AI correctly predicted the Rana win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Rana Rana ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junkeren | 32.9% | 43.1% | -10.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.1% | +6.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Rana | 37.5% | 33.8% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Junkeren's win probability at 43.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Rana win 0–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Junkeren than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rana higher (47.7% vs model 37.5%, 10.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rana win 0–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Junkeren 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Rana 37.6%
- xG · Junkeren 1.25 — Rana 1.35
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Junkeren 2.13 · Draw 3.97 · Rana 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Junkeren 43.1% · Draw 23.1% · Rana 33.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Junkeren 2.13 · Draw 3.97 · Rana 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Junkeren 43.1% · Draw 23.1% · Rana 33.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rana win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
16/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Rana win · Junkeren 0–2 Rana
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"alert_team": "Rana",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.21,
"hero_label": "Junkeren",
"market_prob_pct": 33.8,
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"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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},
"authority": {
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"label": "Disagree",
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
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"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
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"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rana at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rana as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rana",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +62.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +62.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +62.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+62.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.04,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0181,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.21,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"steam_team": "Rana",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6213,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6213,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rana at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rana as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rana",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +62.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +62.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +62.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+62.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.04,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0181,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Junkeren 1.25 xG vs Rana 1.35 \u2192 Rana 37.5%",
"Market: Junkeren ~33.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Rana odds \u2191 +4.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Rana, but the market has moved away from Rana.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.21,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Junkeren",
"market_prob": 43.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.51,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.7,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Rana",
"market_prob": 33.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.22,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.22,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.68,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 70.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.68,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 29.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Junkeren",
"market_prob_pct": 43.06,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Rana"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Junkeren\u0027s win probability at 43.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Rana",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.7,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Junkeren 1.25 xG vs Rana 1.35 \u2192 Rana 37.5%",
"Market: Junkeren ~33.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Rana odds \u2191 +4.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Rana, but the market has moved away from Rana.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.21,
"hero_label": "Junkeren",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Rana odds lengthened \u2191 +4.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Rana has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Junkeren than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Rana \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Junkeren than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Rana has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Rana \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Junkeren more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Rana has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Rana."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Junkeren",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Junkeren higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.21,
"edge_pp": -10.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Junkeren",
"market_prob_pct": 43.06,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.51,
"edge_pp": 6.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.1,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.7,
"edge_pp": 3.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rana",
"market_prob_pct": 33.84,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Rana \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Junkeren (33.8%).",
"Rana odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.6%, 5/6) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Rana, Market \u2192 Junkeren, while Rana odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.71,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 52m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Rana (4.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.71",
"2.65",
"2.59"
],
"display": "2.75 \u2192 2.51 \u2192 2.71",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 52m",
"pick_team": "Rana",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.51"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.71"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.59,
2.71
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.59"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.59"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.71"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.71"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.59,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/6 sportsbooks on Rana",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Rana",
"ref_book": "Pinnacle",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.71,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"open_odds": 2.59,
"summary": "Market moved away from Rana while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Rana",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 2.71,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"open_odds": 2.59,
"pick_team": "Rana",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "Rana",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "rana",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Rana",
"away_team_id": 16229,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16229.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rana",
"away_team_public_id": "1Ca60yGR5U6Zb7",
"away_team_slug": "rana",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1496339,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Junkeren",
"home_team_id": 7000,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7000.webp",
"home_team_name": "Junkeren",
"home_team_public_id": "0USFmjRdIiuWrR",
"home_team_slug": "junkeren",
"ht.home_team_slug": "junkeren",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n - Grupo 2 de Noruega",
"league_id": 474,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/474.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n - Grupo 2 de Noruega",
"league_public_id": "3xMwFDaJUU2RBu",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "3d5rW6jCvQ7OUU",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Bodo",
"venue_name": "Nordlandshallen"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4249,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.3384,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3384,
"draw": 0.231,
"home": 0.4306
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3542
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2709,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0134,
"implied_prob": 0.231,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3384,
"draw": 0.231,
"home": 0.4306
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2485
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3812,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0388,
"ev": -0.1656,
"implied_prob": 0.4306,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3384,
"draw": 0.231,
"home": 0.4306
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3917
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": 0.018,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.97,
"edge": 0.0437,
"ev": 0.1737,
"implied_prob": 0.2519,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.1408,
"ev": -0.2999,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0858,
"alpha_yes": 0.1888,
"best_no_odd": 3.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.31,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1568,
"edge_yes": -0.1568,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.456,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.044,
"ev_yes": -0.286,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1247,
"implied_no": 0.2982,
"implied_yes": 0.7018,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0858,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.2968,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3104
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1888,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.7032,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6733
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3104,
"p_final_yes": 0.6733,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1688,
"alpha_under": 0.1228,
"best_over_odd": 1.33,
"best_under_odd": 3.13,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.31,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.97,
"edge_over": -0.2122,
"edge_under": 0.2122,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3589,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1378,
"ev_under": 0.6213,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0137,
"implied_over": 0.6942,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6939,
"implied_under": 0.3058,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3061,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1688,
"best_odd": 1.31,
"edge": -0.0358,
"ev": -0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.6939,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6581
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1228,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": -0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.3061,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3321
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6581,
"p_final_under": 0.3321,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6213,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6213,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6213,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6213,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6213,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rana at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rana as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rana",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +62.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +62.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +62.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+62.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rana, but the model still strongly favours Rana.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.04,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0181,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.3384,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Rana"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0136,
"market_prob": 0.2968,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.2968,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3104
},
"p_final": 0.3104,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.044,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.7032,
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},
"edge": 0.1568,
"ev": 0.456,
"implied_prob": 0.2982,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"edge": 0.026,
"market_prob": 0.3061,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
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"edge": -0.0358,
"ev": -0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.6939,
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},
"p_final": 0.3321,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0137,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": -0.0137,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2122,
"ev": 0.6213,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1496339,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6213,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.456,
"implied_prob": 0.2982,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.456,
"implied_prob": 0.2982,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Rana",
"home": "Junkeren"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6213,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.04,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0181,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1496339,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:56:14.039916+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda División - Grupo 2 de Noruega — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eidsvold | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 48 |
| 2 | Levanger | 20 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 45 |
| 3 | Kjelsås | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 44 |
| 4 | Hønefoss | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 42 |
| 5 | Grorud | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | Stjørdals-Blink | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 30 |
| 7 | Lørenskog | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Tromsdalen UIL | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 29 |
| 9 | Junkeren | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 28 |
| 10 | Rana | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 11 | Skeid | 20 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 17 |
| 12 | Follo | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 21 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 10 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levanger | 20 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 45 |
| 2 | Hønefoss | 20 | 51 | 28 | +23 | 42 |
| 3 | Kjelsås | 21 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 44 |
| 4 | Eidsvold | 20 | 48 | 16 | +32 | 48 |
| 5 | Stjørdals-Blink | 21 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 30 |
| 6 | Grorud | 20 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 37 |
| 7 | Tromsdalen UIL | 20 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 29 |
| 8 | Rana | 20 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 24 |
| 9 | Lørenskog | 20 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 30 |
| 10 | Junkeren | 20 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Skeid | 20 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 17 |
| 12 | Follo | 21 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 14 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 21 | 25 | 70 | -45 | 10 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 20 | 23 | 47 | -24 | 9 |
