AI correctly predicted the Nueva Chicago win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nueva Chicago | 35.2% | 28.9% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.2% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Quilmes | 35.2% | 39.8% | -4.7 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Nueva Chicago's win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.9%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Nueva Chicago win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Nueva Chicago.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Nueva Chicago more conservatively (29.0% vs model 35.2%, 6.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Nueva Chicago win 1–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nueva Chicago 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Quilmes 35.2%
- xG · Nueva Chicago 1.30 — Quilmes 1.30
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nueva Chicago 3.29 · Draw 3.05 · Quilmes 2.39
- Implied 1X2 · Nueva Chicago 28.9% · Draw 31.2% · Quilmes 39.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nueva Chicago 3.29 · Draw 3.05 · Quilmes 2.39
- Implied 1X2 · Nueva Chicago 28.9% · Draw 31.2% · Quilmes 39.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Nueva Chicago win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.29
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Nueva Chicago win · Nueva Chicago 1–0 Quilmes
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "12/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.3%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"decision_chain": {
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},
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"why": [
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
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},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
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"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
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{
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"tone": "warn"
}
],
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"name": "Market Conflict",
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"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
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"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
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"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.008,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2894,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.303951367781155,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1574,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "12/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9230769230769231,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.23,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.23,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"steam_team": "Quilmes",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3062,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3062,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nueva Chicago at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nueva Chicago as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nueva Chicago",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.008,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2894,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.303951367781155,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1574,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nueva Chicago 1.30 xG vs Quilmes 1.30 \u2192 Nueva Chicago 35.2%",
"Market: Quilmes ~28.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Quilmes \u2193 -9.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Nueva Chicago, but sharp money moved toward Quilmes.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.23,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Nueva Chicago",
"market_prob": 28.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.57,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.67,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Quilmes",
"market_prob": 39.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.4,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.4,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.07,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.07,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Nueva Chicago",
"market_prob_pct": 28.94,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Quilmes"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Nueva Chicago\u0027s win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.9%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.23,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Nueva Chicago",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.3,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nueva Chicago 1.30 xG vs Quilmes 1.30 \u2192 Nueva Chicago 35.2%",
"Market: Quilmes ~28.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Quilmes \u2193 -9.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Nueva Chicago, but sharp money moved toward Quilmes.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.23,
"hero_label": "Nueva Chicago",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Quilmes odds shortened \u2193 -9.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Quilmes, with odds shortening by 9.3%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Nueva Chicago.",
"note": "Buying interest on Quilmes \u2014 odds shortened by 9.3%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Nueva Chicago.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Quilmes, with odds shortening by 9.3%.",
"Buying interest on Quilmes \u2014 odds shortened by 9.3%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Nueva Chicago.",
"At the same time, Quilmes has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 9.3%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (12/13) supports the current market view on Quilmes."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.23,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Nueva Chicago",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.2,
"lead": "The model rates Nueva Chicago considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.23,
"edge_pp": 6.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Nueva Chicago",
"market_prob_pct": 28.94,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.57,
"edge_pp": -1.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.22,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.67,
"edge_pp": -4.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Quilmes",
"market_prob_pct": 39.84,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Quilmes \u2014 odds shortened by 9.3%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Quilmes (28.9%).",
"However, Quilmes has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -9.3%, 12/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Nueva Chicago, Market \u2192 Quilmes, Recent sharp money \u2192 Quilmes.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.4,
"closing_odds": 3.29,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.4,
"entry_odds": 3.29,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 12,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.3
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "12/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 112h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Quilmes (9.3%, 12/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.70",
"2.54",
"2.39"
],
"display": "3.02 \u2192 2.36 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 112h",
"pick_team": "Quilmes",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.02"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.36"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
2.39,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,14.5",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.39"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Quilmes \u2193 -9.3% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Quilmes",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Quilmes \u2193 -9.3% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Market moved toward Quilmes while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Quilmes",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/13",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Quilmes",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "Quilmes",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "quilmes",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Quilmes",
"away_team_id": 480,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/480.webp",
"away_team_name": "Quilmes",
"away_team_public_id": "54UK5SuEeMG2V0",
"away_team_slug": "quilmes",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498787,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Nueva Chicago",
"home_team_id": 484,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/484.webp",
"home_team_name": "Nueva Chicago",
"home_team_public_id": "4Z5afq7yqAsWRr",
"home_team_slug": "nueva-chicago",
"ht.home_team_slug": "nueva-chicago",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-07 20:00:00",
"public_id": "39mC24fqgMWYuh",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Estadio Nueva Chicago"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4185,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.0945,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3984,
"draw": 0.3122,
"home": 0.2894
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3789
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2929,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0046,
"ev": -0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.3122,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3984,
"draw": 0.3122,
"home": 0.2894
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3076
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2719,
"best_odd": 3.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": 0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.2894,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3984,
"draw": 0.3122,
"home": 0.2894
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3064
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.0666,
"ev": -0.1593,
"implied_prob": 0.4184,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.29,
"edge": 0.0478,
"ev": 0.1573,
"implied_prob": 0.304,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2174,
"alpha_yes": 0.1976,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1107,
"edge_yes": 0.1107,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2401,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1084,
"ev_yes": 0.199,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0233,
"implied_no": 0.5657,
"implied_yes": 0.4343,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1084,
"implied_prob": 0.5641,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5404
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0233,
"implied_prob": 0.4359,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4575
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.5404,
"p_final_yes": 0.4575,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1544,
"alpha_under": 0.2123,
"best_over_odd": 2.71,
"best_under_odd": 1.48,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.56,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.124,
"edge_under": -0.124,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3062,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0302,
"ev_under": -0.2334,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1157,
"implied_over": 0.358,
"implied_over_mf": 0.36,
"implied_under": 0.642,
"implied_under_mf": 0.64,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1544,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.36,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3788
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.64,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6141
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3788,
"p_final_under": 0.6141,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3062,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3062,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3062,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3062,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3062,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nueva Chicago at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nueva Chicago as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nueva Chicago",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.008,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2894,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.303951367781155,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1574,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.29,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": 0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.2894,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Nueva Chicago"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0216,
"market_prob": 0.4359,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1084,
"implied_prob": 0.5641,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5404
},
"p_final": 0.4575,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0233,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0233,
"implied_prob": 0.4359,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4575
}
},
"edge": 0.1107,
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4343,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1544,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0188,
"market_prob": 0.36,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1544,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.36,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3788
},
"p_final": 0.3788,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0302,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.64,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6141
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.124,
"ev": 0.3062,
"implied_prob": 0.358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498787,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3062,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3062,
"implied_prob": 0.358,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3062,
"implied_prob": 0.358,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Quilmes",
"home": "Nueva Chicago"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.108455,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4343,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.008,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2894,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.303951367781155,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1574,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498787,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-07T19:59:20.855149+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Nacional — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 55 |
| 2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 55 |
| 3 | Deportivo Madryn | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 4 | Godoy Cruz | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Almirante Brown | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Colón de Santa Fe | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 45 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 39 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 29 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 29 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 37 |
| 10 | Racing de Córdoba | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35 |
| 11 | Chaco For Ever | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 33 |
| 12 | Atlético Mitre | 29 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 32 |
| 13 | Central Norte | 29 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 31 |
| 14 | All Boys | 29 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 31 |
| 15 | San Telmo | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 31 |
| 16 | Defensores de Belgrano | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 30 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 29 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 30 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 29 | 47 | 27 | +20 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 28 | 41 | 26 | +15 | 46 |
| 3 | Colón de Santa Fe | 28 | 35 | 23 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 29 | 34 | 25 | +9 | 55 |
| 5 | Godoy Cruz | 28 | 34 | 25 | +9 | 46 |
| 6 | Atlético Mitre | 29 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 32 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 29 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 39 |
| 8 | Chaco For Ever | 29 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Racing de Córdoba | 29 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 35 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 29 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 39 |
| 11 | Almirante Brown | 29 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 46 |
| 12 | San Telmo | 29 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 31 |
| 13 | San Miguel | 29 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 30 |
| 14 | Los Andes | 29 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 37 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 28 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 30 |
| 16 | Central Norte | 29 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 31 |
| 17 | Acassuso | 29 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 23 |
| 18 | All Boys | 29 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 31 |
