The model missed the final outcome (Ljungskile SK win 2–1).
The model had projected Norrby IF at 38.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Norrby IF Ljungskile SK ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ljungskile SK | 36.1% | 46.7% | -10.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.3% | 25.1% | +0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Norrby IF | 38.6% | 28.3% | +10.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Ljungskile SK's win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Ljungskile SK win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Ljungskile SK than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.48) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Norrby IF; match finished Ljungskile SK
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Norrby IF by 10.6 percentage points (49.2% vs model 38.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 19:21 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ljungskile SK 36.1% · Draw 25.3% · Norrby IF 38.6%
- xG · Ljungskile SK 1.60 — Norrby IF 1.88
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ljungskile SK 2.04 · Draw 3.80 · Norrby IF 3.37
- Implied 1X2 · Ljungskile SK 46.7% · Draw 25.1% · Norrby IF 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ljungskile SK 2.04 · Draw 3.80 · Norrby IF 3.37
- Implied 1X2 · Ljungskile SK 46.7% · Draw 25.1% · Norrby IF 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ljungskile SK win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
16/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ljungskile SK win · Ljungskile SK 2–1 Norrby IF
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0408,
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},
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"alert_team": "Norrby IF",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.6,
"has_alert": false,
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"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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}
],
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"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
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},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.08,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
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"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Norrby IF at 38.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Norrby IF as the value side (38.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Norrby IF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Norrby IF \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1497691 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Norrby IF).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0408,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2826,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3862,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "6/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.57,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.57,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.88,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.6,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.88,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.60 \u00b7 Away xG 1.88 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +39%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"steam_team": "Norrby IF",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Norrby IF)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Norrby IF)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.08,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3016,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Norrby IF at 38.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Norrby IF as the value side (38.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Norrby IF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Norrby IF \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1497691 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Norrby IF).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0408,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2826,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3862,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ljungskile SK 1.60 xG vs Norrby IF 1.88 \u2192 Norrby IF 38.6%",
"Market: Ljungskile SK ~28.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Norrby IF \u2193 -5.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Norrby IF with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.57,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Ljungskile SK",
"market_prob": 46.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.2,
"fair_prob": 25.26,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.38,
"fair_prob": 38.64,
"label": "Norrby IF",
"market_prob": 28.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.0,
"fair_prob": 67.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.0,
"fair_prob": 32.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.71,
"fair_prob": 68.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.71,
"fair_prob": 31.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ljungskile SK",
"market_prob_pct": 46.68,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Norrby IF"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Ljungskile SK\u0027s win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.57,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Norrby IF",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.3,
"model_prob_pct": 38.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Norrby IF \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ljungskile SK 1.60 xG vs Norrby IF 1.88 \u2192 Norrby IF 38.6%",
"Market: Ljungskile SK ~28.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Norrby IF \u2193 -5.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Norrby IF with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.57,
"hero_label": "Ljungskile SK",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Norrby IF odds shortened \u2193 -5.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Norrby IF, with odds shortening by 5.7%. Confirmation remains limited (6/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ljungskile SK than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Norrby IF \u2014 odds shortened by 5.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Ljungskile SK than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Norrby IF, with odds shortening by 5.7%. Confirmation remains limited (6/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Norrby IF \u2014 odds shortened by 5.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Ljungskile SK more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Norrby IF has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 5.7%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (6/14), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.57,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.5 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.5,
"max_prob_pct": 38.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Ljungskile SK",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Ljungskile SK higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.57,
"edge_pp": -10.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ljungskile SK",
"market_prob_pct": 46.68,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.2,
"edge_pp": 0.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.06,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.38,
"edge_pp": 10.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Norrby IF",
"market_prob_pct": 28.26,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Norrby IF \u2014 odds shortened by 5.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ljungskile SK (28.3%).",
"Norrby IF has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -5.7%, 6/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Norrby IF, Market \u2192 Ljungskile SK, Recent sharp money \u2192 Norrby IF.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.02,
"closing_odds": 2.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.02,
"entry_odds": 2.04,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.3
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "6/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 51h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Norrby IF (swing 3.65 \u2192 3.02 \u2192 3.30) \u2014 net 5.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.40",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.65 \u2192 3.02 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 51h 59m",
"pick_team": "Norrby IF",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.65"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.02"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.37,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,11.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Norrby IF",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Norrby IF",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/14",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Norrby IF",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_team_name": "Norrby IF",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "norrby-if",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Norrby IF",
"away_team_id": 2173,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2173.webp",
"away_team_name": "Norrby IF",
"away_team_public_id": "1zNTY1YdUHy1g5",
"away_team_slug": "norrby-if",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1497691,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 2,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 2,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Ljungskile SK",
"home_team_id": 2165,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2165.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ljungskile SK",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Ljungskile SK",
"home_team_public_id": "2PDLAS03jbuZmF",
"home_team_slug": "ljungskile-sk",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ljungskile-sk",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Superettan",
"league_id": 114,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/114.webp",
"league_name": "Superettan",
"league_public_id": "1AeWQY7m38GxEg",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-09 17:00:00",
"public_id": "1Xhopthgfu6TI7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Uddevalla",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2534,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0263,
"ev": 0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2826,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2826,
"draw": 0.2506,
"home": 0.4668
},
"model_prob": 0.3862,
"p_final": 0.3088
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2991,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0006,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.2506,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2826,
"draw": 0.2506,
"home": 0.4668
},
"model_prob": 0.2526,
"p_final": 0.2512
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3787,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.04,
"ev": -0.1293,
"implied_prob": 0.4668,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2826,
"draw": 0.2506,
"home": 0.4668
},
"model_prob": 0.3611,
"p_final": 0.4268
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": 0.0895,
"ev": 0.3016,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.3862
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.8,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.0401,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.2526
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.1291,
"ev": -0.2633,
"implied_prob": 0.4902,
"model_prob": 0.3611
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1698,
"alpha_yes": 0.2335,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.52,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0671,
"edge_yes": 0.0671,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2044,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0978,
"ev_yes": 0.0458,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0459,
"implied_no": 0.3791,
"implied_yes": 0.6209,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1698,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0978,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"model_prob": 0.312,
"p_final": 0.3682
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2335,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0459,
"implied_prob": 0.6203,
"model_prob": 0.688,
"p_final": 0.6361
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.3682,
"p_final_yes": 0.6361,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2284,
"alpha_under": 0.1661,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.3,
"edge_over": 0.08,
"edge_under": -0.08,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.08,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.038,
"ev_under": -0.22,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0978,
"implied_over": 0.595,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5943,
"implied_under": 0.405,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4057,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2284,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.5943,
"model_prob": 0.675,
"p_final": 0.6127
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.0978,
"implied_prob": 0.4057,
"model_prob": 0.325,
"p_final": 0.3923
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6127,
"p_final_under": 0.3923,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.48,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.08,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3016,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.08,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Norrby IF)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.08,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3016,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Norrby IF at 38.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Norrby IF as the value side (38.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Norrby IF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Norrby IF \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1497691 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Norrby IF).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0408,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2826,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3862,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.688,
"draw_prob": 0.2526,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3862,
"over_prob": 0.675,
"total_xg": 3.48,
"under_prob": 0.325,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0263,
"ev": 0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2826,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3862,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Norrby IF"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2335,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0158,
"market_prob": 0.6203,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.688,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1698,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0978,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"model_prob": 0.312,
"p_final": 0.3682
},
"p_final": 0.6361,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0459,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2335,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0459,
"implied_prob": 0.6203,
"model_prob": 0.688,
"p_final": 0.6361
}
},
"edge": 0.0671,
"ev": 0.0458,
"implied_prob": 0.6209,
"model_prob": 0.688,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2284,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0184,
"market_prob": 0.5943,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.675,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2284,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.5943,
"model_prob": 0.675,
"p_final": 0.6127
},
"p_final": 0.6127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.038,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.0978,
"implied_prob": 0.4057,
"model_prob": 0.325,
"p_final": 0.3923
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.08,
"ev": 0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.595,
"model_prob": 0.675,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1497691,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.08,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3862,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.3611
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Norrby IF",
"home": "Ljungskile SK"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.0675,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.595,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.675,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0408,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2826,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3862,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1497691,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T19:21:33.825571+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Superettan — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrköping | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 55 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 45 |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 44 |
| 4 | Östersunds FK | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 43 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 40 |
| 6 | Oddevold | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 36 |
| 7 | Östers IF | 25 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 36 |
| 8 | United Nordic | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 36 |
| 9 | Sandviken | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| 10 | Helsingborg | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 30 |
| 11 | IFK Värnamo | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 12 | Ljungskile SK | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 28 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 25 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 24 |
| 14 | Örebro SK | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 24 |
| 15 | IK Brage | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 23 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 25 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrköping | 25 | 48 | 16 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 25 | 46 | 33 | +13 | 45 |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS | 25 | 44 | 33 | +11 | 44 |
| 4 | Sandviken | 25 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 34 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 25 | 39 | 26 | +13 | 40 |
| 6 | IK Brage | 25 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 23 |
| 7 | Oddevold | 25 | 38 | 34 | +4 | 36 |
| 8 | Östers IF | 25 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | United Nordic | 25 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 | Helsingborg | 25 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 30 |
| 11 | Östersunds FK | 25 | 33 | 24 | +9 | 43 |
| 12 | Ljungskile SK | 25 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 28 |
| 13 | IFK Värnamo | 25 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 29 |
| 14 | Norrby IF | 25 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 24 |
| 15 | Örebro SK | 25 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 24 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 25 | 19 | 53 | -34 | 19 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varbergs BoIS | 25 | 4.8 | 2.8 | +2.0 | 44 |
| 2 | IFK Norrköping | 25 | 4.5 | 2.8 | +1.7 | 55 |
| 3 | Ljungskile SK | 25 | 1.2 | 1.1 | +0.1 | 28 |
| 4 | Oddevold | 25 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 36 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 25 | 1.6 | 2.6 | -1.0 | 40 |
| 6 | Östersunds FK | 25 | 0.6 | 3.4 | -2.8 | 43 |
| 7 | Falkenbergs FF | 25 | — | — | — | 45 |
| 8 | Östers IF | 25 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 9 | United Nordic | 25 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 10 | Sandviken | 25 | — | — | — | 34 |
| 11 | Helsingborg | 25 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 12 | IFK Värnamo | 25 | — | — | — | 29 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 25 | — | — | — | 24 |
| 14 | Örebro SK | 25 | — | — | — | 24 |
| 15 | IK Brage | 25 | — | — | — | 23 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 25 | — | — | — | 19 |
