The model missed the final outcome (Malmo FF win 1–2).
The model had projected IF Brommapojkarna at 48.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 IF Brommapojkarna Malmo FF ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF Brommapojkarna | 48.5% | 29.6% | +18.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 23.6% | 25.9% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Malmo FF | 27.9% | 44.5% | -16.6 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates IF Brommapojkarna's win probability at 48.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.6%, a difference of 18.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Malmo FF win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on IF Brommapojkarna.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.57) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned IF Brommapojkarna; match finished Malmo FF
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on IF Brommapojkarna by 18.9 percentage points (29.6% vs model 48.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · IF Brommapojkarna 48.5% · Draw 23.6% · Malmo FF 27.9%
- xG · IF Brommapojkarna 2.04 — Malmo FF 1.53
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · IF Brommapojkarna 3.24 · Draw 3.70 · Malmo FF 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · IF Brommapojkarna 29.6% · Draw 25.9% · Malmo FF 44.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · IF Brommapojkarna 3.24 · Draw 3.70 · Malmo FF 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · IF Brommapojkarna 29.6% · Draw 25.9% · Malmo FF 44.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Malmo FF win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
48/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
1/100
Monitoring Confidence
17/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.24
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Malmo FF win · IF Brommapojkarna 1–2 Malmo FF
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"has_data": true,
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{
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{
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},
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{
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"authority_note": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna.",
"consensus_odds": 3.24,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0896,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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{
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"alert_team": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.89,
"hero_label": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"market_prob_pct": 29.6,
"market_team": "Malmo FF",
"model_prob_pct": 48.5,
"model_team": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0896,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.571,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees IF Brommapojkarna at 48.5% vs market 29.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies IF Brommapojkarna as the stronger side (48.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side IF Brommapojkarna \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.24 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1494226 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.24 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0896,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.24,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2956,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4849,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30864197530864196,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5711,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.51"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.51
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6428571428571429,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.4,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 49,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.89,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.89,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.53,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.04,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.04,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.04 \u00b7 Away xG 1.53 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +51%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"steam_team": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0896,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.571,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees IF Brommapojkarna at 48.5% vs market 29.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies IF Brommapojkarna as the stronger side (48.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side IF Brommapojkarna \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.24 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1494226 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.24 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0896,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.24,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2956,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4849,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30864197530864196,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5711,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.51"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.51
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: IF Brommapojkarna 2.04 xG vs Malmo FF 1.53 \u2192 IF Brommapojkarna 48.5%",
"Market: Malmo FF ~29.6% implied",
"Market Drift: IF Brommapojkarna odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours IF Brommapojkarna, but the market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 18.89,
"fair_prob": 48.45,
"label": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"market_prob": 29.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.24,
"fair_prob": 23.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.65,
"fair_prob": 27.9,
"label": "Malmo FF",
"market_prob": 44.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 69.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 69.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 18.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.45,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"market_prob_pct": 29.56,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "IF Brommapojkarna"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates IF Brommapojkarna\u0027s win probability at 48.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.6%, a difference of 18.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 18.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+18.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 18.9,
"model_prob_pct": 48.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+18.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 49,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: IF Brommapojkarna 2.04 xG vs Malmo FF 1.53 \u2192 IF Brommapojkarna 48.5%",
"Market: Malmo FF ~29.6% implied",
"Market Drift: IF Brommapojkarna odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours IF Brommapojkarna, but the market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.89,
"hero_label": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "IF Brommapojkarna odds lengthened \u2191 +3.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on IF Brommapojkarna.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on IF Brommapojkarna.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on IF Brommapojkarna.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on IF Brommapojkarna."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors IF Brommapojkarna more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on IF Brommapojkarna (\u2191 +3.2%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 20.6 pp (at 48.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 20.6,
"max_prob_pct": 48.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"largest_gap_pp": 18.9,
"lead": "The model rates IF Brommapojkarna considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 18.89,
"edge_pp": 18.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.45,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"market_prob_pct": 29.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.24,
"edge_pp": -2.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.89,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -16.65,
"edge_pp": -16.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.9,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Malmo FF",
"market_prob_pct": 44.55,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on IF Brommapojkarna.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Malmo FF (29.6%).",
"IF Brommapojkarna odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.2%, 9/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 IF Brommapojkarna, Market \u2192 Malmo FF, while IF Brommapojkarna odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.86,
"closing_odds": 3.24,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.86,
"entry_odds": 3.24,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "9/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 133h 5m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on IF Brommapojkarna (3.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.24",
"3.17",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.25 \u2192 2.85 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 133h 5m",
"pick_team": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.85"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.24,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.24"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from IF Brommapojkarna while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/14",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_team_name": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Malmo FF",
"away_team_id": 375,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/375.webp",
"away_team_name": "Malmo FF",
"away_team_slug": "malmo-ff",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1494226,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"home_team_id": 371,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/371.webp",
"home_team_name": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"home_team_slug": "if-brommapojkarna",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Allsvenskan",
"league_id": 113,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/113.webp",
"league_name": "Allsvenskan",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-02 12:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Stockholm",
"venue_name": "Grimsta IP"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3376,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0562,
"ev": -0.163,
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4455,
"draw": 0.2589,
"home": 0.2956
},
"model_prob": 0.279,
"p_final": 0.3893
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2898,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.2589,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4455,
"draw": 0.2589,
"home": 0.2956
},
"model_prob": 0.2361,
"p_final": 0.2523
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 3.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0407,
"ev": 0.0896,
"implied_prob": 0.2956,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4455,
"draw": 0.2589,
"home": 0.2956
},
"model_prob": 0.4849,
"p_final": 0.3363
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.1861,
"ev": -0.4001,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.279
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.2361
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.24,
"edge": 0.1762,
"ev": 0.571,
"implied_prob": 0.3086,
"model_prob": 0.4849
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.57,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0896,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.571,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0896,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0896,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.571,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees IF Brommapojkarna at 48.5% vs market 29.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies IF Brommapojkarna as the stronger side (48.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side IF Brommapojkarna \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.24 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1494226 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.24 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from IF Brommapojkarna, but the model still strongly favours IF Brommapojkarna.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0896,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.24,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2956,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4849,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30864197530864196,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5711,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.51"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.51
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.693,
"draw_prob": 0.2361,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4849,
"over_prob": 0.692,
"total_xg": 3.57,
"under_prob": 0.308,
"xg_diff": 0.51
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.24,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0407,
"ev": 0.0896,
"implied_prob": 0.2956,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4849,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "IF Brommapojkarna"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.693,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.692,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1494226,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0896,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.5,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.279,
"draw": 0.2361,
"home": 0.4849
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Malmo FF",
"home": "IF Brommapojkarna"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.034758,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0896,
"implied_prob": 0.2956,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4849,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "IF Brommapojkarna",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0896,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.24,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2956,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4849,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30864197530864196,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5711,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1494226,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-02T11:59:06.888884+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Allsvenskan — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IK Sirius | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 51 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 43 |
| 3 | Djurgårdens IF | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 41 |
| 4 | IF Elfsborg | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 37 |
| 5 | BK Häcken | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 36 |
| 6 | Västerås SK | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 33 |
| 8 | AIK Estocolmo | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 9 | IFK Göteborg | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 10 | GAIS | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 12 | Mjällby AIF | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 |
| 15 | Örgryte IS | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 15 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IK Sirius | 22 | 52 | 28 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 22 | 49 | 20 | +29 | 43 |
| 3 | Djurgårdens IF | 22 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 41 |
| 4 | BK Häcken | 22 | 39 | 30 | +9 | 36 |
| 5 | Malmo FF | 22 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 33 |
| 6 | Västerås SK | 22 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 35 |
| 7 | IF Elfsborg | 22 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | AIK Estocolmo | 22 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | IFK Göteborg | 22 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 32 |
| 10 | IF Brommapojkarna | 22 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 27 |
| 11 | GAIS | 22 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 30 |
| 12 | Mjällby AIF | 22 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 22 |
| 13 | Örgryte IS | 22 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 15 |
| 14 | Kalmar FF | 22 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 19 |
| 15 | Degerfors IF | 22 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 19 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 22 | 16 | 40 | -24 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalmar FF | 22 | 1.6 | 0.5 | +1.1 | 19 |
| 2 | IFK Göteborg | 22 | 1.9 | 0.9 | +1.0 | 32 |
| 3 | Malmo FF | 22 | 1.3 | 0.6 | +0.7 | 33 |
| 4 | AIK Estocolmo | 22 | 3.8 | 3.2 | +0.6 | 33 |
| 5 | Djurgårdens IF | 22 | 0.5 | 1.6 | -1.1 | 41 |
| 6 | Mjällby AIF | 22 | 2.8 | 5.1 | -2.3 | 22 |
| 7 | IK Sirius | 22 | — | — | — | 51 |
| 8 | Hammarby FF | 22 | — | — | — | 43 |
| 9 | IF Elfsborg | 22 | — | — | — | 37 |
| 10 | BK Häcken | 22 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 11 | Västerås SK | 22 | — | — | — | 35 |
| 12 | GAIS | 22 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 13 | IF Brommapojkarna | 22 | — | — | — | 27 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 22 | — | — | — | 19 |
| 15 | Örgryte IS | 22 | — | — | — | 15 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 22 | — | — | — | 14 |
