The model missed the final outcome (Fløya win 2–4).
The model had projected Strømsgodset II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Strømsgodset II Fløya ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strømsgodset II | 36.1% | 42.8% | -6.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 18.9% | +10.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Fløya | 34.2% | 38.3% | -4.1 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.9%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Fløya win 2–4.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Strømsgodset II by 10.7 percentage points (25.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:50 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Strømsgodset II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Fløya 34.2%
- xG · Strømsgodset II 1.32 — Fløya 1.28
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Strømsgodset II 2.08 · Draw 4.70 · Fløya 2.32
- Implied 1X2 · Strømsgodset II 42.8% · Draw 18.9% · Fløya 38.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:50 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Strømsgodset II 2.08 · Draw 4.70 · Fløya 2.32
- Implied 1X2 · Strømsgodset II 42.8% · Draw 18.9% · Fløya 38.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fløya win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
46/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.7
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Fløya win · Strømsgodset II 2–4 Fløya
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
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"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
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"ev": -0.1669,
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},
{
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}
],
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
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"alert_team": "",
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"divergence_pp": 10.7,
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"hero_edge_pp": 10.73,
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"market_team": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
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"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II)."
},
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"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
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"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Str\u00f8msgodset II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Str\u00f8msgodset II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1669,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.73,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.73,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.011497,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011497,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Str\u00f8msgodset II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Str\u00f8msgodset II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1669,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Str\u00f8msgodset II 1.32 xG vs Fl\u00f8ya 1.28 \u2192 Str\u00f8msgodset II 36.1%",
"Market: Str\u00f8msgodset II ~42.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Str\u00f8msgodset II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Str\u00f8msgodset II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.64,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"market_prob": 42.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.73,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 18.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.09,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Fl\u00f8ya",
"market_prob": 38.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -29.95,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 78.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 29.95,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 21.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.35,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 75.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.35,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 24.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 18.92,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Str\u00f8msgodset II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 18.9%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Str\u00f8msgodset II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Str\u00f8msgodset II 1.32 xG vs Fl\u00f8ya 1.28 \u2192 Str\u00f8msgodset II 36.1%",
"Market: Str\u00f8msgodset II ~42.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Str\u00f8msgodset II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Str\u00f8msgodset II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.73,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Str\u00f8msgodset II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Str\u00f8msgodset II.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.",
"However, Str\u00f8msgodset II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Str\u00f8msgodset II."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Draw more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Str\u00f8msgodset II has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Str\u00f8msgodset II."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.7,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.64,
"edge_pp": -6.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"market_prob_pct": 42.75,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.73,
"edge_pp": 10.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 18.92,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.09,
"edge_pp": -4.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fl\u00f8ya",
"market_prob_pct": 38.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Str\u00f8msgodset II.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Str\u00f8msgodset II (42.8%).",
"Str\u00f8msgodset II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 21.28,
"closing_odds": 4.7,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 21.28,
"entry_odds": 4.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.08,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.08,
"pick_team": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "flya",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Fl\u00f8ya",
"away_team_id": 6984,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6984.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fl\u00f8ya",
"away_team_public_id": "4IQ6TBGI6co8Rc",
"away_team_slug": "flya",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1497253,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"home_team_id": 12865,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12865.webp",
"home_team_name": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"home_team_public_id": "22ZWiDcu8UCsLz",
"home_team_slug": "strmsgodset-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "strmsgodset-ii",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n - Grupo 5 de Noruega",
"league_id": 778,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/778.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n - Grupo 5 de Noruega",
"league_public_id": "1fYcfB1EQjXj2e",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 13:00:00",
"public_id": "38IIleYfywlkL1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4224,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1508,
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3833,
"draw": 0.1892,
"home": 0.4275
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1678,
"best_odd": 4.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.026,
"implied_prob": 0.1892,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3833,
"draw": 0.1892,
"home": 0.4275
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2072
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4051,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.027,
"ev": -0.1669,
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3833,
"draw": 0.1892,
"home": 0.4275
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4005
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.0886,
"ev": -0.2056,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.7,
"edge": 0.0839,
"ev": 0.3944,
"implied_prob": 0.2128,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.1198,
"ev": -0.2493,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1665,
"best_no_odd": 4.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2135,
"edge_yes": -0.2135,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.82,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0169,
"ev_yes": -0.3187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1279,
"implied_no": 0.2415,
"implied_yes": 0.7585,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.865,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0169,
"implied_prob": 0.2369,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2544
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1665,
"best_odd": 1.2,
"edge": -0.0363,
"ev": -0.1279,
"implied_prob": 0.7631,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7268
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.2544,
"p_final_yes": 0.7268,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.0954,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.16,
"best_under_odd": 4.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.16,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.15,
"edge_over": -0.2995,
"edge_under": 0.2995,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4409,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1266,
"ev_under": 1.1497,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.006,
"implied_over": 0.7815,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7815,
"implied_under": 0.2185,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2185,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0954,
"best_odd": 1.16,
"edge": -0.0286,
"ev": -0.1266,
"implied_prob": 0.7815,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.753
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.15,
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": 0.006,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2424
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.753,
"p_final_under": 0.2424,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.1497,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.1497,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.1497,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.011497,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011497,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Str\u00f8msgodset II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Str\u00f8msgodset II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1669,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.027,
"ev": -0.1669,
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.865,
"edge": 0.0174,
"market_prob": 0.2369,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.865,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0169,
"implied_prob": 0.2369,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2544
},
"p_final": 0.2544,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0169,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1665,
"best_odd": 1.2,
"edge": -0.0363,
"ev": -0.1279,
"implied_prob": 0.7631,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7268
}
},
"edge": 0.2135,
"ev": 0.82,
"implied_prob": 0.2415,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.15,
"edge": 0.024,
"market_prob": 0.2185,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0954,
"best_odd": 1.16,
"edge": -0.0286,
"ev": -0.1266,
"implied_prob": 0.7815,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.753
},
"p_final": 0.2424,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.006,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.15,
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": 0.006,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2424
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2995,
"ev": 1.1497,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1497253,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.1497,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.1497,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.1497,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fl\u00f8ya",
"home": "Str\u00f8msgodset II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.3731,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.82,
"implied_prob": 0.2415,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1669,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1497253,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T12:50:10.286852+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Tercera División - Grupo 5 de Noruega — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 21 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 49 |
| 2 | Harstad | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Fløya | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 36 |
| 4 | Alta | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 36 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 |
| 6 | Fauske Sprint | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Skjetten | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Lillestrøm II | 20 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 27 |
| 9 | Skjervøy | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| 10 | Strømsgodset II | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 11 | Kongsvinger II | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 12 | Tromsø II | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 20 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harstad | 20 | 66 | 31 | +35 | 39 |
| 2 | Lillestrøm II | 20 | 65 | 45 | +20 | 27 |
| 3 | Fauske Sprint | 20 | 58 | 65 | -7 | 31 |
| 4 | Fløya | 20 | 52 | 31 | +21 | 36 |
| 5 | Skedsmo | 21 | 50 | 25 | +25 | 49 |
| 6 | Skjetten | 20 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 30 |
| 7 | Alta | 20 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 36 |
| 8 | Finnsnes | 21 | 39 | 34 | +5 | 35 |
| 9 | Strømsgodset II | 20 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 23 |
| 10 | Tromsø II | 20 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 20 |
| 11 | Kongsvinger II | 20 | 36 | 57 | -21 | 23 |
| 12 | Ulfstind | 21 | 36 | 77 | -41 | 14 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 20 | 34 | 67 | -33 | 19 |
| 14 | Skjervøy | 21 | 33 | 56 | -23 | 24 |
