Predicciones / Fútbol / Estados Unidos. USL League One / Union Omaha vs Spokane Velocity

Auditoría de predicción: Union Omaha vs Spokane Velocity Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Sep 16, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 62%

AI correctly predicted the Union Omaha win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Grado de predicción F

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
  • 1X2 Union Omaha Union Omaha ✔ Correcto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto

Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Mayor brecha de probabilidad: Union Omaha -3.1 pp

Resultado Modelo Mercado de cierre Diferencia Señal
Union Omaha 41.4% 44.5% -3.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 26.8% +2.6 pp Aligned
Spokane Velocity 29.2% 28.7% +0.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Union Omaha win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Union Omaha win 3–1).

Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse

Cronología de predicción

Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.

  1. Sep 16, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Union Omaha 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Spokane Velocity 29.3%
    • xG · Union Omaha 1.43 — Spokane Velocity 1.17
  2. Sep 16, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Union Omaha 2.06 · Draw 3.42 · Spokane Velocity 3.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Union Omaha 44.5% · Draw 26.8% · Spokane Velocity 28.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 16, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Union Omaha 2.06 · Draw 3.42 · Spokane Velocity 3.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Union Omaha 44.5% · Draw 26.8% · Spokane Velocity 28.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Union Omaha win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Instantánea histórica

Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.

Veredicto histórico: Observe
Decisión histórica No Primary Bet
Resultado Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidencia ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 84/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7924989

Closing Odds 2.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Union Omaha win · Union Omaha 3–1 Spokane Velocity
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Revisar preguntas frecuentes

¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.

Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Union Omaha",
          "no_primary_reasons": null,
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": true,
          "primary_block_explain": null,
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "ok"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "85 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "89 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 8,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha).",
            "Decision strength: 6.9/10"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 85,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV"
          ],
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "actionable",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.1112,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-11.1%",
            "consensus_odds": 2.06,
            "disagreement_label": "Normal",
            "disagreement_level": "normal",
            "implied_prob": 0.4448,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.4137,
            "raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.1478,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "ok",
            "deviation_pct": 5.9,
            "reasons": [],
            "recommended_action": "ok",
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "ok",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": 0,
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.26
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "primary",
        "books_breadth_display": "8/8",
        "breadth_ratio": 1.0,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 75,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam detected",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation passed",
              "status": "pass"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pass",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 23.5,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 10.0,
            "steam_coherence": 5.0,
            "validation": 30.0
          },
          "score": 85,
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 3.08,
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "max_gap_pp": 3.08,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.17,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 6.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.43,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.43,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.43 \u00b7 Away xG 1.17 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "pass",
        "odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
        "steam_conflicts": null,
        "steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
        "steam_team": "Union Omaha",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 89,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 84,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 41,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 84,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "primary",
            "label": "Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha).",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 3.1,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "high",
            "probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "primary",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 3.1,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "high",
              "probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate",
            "decision_strength": 6.9,
            "decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
            "decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
            "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
            "execution_confidence": 89,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": true,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Union Omaha at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Union Omaha as the value side (41.4%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                  "tone": "ok"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 3.1,
            "gates_failed": [],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u2713",
            "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Union Omaha",
            "no_primary_reasons": null,
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": true,
            "primary_block_explain": null,
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "85 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "89 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 8,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha).",
              "Decision strength: 6.9/10"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 85,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV"
            ],
            "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "actionable",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.1112,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-11.1%",
              "consensus_odds": 2.06,
              "disagreement_label": "Normal",
              "disagreement_level": "normal",
              "implied_prob": 0.4448,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.4137,
              "raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.1478,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "ok",
              "deviation_pct": 5.9,
              "reasons": [],
              "recommended_action": "ok",
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "ok",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": 0,
                "strength_delta": 0.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.26
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "tier": "actionable"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Union Omaha 1.43 xG vs Spokane Velocity 1.17 \u2192 Union Omaha 41.4%",
            "Market: Union Omaha ~44.5% implied",
            "Market Steam: Union Omaha +0.0%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Union Omaha with no major conflict.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -3.08,
          "fair_prob": 41.4,
          "label": "Union Omaha",
          "market_prob": 44.48,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.57,
          "fair_prob": 29.36,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 26.79,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 0.53,
          "fair_prob": 29.25,
          "label": "Spokane Velocity",
          "market_prob": 28.72,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.74,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 53.94,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.74,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 46.06,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -3.44,
          "fair_prob": 54.1,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 57.54,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.44,
          "fair_prob": 45.9,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 42.46,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": -3.08,
        "fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Union Omaha",
        "market_prob_pct": 44.48,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "Union Omaha"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 3.08,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Union Omaha",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 44.5,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": -3.1,
          "model_prob_pct": 41.4,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": -3.1,
            "label": "High",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "High reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 85,
          "reliability_tier": "high",
          "summary": "Union Omaha \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 89,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 84,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 41,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 84,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "primary",
              "label": "Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Union Omaha 1.43 xG vs Spokane Velocity 1.17 \u2192 Union Omaha 41.4%",
              "Market: Union Omaha ~44.5% implied",
              "Market Steam: Union Omaha +0.0%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Union Omaha with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -3.08,
        "hero_label": "Union Omaha",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Union Omaha.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Union Omaha."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "Recent line movement on Union Omaha (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Union Omaha."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 3.08,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
          "max_prob_pct": 41.4,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "aligned",
          "largest_gap_label": "Union Omaha",
          "largest_gap_pp": -3.1,
          "lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
          "level": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 3.1,
          "title": "Broadly Aligned"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": -3.08,
            "edge_pp": -3.08,
            "fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Union Omaha",
            "market_prob_pct": 44.48,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 2.57,
            "edge_pp": 2.57,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.79,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 0.53,
            "edge_pp": 0.53,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Spokane Velocity",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.72,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Union Omaha.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Union Omaha (44.5%).",
          "Union Omaha \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 48.54,
        "closing_odds": 2.06,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 48.54,
        "entry_odds": 2.06,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/8",
        "current_odds": 1.95,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 1.95,
        "pick_team": "Union Omaha",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "Union Omaha",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 3.1,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "spokane-velocity",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Spokane Velocity",
      "away_team_id": 22785,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22785.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Spokane Velocity",
      "away_team_public_id": "1UpD4RiUpYPjog",
      "away_team_slug": "spokane-velocity",
      "country_code": "US",
      "country_display_name": "USA",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
      "country_id": 163,
      "country_name": "USA",
      "fixture_id": 1493998,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "USA",
      "home_team_display_name": "Union Omaha",
      "home_team_id": 10283,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10283.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Union Omaha",
      "home_team_public_id": "0tn3dTwLSqbtzv",
      "home_team_slug": "union-omaha",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "union-omaha",
      "league_country": "USA",
      "league_country_display": "USA",
      "league_display_name": "USL League One",
      "league_id": 489,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/489.webp",
      "league_name": "USL League One",
      "league_public_id": "4MBWLKxzdtvygS",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-09-16 17:00:00",
      "public_id": "28dnnqbEE3mDcm",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": "Werner Park"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2975,
            "best_odd": 3.19,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0016,
            "ev": -0.0785,
            "implied_prob": 0.2872,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2872,
              "draw": 0.2679,
              "home": 0.4448
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2927,
            "p_final": 0.2889
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2885,
            "best_odd": 3.42,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0074,
            "ev": -0.0584,
            "implied_prob": 0.2679,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2872,
              "draw": 0.2679,
              "home": 0.4448
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2936,
            "p_final": 0.2753
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.429,
            "best_odd": 2.06,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0134,
            "ev": -0.1112,
            "implied_prob": 0.4448,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2872,
              "draw": 0.2679,
              "home": 0.4448
            },
            "model_prob": 0.4137,
            "p_final": 0.4315
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 3.19,
            "edge": -0.0208,
            "ev": -0.0662,
            "implied_prob": 0.3135,
            "model_prob": 0.2927
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.42,
            "edge": 0.0012,
            "ev": 0.0041,
            "implied_prob": 0.2924,
            "model_prob": 0.2936
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 2.06,
            "edge": -0.0717,
            "ev": -0.1478,
            "implied_prob": 0.4854,
            "model_prob": 0.4137
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.2123,
          "alpha_yes": 0.2335,
          "best_no_odd": 2.19,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": 0.0344,
          "edge_yes": -0.0344,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0052,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0771,
          "ev_yes": -0.1236,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1081,
          "implied_no": 0.4246,
          "implied_yes": 0.5754,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.2123,
              "best_odd": 2.15,
              "edge": 0.008,
              "ev": -0.0771,
              "implied_prob": 0.4213,
              "model_prob": 0.459,
              "p_final": 0.4293
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2335,
              "best_odd": 1.565,
              "edge": -0.0088,
              "ev": -0.1081,
              "implied_prob": 0.5787,
              "model_prob": 0.541,
              "p_final": 0.5699
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "p_final_no": 0.4293,
          "p_final_yes": 0.5699,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.2262,
          "alpha_under": 0.2057,
          "best_over_odd": 1.75,
          "best_under_odd": 2.05,
          "consensus_over_odd": 1.7,
          "consensus_under_odd": 1.99,
          "edge_over": -0.0574,
          "edge_under": 0.0574,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1565,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1052,
          "ev_under": 0.0619,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0597,
          "implied_over": 0.5394,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.5393,
          "implied_under": 0.4606,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.4607,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 6,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.2262,
              "best_odd": 1.7,
              "edge": -0.013,
              "ev": -0.1052,
              "implied_prob": 0.5393,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.5263
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2057,
              "best_odd": 1.99,
              "edge": 0.0118,
              "ev": -0.0597,
              "implied_prob": 0.4607,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.4725
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.5263,
          "p_final_under": 0.4725,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 6.9,
        "score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 6.9,
        "score_pre_penalty": 6.9
      },
      "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "primary",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "primary",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 3.1,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "high",
          "probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate",
        "decision_strength": 6.9,
        "decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
        "decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
        "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
        "execution_confidence": 89,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": true,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Union Omaha at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Union Omaha as the value side (41.4%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 3.1,
        "gates_failed": [],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u2713",
        "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Union Omaha",
        "no_primary_reasons": null,
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": true,
        "primary_block_explain": null,
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "85 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "89 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 8,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha).",
          "Decision strength: 6.9/10"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 85,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "actionable",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.1112,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-11.1%",
          "consensus_odds": 2.06,
          "disagreement_label": "Normal",
          "disagreement_level": "normal",
          "implied_prob": 0.4448,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.4137,
          "raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.1478,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 5.9,
          "reasons": [],
          "recommended_action": "ok",
          "strength_delta": 0.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "ok",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": 0,
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.26
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
          "draw_prob": 0.2936,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.26
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 2.06,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0134,
          "ev": -0.1112,
          "implied_prob": 0.4448,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.4137,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Union Omaha"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.2123,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.15,
            "edge": 0.008,
            "market_prob": 0.4213,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.459,
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.2123,
              "best_odd": 2.15,
              "edge": 0.008,
              "ev": -0.0771,
              "implied_prob": 0.4213,
              "model_prob": 0.459,
              "p_final": 0.4293
            },
            "p_final": 0.4293,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0771,
            "value_side": "no",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2335,
              "best_odd": 1.565,
              "edge": -0.0088,
              "ev": -0.1081,
              "implied_prob": 0.5787,
              "model_prob": 0.541,
              "p_final": 0.5699
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.0344,
          "ev": 0.0052,
          "implied_prob": 0.4246,
          "model_prob": 0.459,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.2057,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.99,
            "edge": 0.0118,
            "market_prob": 0.4607,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.518,
            "n_bookmakers": 6,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.2262,
              "best_odd": 1.7,
              "edge": -0.013,
              "ev": -0.1052,
              "implied_prob": 0.5393,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.5263
            },
            "p_final": 0.4725,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0597,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2057,
              "best_odd": 1.99,
              "edge": 0.0118,
              "ev": -0.0597,
              "implied_prob": 0.4607,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.4725
            },
            "value_side": "under"
          },
          "edge": 0.0574,
          "ev": 0.0619,
          "implied_prob": 0.4606,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1493998,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2927,
        "draw": 0.2936,
        "home": 0.4137
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "show_betting_primary_label": true,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Spokane Velocity",
        "home": "Union Omaha"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.022445,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0619,
        "implied_prob": 0.4606,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.1112,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-11.1%",
        "consensus_odds": 2.06,
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "implied_prob": 0.4448,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.4137,
        "raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.1478,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1493998,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T16:59:42.027190+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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USL League One USL League One — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Union Omaha 28 18 4 6 58
2 Charlotte Independence 28 17 6 5 57
3 Forward Madison 28 15 6 7 51
4 One Knoxville 27 13 8 6 47
5 Boise 27 13 7 7 46
6 Chattanooga Red Wolves 26 13 4 9 43
7 Spokane Velocity 25 13 4 8 43
8 Fort Wayne 27 10 8 9 38
9 Sarasota Paradise 27 9 6 12 33
10 Corpus Christi 26 8 9 9 33
11 Alta 28 8 8 12 32
12 Portland Hearts of Pine 28 7 9 12 30
13 Westchester SC 27 8 5 14 29
14 Naples 26 8 4 14 28
15 Greenville Triumph 26 6 5 15 23
16 NY Cosmos 26 6 4 16 22
17 Richmond Kickers 26 5 5 16 20
18 Tormenta 0 0 0 0 0
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Charlotte Independence 28 64 40 +24 57
2 Forward Madison 28 50 27 +23 51
3 Union Omaha 28 50 30 +20 58
4 Chattanooga Red Wolves 26 47 38 +9 43
5 Westchester SC 27 46 45 +1 29
6 One Knoxville 27 44 31 +13 47
7 Boise 27 43 37 +6 46
8 Fort Wayne 27 42 36 +6 38
9 Portland Hearts of Pine 28 40 50 -10 30
10 Spokane Velocity 25 37 33 +4 43
11 Sarasota Paradise 27 37 40 -3 33
12 Alta 28 34 40 -6 32
13 NY Cosmos 26 32 52 -20 22
14 Corpus Christi 26 30 36 -6 33
15 Naples 26 29 43 -14 28
16 Greenville Triumph 26 29 48 -19 23
17 Richmond Kickers 26 25 53 -28 20
18 Tormenta 0 0 0 0 0