AI correctly predicted the Hønefoss win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Hønefoss Hønefoss ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rana | 34.2% | 28.2% | +6.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.6% | +6.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Hønefoss | 36.1% | 48.1% | -12.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Hønefoss's win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Hønefoss win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Hønefoss than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Hønefoss higher (48.1% vs model 36.1%, 12.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Hønefoss win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rana 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Hønefoss 36.1%
- xG · Rana 1.28 — Hønefoss 1.32
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rana 3.24 · Draw 3.87 · Hønefoss 1.90
- Implied 1X2 · Rana 28.2% · Draw 23.6% · Hønefoss 48.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Rana 3.24 · Draw 3.87 · Hønefoss 1.90
- Implied 1X2 · Rana 28.2% · Draw 23.6% · Hønefoss 48.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hønefoss win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
39/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Hønefoss win · Rana 0–1 Hønefoss
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_chain": {
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},
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"why": [
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},
{
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},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
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},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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}
],
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},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
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],
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"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
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}
],
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"primary": {
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"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
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"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
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"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
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"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1979,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4814,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3143,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.03,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.03,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -11.7%",
"steam_team": "Rana",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates H\u00f8nefoss at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies H\u00f8nefoss as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "H\u00f8nefoss",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1979,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4814,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3143,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rana 1.28 xG vs H\u00f8nefoss 1.32 \u2192 H\u00f8nefoss 36.1%",
"Market: H\u00f8nefoss ~48.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Rana \u2193 -11.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours H\u00f8nefoss, but sharp money moved toward Rana.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.01,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Rana",
"market_prob": 28.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.02,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.03,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "H\u00f8nefoss",
"market_prob": 48.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -23.08,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 71.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 23.08,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 28.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.16,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 70.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.16,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 29.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "H\u00f8nefoss",
"market_prob_pct": 48.14,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Rana"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates H\u00f8nefoss\u0027s win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.03,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "H\u00f8nefoss",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rana 1.28 xG vs H\u00f8nefoss 1.32 \u2192 H\u00f8nefoss 36.1%",
"Market: H\u00f8nefoss ~48.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Rana \u2193 -11.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours H\u00f8nefoss, but sharp money moved toward Rana.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.03,
"hero_label": "H\u00f8nefoss",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Rana odds shortened \u2193 -11.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Rana, with odds shortening by 11.7%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about H\u00f8nefoss than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Rana \u2014 odds shortened by 11.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about H\u00f8nefoss than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Rana, with odds shortening by 11.7%.",
"Buying interest on Rana \u2014 odds shortened by 11.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors H\u00f8nefoss more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Rana has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 11.7%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.03,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "H\u00f8nefoss",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices H\u00f8nefoss higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.01,
"edge_pp": 6.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rana",
"market_prob_pct": 28.23,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.02,
"edge_pp": 6.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.63,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.03,
"edge_pp": -12.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "H\u00f8nefoss",
"market_prob_pct": 48.14,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Rana \u2014 odds shortened by 11.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers H\u00f8nefoss (48.1%).",
"However, Rana has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -11.7%, 4/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 H\u00f8nefoss, Market \u2192 H\u00f8nefoss, Recent sharp money \u2192 Rana.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
"closing_odds": 1.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.63,
"entry_odds": 1.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.7
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.24,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Rana (11.7%, 4/7) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.67",
"3.46",
"3.24"
],
"display": "3.84 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.24",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h",
"pick_team": "Rana",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.84"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.24"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.67,
3.24
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.67"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.24"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.67"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.24"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.67,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Rana",
"ref_book": "Pinnacle",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.24,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.7%",
"open_odds": 3.67,
"summary": "Market moved toward Rana while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Rana",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 59,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 3.24,
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.7%",
"open_odds": 3.67,
"pick_team": "Rana",
"steam_score": 59,
"steam_team_name": "Rana",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hnefoss",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "H\u00f8nefoss",
"away_team_id": 6998,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6998.webp",
"away_team_name": "H\u00f8nefoss",
"away_team_public_id": "4RGjfrI8iQaR1n",
"away_team_slug": "hnefoss",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1496332,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Rana",
"home_team_id": 16229,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16229.webp",
"home_team_name": "Rana",
"home_team_public_id": "1Ca60yGR5U6Zb7",
"home_team_slug": "rana",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rana",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n - Grupo 2 de Noruega",
"league_id": 474,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/474.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n - Grupo 2 de Noruega",
"league_public_id": "3xMwFDaJUU2RBu",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 16:00:00",
"public_id": "2aBB8eE7zRycbv",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Mo i Rana",
"venue_name": "Sagbakken Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4916,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0592,
"ev": -0.1979,
"implied_prob": 0.4814,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4814,
"draw": 0.2363,
"home": 0.2823
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4222
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2728,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0217,
"implied_prob": 0.2363,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4814,
"draw": 0.2363,
"home": 0.2823
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2528
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.273,
"best_odd": 3.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0322,
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4814,
"draw": 0.2363,
"home": 0.2823
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2987
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": -0.1654,
"ev": -0.3142,
"implied_prob": 0.5263,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.0383,
"ev": 0.1481,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.24,
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": 0.1094,
"implied_prob": 0.3086,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0856,
"alpha_yes": 0.1884,
"best_no_odd": 3.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.3,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1616,
"edge_yes": -0.1616,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4788,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0533,
"ev_yes": -0.2915,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1336,
"implied_no": 0.2934,
"implied_yes": 0.7066,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0856,
"best_odd": 3.06,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0533,
"implied_prob": 0.2957,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3094
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 1.285,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1336,
"implied_prob": 0.7043,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6743
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3094,
"p_final_yes": 0.6743,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1621,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.3,
"best_under_odd": 3.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.27,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.14,
"edge_over": -0.2308,
"edge_under": 0.2308,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3734,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1431,
"ev_under": 0.7094,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.038,
"implied_over": 0.7128,
"implied_over_mf": 0.712,
"implied_under": 0.2872,
"implied_under_mf": 0.288,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1621,
"best_odd": 1.27,
"edge": -0.0373,
"ev": -0.1431,
"implied_prob": 0.712,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6747
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.14,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.288,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3064
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6747,
"p_final_under": 0.3064,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates H\u00f8nefoss at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies H\u00f8nefoss as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "H\u00f8nefoss",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Rana, but the model still strongly favours H\u00f8nefoss.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1979,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4814,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3143,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0592,
"ev": -0.1979,
"implied_prob": 0.4814,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "H\u00f8nefoss"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0856,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"edge": 0.0136,
"market_prob": 0.2957,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0856,
"best_odd": 3.06,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0533,
"implied_prob": 0.2957,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3094
},
"p_final": 0.3094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0533,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 1.285,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1336,
"implied_prob": 0.7043,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6743
}
},
"edge": 0.1616,
"ev": 0.4788,
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.14,
"edge": 0.0184,
"market_prob": 0.288,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1621,
"best_odd": 1.27,
"edge": -0.0373,
"ev": -0.1431,
"implied_prob": 0.712,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6747
},
"p_final": 0.3064,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.038,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.14,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.288,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3064
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2308,
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.2872,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1496332,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7094,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4788,
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4788,
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "H\u00f8nefoss",
"home": "Rana"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.257228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.2872,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1979,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4814,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3143,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1496332,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T15:56:26.261634+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda División - Grupo 2 de Noruega — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eidsvold | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 48 |
| 2 | Levanger | 20 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 45 |
| 3 | Kjelsås | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 44 |
| 4 | Hønefoss | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 42 |
| 5 | Grorud | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | Stjørdals-Blink | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 30 |
| 7 | Lørenskog | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Tromsdalen UIL | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 29 |
| 9 | Junkeren | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 28 |
| 10 | Rana | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 11 | Skeid | 20 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 17 |
| 12 | Follo | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 21 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 10 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levanger | 20 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 45 |
| 2 | Hønefoss | 20 | 51 | 28 | +23 | 42 |
| 3 | Kjelsås | 21 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 44 |
| 4 | Eidsvold | 20 | 48 | 16 | +32 | 48 |
| 5 | Stjørdals-Blink | 21 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 30 |
| 6 | Grorud | 20 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 37 |
| 7 | Tromsdalen UIL | 20 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 29 |
| 8 | Rana | 20 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 24 |
| 9 | Lørenskog | 20 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 30 |
| 10 | Junkeren | 20 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Skeid | 20 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 17 |
| 12 | Follo | 21 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 14 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 21 | 25 | 70 | -45 | 10 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 20 | 23 | 47 | -24 | 9 |
