Auditoría de predicción: SJK vs VPS Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Jun 17, 2026 - 18:00
1 2.83
2 1.56
xG Accuracy: 54%

The model missed the final outcome (VPS win 1–2).

The model had projected SJK at 63.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Grado de predicción C

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
  • 1X2 SJK VPS ✖ Incorrecto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 3-1, 2-2, 3-2, 1-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrecto

Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre

Strong Disagreement

The model rates SJK considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Mayor brecha de probabilidad: SJK +23.8 pp

Resultado Modelo Mercado de cierre Diferencia Señal
SJK 63.3% 39.5% +23.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 18.1% 27.1% -8.9 pp Market Higher
VPS 18.6% 33.4% -14.8 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates SJK's win probability at 63.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 39.5%, a difference of 23.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue VPS win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.39) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned SJK; match finished VPS
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SJK by 23.8 percentage points (39.5% vs model 63.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse

Cronología de predicción

Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.

  1. Jun 17, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SJK 63.3% · Draw 18.1% · VPS 18.6%
    • xG · SJK 2.83 — VPS 1.56
  2. Jun 17, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SJK 2.45 · Draw 3.58 · VPS 2.90
    • Implied 1X2 · SJK 39.5% · Draw 27.1% · VPS 33.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 17, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SJK 2.45 · Draw 3.58 · VPS 2.90
    • Implied 1X2 · SJK 39.5% · Draw 27.1% · VPS 33.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 17, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result VPS win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Instantánea histórica

Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.

Veredicto histórico: Cautious / Wait

Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Decisión histórica Wait
Resultado Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción 39/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (110%+)
Evidencia ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 25/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1546991

Closing Odds 2.45
AI Fair Odds 1.58
CLV Pending
Final Result VPS win · SJK 1–2 VPS
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 63.3%
  • Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Revisar preguntas frecuentes

¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.

Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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        "alert_breadth_note": "6/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
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        {
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          "outcome": "under"
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        {
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          "fair_prob": 75.0,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 57.74,
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          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -17.26,
          "fair_prob": 25.0,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 42.26,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
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        "edge_pp": 23.76,
        "fair_prob_pct": 63.3,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "SJK",
        "market_prob_pct": 39.54,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "VPS"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
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        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "extreme",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 23.76,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": true
        },
        "divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "extreme",
        "divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
        "divergence_tier": "extreme",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "SJK",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 39.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 63.3,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on SJK, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 23.76,
        "hero_label": "SJK",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "VPS odds shortened \u2193 -3.0%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "max_gap_pp": 23.76,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 44.7 pp (at 63.3%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 44.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 63.3,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 23.76,
            "fair_prob_pct": 63.3,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "SJK",
            "market_prob_pct": 39.54,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -8.93,
            "fair_prob_pct": 18.13,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.06,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -14.83,
            "fair_prob_pct": 18.57,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "VPS",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.4,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers SJK (39.5%).",
          "VPS has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.0%, 6/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 SJK, Market \u2192 SJK, Recent sharp money \u2192 VPS.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 40.82,
        "closing_odds": 2.45,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 40.82,
        "entry_odds": 2.45,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 6,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "6/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.62,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
        "move_pct_abs": 3.0,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 48m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Volatile two-way pricing on VPS (swing 3.15 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.62) \u2014 net 3.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.15 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.62",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 48m",
          "pick_team": "VPS",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.15"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.62"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.62"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,12.9 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "volatile",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.7,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Volatile",
        "phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
        "pick_team": "VPS",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "warn",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
        "signal_key": "volatile_market",
        "signal_label": "Volatile market",
        "steam_score": 26,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "6/13",
        "current_odds": 2.62,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.7,
        "pick_team": "VPS",
        "steam_score": 26,
        "steam_team_name": "VPS",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 23.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 650,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/650.webp",
      "away_team_name": "VPS",
      "country_code": "FI",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
      "country_name": "Finland",
      "fixture_id": 1495708,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Finland",
      "home_team_id": 689,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/689.webp",
      "home_team_name": "SJK",
      "league_country": "Finland",
      "league_id": 244,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/244.webp",
      "league_name": "Veikkausliiga",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-17 18:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Seinajoki",
      "venue_name": "OmaSp Stadion"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.35,
            "best_odd": 2.9,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0519,
            "ev": -0.1817,
            "implied_prob": 0.334,
            "model_prob": 0.1859,
            "p_final": 0.2822
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2598,
            "best_odd": 3.58,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0232,
            "ev": -0.1145,
            "implied_prob": 0.2706,
            "model_prob": 0.1812,
            "p_final": 0.2474
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2896,
            "best_odd": 2.45,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0688,
            "ev": 0.1373,
            "implied_prob": 0.3954,
            "model_prob": 0.6329,
            "p_final": 0.4642
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.25,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
          "edge_no": -0.1726,
          "edge_yes": 0.1726,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.4375,
          "ev_yes": 0.215,
          "implied_no": 0.4226,
          "implied_yes": 0.5774,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.81,
          "best_under_odd": 2.09,
          "edge_over": 0.2807,
          "edge_under": -0.2807,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.4733,
          "ev_under": -0.6113,
          "implied_over": 0.5333,
          "implied_under": 0.4667,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 4.39,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.4733,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.75,
          "draw_prob": 0.1812,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6329,
          "over_prob": 0.814,
          "total_xg": 4.39,
          "under_prob": 0.186,
          "xg_diff": 1.27
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0688,
          "ev": 0.1373,
          "implied_prob": 0.3954,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.6329,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "SJK"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1726,
          "ev": 0.215,
          "implied_prob": 0.5774,
          "model_prob": 0.75,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2807,
          "ev": 0.4733,
          "implied_prob": 0.5333,
          "model_prob": 0.814,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1495708,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.4733,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1859,
        "draw": 0.1812,
        "home": 0.6329
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.215,
        "implied_prob": 0.5774,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.75,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.215,
          "implied_prob": 0.5774,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.75,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        },
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1373,
          "implied_prob": 0.3954,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.6329,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "SJK",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "VPS",
        "home": "SJK"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.385266,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.4733,
        "implied_prob": 0.5333,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.814,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1495708,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T17:59:12.939011+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Volver a Predicciones
Veikkausliiga Veikkausliiga — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 42
3 HJK Helsinki 22 11 4 7 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 32
8 Turku PS 22 8 7 7 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 19
11 FF Jaro 22 3 6 13 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 14
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 KuPS 22 38 23 +15 43
2 HJK Helsinki 22 36 27 +9 37
3 Gnistan 22 36 29 +7 36
4 Ilves 22 34 37 -3 25
5 Inter Turku 22 29 16 +13 42
6 VPS 22 29 22 +7 33
7 Turku PS 22 28 23 +5 31
8 Lahti 22 26 19 +7 32
9 AC Oulu 22 25 25 0 34
10 SJK 22 25 33 -8 19
11 FF Jaro 22 18 44 -26 15
12 Mariehamn 22 17 43 -26 14
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 Ilves 22 4.2 1.7 +2.5 25
2 AC Oulu 22 2.7 2.2 +0.5 34
3 HJK Helsinki 22 2.0 1.6 +0.4 37
4 KuPS 22 2.3 2.0 +0.3 43
5 SJK 22 2.5 2.4 +0.1 19
6 Lahti 22 2.4 2.5 -0.1 32
7 VPS 22 2.0 2.3 -0.3 33
8 Mariehamn 22 2.2 2.7 -0.5 14
9 Turku PS 22 0.9 1.6 -0.7 31
10 FF Jaro 22 2.4 4.6 -2.2 15
11 Inter Turku 22 — — — 42
12 Gnistan 22 — — — 36