 8 | Real Pilar | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 61 |
| 9 | Comunicaciones | 39 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 56 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 39 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 52 |
| 11 | San Martín de Burzaco | 39 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 50 |
| 12 | Dock Sud | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 39 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 47 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 39 | 10 | 15 | 14 | 45 |
| 15 | Argentino de Merlo | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 44 |
| 16 | Argentino de Quilmes | 39 | 9 | 17 | 13 | 44 |
| 17 | Liniers | 39 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 44 |
| 18 | Flandria | 39 | 11 | 9 | 19 | 42 |
| 19 | Defensores Unidos | 39 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 41 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 38 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 39 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 38 | 5 | 20 | 13 | 35 |
| 22 | Ituzaingó | 39 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 16 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 39 | 63 | 30 | +33 | 77 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandí | 39 | 53 | 26 | +27 | 72 |
| 3 | Deportivo Laferrere | 39 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 52 |
| 4 | Sportivo Italiano | 38 | 45 | 28 | +17 | 65 |
| 5 | Deportivo Camioneros | 39 | 44 | 30 | +14 | 64 |
| 6 | Deportivo Armenio | 39 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 61 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 38 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 61 |
| 8 | Talleres de Remedios de Escalada | 39 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 68 |
| 9 | Dock Sud | 38 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 47 |
| 10 | San Martín de Burzaco | 39 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 50 |
| 11 | Villa Dálmine | 39 | 39 | 24 | +15 | 65 |
| 12 | Comunicaciones | 39 | 39 | 34 | +5 | 56 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 39 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 47 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 39 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 45 |
| 15 | Flandria | 39 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 42 |
| 16 | Argentino de Merlo | 38 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 44 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 39 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 41 |
| 18 | Argentino de Quilmes | 39 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 44 |
| 19 | Liniers | 39 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 44 |
| 20 | Ituzaingó | 39 | 27 | 64 | -37 | 16 |
| 21 | Brown de Adrogué | 38 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 39 |
| 22 | UAI Urquiza | 38 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 35 |
