The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Deportivo Maipú at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Deportivo Maipú Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maipú | 39.0% | 46.1% | -7.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 30.4% | -0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Patronato | 31.5% | 23.5% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Patronato's win probability at 31.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.5%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Patronato.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Deportivo Maipú by 8.0 percentage points (31.0% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Maipú 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Patronato 31.5%
- xG · Deportivo Maipú 1.38 — Patronato 1.22
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Maipú 2.06 · Draw 3.13 · Patronato 4.04
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Maipú 46.1% · Draw 30.4% · Patronato 23.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Maipú 2.06 · Draw 3.13 · Patronato 4.04
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Maipú 46.1% · Draw 30.4% · Patronato 23.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
60/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Deportivo Maipú 0–0 Patronato
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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"raw_pct": -22.3,
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},
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1091,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.9,
"text": "-10.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0069,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1972,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"sort_key": 5205.52,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"alert_team": "Patronato",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.96,
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"market_prob_pct": 46.1,
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"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Maip\u00fa at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Maip\u00fa as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1091,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1972,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.46153846153846156,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.96,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.96,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"steam_team": "Patronato",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Maip\u00fa at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Maip\u00fa as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1091,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1972,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Maip\u00fa 1.38 xG vs Patronato 1.22 \u2192 Deportivo Maip\u00fa 39.0%",
"Market: Deportivo Maip\u00fa ~46.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Patronato odds \u2191 +13.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo Maip\u00fa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.15,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"market_prob": 46.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.82,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.96,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Patronato",
"market_prob": 23.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.6,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.6,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.59,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.59,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Patronato",
"market_prob_pct": 23.52,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Patronato"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Patronato\u0027s win probability at 31.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.5%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.96,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Maip\u00fa 1.38 xG vs Patronato 1.22 \u2192 Deportivo Maip\u00fa 39.0%",
"Market: Deportivo Maip\u00fa ~46.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Patronato odds \u2191 +13.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo Maip\u00fa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.96,
"hero_label": "Patronato",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Patronato odds lengthened \u2191 +13.6%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (6/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Patronato.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Patronato.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Patronato.",
"Confirmation remains limited (6/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Patronato."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Patronato.",
"Recent line movement on Patronato (\u2191 +13.6%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (6/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.96,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Patronato",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.0,
"lead": "The model rates Patronato considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.15,
"edge_pp": -7.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"market_prob_pct": 46.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.82,
"edge_pp": -0.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.36,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.96,
"edge_pp": 7.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Patronato",
"market_prob_pct": 23.52,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Patronato.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Maip\u00fa (46.1%).",
"However, Patronato has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +13.6%, 6/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Deportivo Maip\u00fa \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 24.75,
"closing_odds": 4.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 24.75,
"entry_odds": 4.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 139h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Patronato (13.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.04",
"3.67",
"3.30"
],
"display": "4.04 \u2192 3.24 \u2192 3.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 139h 58m",
"pick_team": "Patronato",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.04"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.24"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
4.04,
3.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.04"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/13 sportsbooks on Patronato",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Patronato",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Patronato",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Patronato",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Patronato",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Patronato",
"away_team_id": 444,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/444.webp",
"away_team_name": "Patronato",
"away_team_public_id": "1yQFvxJVPqFnO6",
"away_team_slug": "patronato",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498785,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"home_team_id": 1954,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1954.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"home_team_public_id": "1K3f7KnjmKrjaV",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-maipu",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 19:00:00",
"public_id": "0oq9ODKcsZHg3Y",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Maipu",
"venue_name": "Stadion Omar Higinio Sperdutti"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1761,
"best_odd": 4.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": 0.0069,
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2352,
"draw": 0.3036,
"home": 0.4612
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2492
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2963,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0024,
"ev": -0.0574,
"implied_prob": 0.3036,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2352,
"draw": 0.3036,
"home": 0.4612
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3012
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4017,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0288,
"ev": -0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2352,
"draw": 0.3036,
"home": 0.4612
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4325
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.04,
"edge": 0.0674,
"ev": 0.2723,
"implied_prob": 0.2475,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.13,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": -0.0958,
"ev": -0.1973,
"implied_prob": 0.4854,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2142,
"alpha_yes": 0.1947,
"best_no_odd": 1.65,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1159,
"edge_yes": 0.1159,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2476,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1122,
"ev_yes": 0.1968,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0219,
"implied_no": 0.5719,
"implied_yes": 0.4281,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1122,
"implied_prob": 0.5731,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.548
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": -0.0219,
"implied_prob": 0.4269,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4497
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.548,
"p_final_yes": 0.4497,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1564,
"alpha_under": 0.2151,
"best_over_odd": 2.69,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.525,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.465,
"edge_over": 0.116,
"edge_under": -0.116,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2966,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0275,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1091,
"implied_over": 0.366,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3672,
"implied_under": 0.634,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6328,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1564,
"best_odd": 2.525,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.3672,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3851
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2151,
"best_odd": 1.465,
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.6328,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6081
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3851,
"p_final_under": 0.6081,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2966,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2966,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Maip\u00fa at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Maip\u00fa as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1091,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1972,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0288,
"ev": -0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0228,
"market_prob": 0.4269,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1122,
"implied_prob": 0.5731,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.548
},
"p_final": 0.4497,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0219,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": -0.0219,
"implied_prob": 0.4269,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4497
}
},
"edge": 0.1159,
"ev": 0.1968,
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1564,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.525,
"edge": 0.018,
"market_prob": 0.3672,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1564,
"best_odd": 2.525,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.3672,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3851
},
"p_final": 0.3851,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0275,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2151,
"best_odd": 1.465,
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.6328,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6081
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.116,
"ev": 0.2966,
"implied_prob": 0.366,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498785,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2966,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2966,
"implied_prob": 0.366,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2966,
"implied_prob": 0.366,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Patronato",
"home": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.107059,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1968,
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1091,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1972,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498785,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T18:59:39.693517+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Nacional — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 55 |
| 2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 55 |
| 3 | Deportivo Madryn | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 4 | Godoy Cruz | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Almirante Brown | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Colón de Santa Fe | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 45 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 39 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 29 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 29 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 37 |
| 10 | Racing de Córdoba | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35 |
| 11 | Chaco For Ever | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 33 |
| 12 | Atlético Mitre | 29 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 32 |
| 13 | Central Norte | 29 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 31 |
| 14 | All Boys | 29 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 31 |
| 15 | San Telmo | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 31 |
| 16 | Defensores de Belgrano | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 30 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 29 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 30 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 29 | 47 | 27 | +20 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 28 | 41 | 26 | +15 | 46 |
| 3 | Colón de Santa Fe | 28 | 35 | 23 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 29 | 34 | 25 | +9 | 55 |
| 5 | Godoy Cruz | 28 | 34 | 25 | +9 | 46 |
| 6 | Atlético Mitre | 29 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 32 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 29 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 39 |
| 8 | Chaco For Ever | 29 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Racing de Córdoba | 29 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 35 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 29 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 39 |
| 11 | Almirante Brown | 29 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 46 |
| 12 | San Telmo | 29 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 31 |
| 13 | San Miguel | 29 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 30 |
| 14 | Los Andes | 29 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 37 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 28 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 30 |
| 16 | Central Norte | 29 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 31 |
| 17 | Acassuso | 29 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 23 |
| 18 | All Boys | 29 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 31 |
