AI correctly predicted the Skjetten win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Skjetten Skjetten ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skjetten | 39.5% | 54.5% | -15.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 21.3% | +8.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Tromsø II | 31.0% | 24.2% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Skjetten's win probability at 54.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Skjetten win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Skjetten than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Skjetten higher (54.5% vs model 39.5%, 15.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Skjetten win 3–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Skjetten 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Tromsø II 31.0%
- xG · Skjetten 1.39 — Tromsø II 1.21
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Skjetten 1.63 · Draw 4.16 · Tromsø II 3.67
- Implied 1X2 · Skjetten 54.5% · Draw 21.3% · Tromsø II 24.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Skjetten 1.63 · Draw 4.16 · Tromsø II 3.67
- Implied 1X2 · Skjetten 54.5% · Draw 21.3% · Tromsø II 24.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Skjetten win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
24/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.63
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Skjetten win · Skjetten 3–2 Tromsø II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2257,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -22.6,
"text": "-22.6%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
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"max_ev": -0.0446,
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},
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"sort_key": 1788.85,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"alert_team": "Troms\u00f8 II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.01,
"hero_label": "Skjetten",
"market_prob_pct": 54.5,
"market_team": "Skjetten",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Skjetten",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Skjetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Skjetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9891,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9891,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Skjetten at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Skjetten as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Skjetten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +98.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +98.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +98.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+98.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Skjetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2257,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6134969325153374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.01,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.01,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"steam_team": "Troms\u00f8 II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Skjetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Skjetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9891,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9891,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Skjetten at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Skjetten as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Skjetten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +98.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +98.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +98.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+98.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Skjetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2257,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6134969325153374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Skjetten 1.39 xG vs Troms\u00f8 II 1.21 \u2192 Skjetten 39.5%",
"Market: Skjetten ~54.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Troms\u00f8 II odds \u2191 +16.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Skjetten, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.01,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Skjetten",
"market_prob": 54.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.17,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.84,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Troms\u00f8 II",
"market_prob": 24.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -27.15,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 75.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 27.15,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 24.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.09,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 73.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.09,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 26.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Skjetten",
"market_prob_pct": 54.47,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Troms\u00f8 II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Skjetten\u0027s win probability at 54.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.01,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Skjetten",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -15.0,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -15.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Skjetten \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Skjetten 1.39 xG vs Troms\u00f8 II 1.21 \u2192 Skjetten 39.5%",
"Market: Skjetten ~54.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Troms\u00f8 II odds \u2191 +16.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Skjetten, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.01,
"hero_label": "Skjetten",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Troms\u00f8 II odds lengthened \u2191 +16.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Troms\u00f8 II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Skjetten than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Troms\u00f8 II \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Skjetten than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Troms\u00f8 II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Troms\u00f8 II \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Skjetten more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Troms\u00f8 II has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.01,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Skjetten",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Skjetten higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.01,
"edge_pp": -15.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Skjetten",
"market_prob_pct": 54.47,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.17,
"edge_pp": 8.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.84,
"edge_pp": 6.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Troms\u00f8 II",
"market_prob_pct": 24.19,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Troms\u00f8 II \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Skjetten (54.5%).",
"However, Troms\u00f8 II has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +16.7%, 4/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Skjetten \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 61.35,
"closing_odds": 1.63,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 61.35,
"entry_odds": 1.63,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Troms\u00f8 II (16.7%, 4/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.67",
"3.33",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.84 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"pick_team": "Troms\u00f8 II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.84"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.67,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.67"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Troms\u00f8 II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Troms\u00f8 II",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Troms\u00f8 II",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_team_name": "Troms\u00f8 II",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "troms-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Troms\u00f8 II",
"away_team_id": 16232,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16232.webp",
"away_team_name": "Troms\u00f8 II",
"away_team_public_id": "1oseCTOmsvIxVs",
"away_team_slug": "troms-ii",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1497239,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Skjetten",
"home_team_id": 7025,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7025.webp",
"home_team_name": "Skjetten",
"home_team_public_id": "4Yg1Ab6TVwb74S",
"home_team_slug": "skjetten",
"ht.home_team_slug": "skjetten",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n - Grupo 5 de Noruega",
"league_id": 778,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/778.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n - Grupo 5 de Noruega",
"league_public_id": "1fYcfB1EQjXj2e",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 16:00:00",
"public_id": "5epRg44vsOpf73",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2692,
"best_odd": 3.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.0446,
"implied_prob": 0.2419,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2419,
"draw": 0.2134,
"home": 0.5447
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2603
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1756,
"best_odd": 4.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0528,
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2419,
"draw": 0.2134,
"home": 0.5447
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2277
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4652,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0697,
"ev": -0.2257,
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2419,
"draw": 0.2134,
"home": 0.5447
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.475
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.67,
"edge": 0.0378,
"ev": 0.1388,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.16,
"edge": 0.0544,
"ev": 0.2262,
"implied_prob": 0.2404,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.2186,
"ev": -0.3562,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0803,
"alpha_yes": 0.1766,
"best_no_odd": 3.52,
"best_yes_odd": 1.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1909,
"edge_yes": -0.1909,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.6086,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0295,
"ev_yes": -0.3213,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1246,
"implied_no": 0.2661,
"implied_yes": 0.7339,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0803,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.266,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.2813
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1766,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0337,
"ev": -0.1246,
"implied_prob": 0.734,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.7003
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.2813,
"p_final_yes": 0.7003,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1434,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.28,
"best_under_odd": 3.84,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.19,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.82,
"edge_over": -0.2715,
"edge_under": 0.2715,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.383,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1405,
"ev_under": 0.9891,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0069,
"implied_over": 0.7535,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7625,
"implied_under": 0.2465,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2375,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1434,
"best_odd": 1.19,
"edge": -0.0402,
"ev": -0.1405,
"implied_prob": 0.7625,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7223
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0224,
"ev": -0.0069,
"implied_prob": 0.2375,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.26
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7223,
"p_final_under": 0.26,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9891,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9891,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.9891,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Skjetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9891,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9891,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Skjetten at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Skjetten as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Skjetten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +98.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +98.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +98.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+98.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Skjetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2257,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6134969325153374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0697,
"ev": -0.2257,
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Skjetten"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0803,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.45,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.266,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.266,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.2813
},
"p_final": 0.2813,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0295,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1766,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0337,
"ev": -0.1246,
"implied_prob": 0.734,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.7003
}
},
"edge": 0.1909,
"ev": 0.6086,
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0224,
"market_prob": 0.2375,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1434,
"best_odd": 1.19,
"edge": -0.0402,
"ev": -0.1405,
"implied_prob": 0.7625,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7223
},
"p_final": 0.26,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0069,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0224,
"ev": -0.0069,
"implied_prob": 0.2375,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.26
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2715,
"ev": 0.9891,
"implied_prob": 0.2465,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1497239,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.9891,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6086,
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6086,
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Troms\u00f8 II",
"home": "Skjetten"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.358648,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9891,
"implied_prob": 0.2465,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2257,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6134969325153374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1497239,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T15:59:16.418355+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Tercera División - Grupo 5 de Noruega — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 21 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 49 |
| 2 | Harstad | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 39 |
| 3 | Fløya | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 39 |
| 4 | Alta | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 |
| 6 | Skjetten | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 33 |
| 7 | Fauske Sprint | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 31 |
| 8 | Lillestrøm II | 21 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 27 |
| 9 | Kongsvinger II | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 10 | Skjervøy | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| 11 | Tromsø II | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| 12 | Strømsgodset II | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 23 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lillestrøm II | 21 | 68 | 53 | +15 | 27 |
| 2 | Harstad | 21 | 67 | 33 | +34 | 39 |
| 3 | Fauske Sprint | 21 | 58 | 68 | -10 | 31 |
| 4 | Fløya | 21 | 56 | 33 | +23 | 39 |
| 5 | Alta | 21 | 54 | 31 | +23 | 39 |
| 6 | Skjetten | 21 | 52 | 42 | +10 | 33 |
| 7 | Skedsmo | 21 | 50 | 25 | +25 | 49 |
| 8 | Strømsgodset II | 21 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 23 |
| 9 | Tromsø II | 21 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 23 |
| 10 | Finnsnes | 21 | 39 | 34 | +5 | 35 |
| 11 | Kongsvinger II | 21 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Ulfstind | 21 | 36 | 77 | -41 | 14 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 21 | 34 | 70 | -36 | 19 |
| 14 | Skjervøy | 21 | 33 | 56 | -23 | 24 |
