AI correctly predicted the Portland Hearts of Pine win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Portland Hearts of Pine Portland Hearts of Pine ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Portland Hearts of Pine win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Portland Hearts of Pine 1.42 — Westchester SC 1.18
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Portland Hearts of Pine win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Portland Hearts of Pine win · Portland Hearts of Pine 2–1 Westchester SC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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}
],
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"alert_breadth_note": "1/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.4%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.1,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
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{
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
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},
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
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"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Portland Hearts of Pine at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Portland Hearts of Pine as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Portland Hearts of Pine",
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
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"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1041,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.16666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.7,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.07,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"steam_team": "Westchester SC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Portland Hearts of Pine at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Portland Hearts of Pine as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Portland Hearts of Pine",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1041,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Portland Hearts of Pine 1.42 xG vs Westchester SC 1.18 \u2192 Portland Hearts of Pine 40.9%",
"Market: Portland Hearts of Pine ~43.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Westchester SC \u2193 -3.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Portland Hearts of Pine, but sharp money moved toward Westchester SC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.35,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Portland Hearts of Pine",
"market_prob": 43.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.72,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Westchester SC",
"market_prob": 32.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.41,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.41,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.06,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.06,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.33,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Westchester SC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.3%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Portland Hearts of Pine",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.4,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Portland Hearts of Pine 1.42 xG vs Westchester SC 1.18 \u2192 Portland Hearts of Pine 40.9%",
"Market: Portland Hearts of Pine ~43.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Westchester SC \u2193 -3.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Portland Hearts of Pine, but sharp money moved toward Westchester SC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.07,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Westchester SC odds shortened \u2193 -3.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Westchester SC, with odds shortening by 3.4%. Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Westchester SC, with odds shortening by 3.4%. Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Westchester SC has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.4%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/6), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.1,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.35,
"edge_pp": -2.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Portland Hearts of Pine",
"market_prob_pct": 43.26,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.07,
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.33,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.72,
"edge_pp": -2.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Westchester SC",
"market_prob_pct": 32.41,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Portland Hearts of Pine (43.3%).",
"Westchester SC has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.4%, 1/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Portland Hearts of Pine, Market \u2192 Portland Hearts of Pine, Recent sharp money \u2192 Westchester SC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.53,
"closing_odds": 3.77,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.53,
"entry_odds": 3.77,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 51m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Westchester SC (swing 2.92 \u2192 2.63 \u2192 2.80) \u2014 net 3.4% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.90",
"2.85",
"2.80"
],
"display": "2.92 \u2192 2.63 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 51m",
"pick_team": "Westchester SC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.92"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.63"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
2.83,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,12.6 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Westchester SC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Market moved toward Westchester SC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Westchester SC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "Westchester SC",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_team_name": "Westchester SC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Westchester SC",
"away_team_id": 25488,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/25488.webp",
"away_team_name": "Westchester SC",
"away_team_public_id": "3vhVw80KZFoAyQ",
"away_team_slug": "westchester-sc",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1493984,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Portland Hearts of Pine",
"home_team_id": 25486,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/25486.webp",
"home_team_name": "Portland Hearts of Pine",
"home_team_public_id": "1tYqwLm2aSRgXl",
"home_team_slug": "portland-hearts-of-pine",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "USL League One",
"league_id": 489,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/489.webp",
"league_name": "USL League One",
"league_public_id": "4MBWLKxzdtvygS",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 22:00:00",
"public_id": "1Vvof2iouCz2Ng",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Fitzpatrick Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4314,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.3241,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3241,
"draw": 0.2433,
"home": 0.4326
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3122
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2772,
"best_odd": 3.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0299,
"implied_prob": 0.2433,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3241,
"draw": 0.2433,
"home": 0.4326
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2573
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4344,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.4326,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3241,
"draw": 0.2433,
"home": 0.4326
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.4226
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": -0.0568,
"ev": -0.1608,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.77,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.1081,
"implied_prob": 0.2653,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.0621,
"ev": -0.1317,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1576,
"alpha_yes": 0.2167,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.47,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0806,
"edge_yes": -0.0806,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1245,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0604,
"ev_yes": -0.2047,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1182,
"implied_no": 0.3784,
"implied_yes": 0.6216,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1576,
"best_odd": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.376,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3891
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2167,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.018,
"ev": -0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.624,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.606
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3891,
"p_final_yes": 0.606,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2045,
"alpha_under": 0.1487,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.54,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.29,
"edge_over": -0.1141,
"edge_under": 0.1141,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1157,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0397,
"implied_over": 0.5961,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5979,
"implied_under": 0.4039,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4021,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2045,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5742
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.4021,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4193
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5742,
"p_final_under": 0.4193,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Portland Hearts of Pine at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Portland Hearts of Pine as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Portland Hearts of Pine",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Westchester SC, but the model still strongly favours Portland Hearts of Pine.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1041,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.4326,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Portland Hearts of Pine"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1576,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0131,
"market_prob": 0.376,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1576,
"best_odd": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.376,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3891
},
"p_final": 0.3891,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0604,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2167,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.018,
"ev": -0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.624,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.606
}
},
"edge": 0.0806,
"ev": 0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0172,
"market_prob": 0.4021,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2045,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5742
},
"p_final": 0.4193,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0397,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.4021,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4193
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1141,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4039,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493984,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Westchester SC",
"home": "Portland Hearts of Pine"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4039,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1041,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493984,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T21:59:11.639279+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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USL League One — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 30 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 61 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 60 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 52 |
| 4 | Boise | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 52 |
| 5 | One Knoxville | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 47 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 45 |
| 9 | Naples | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 37 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | Westchester SC | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 33 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 |
| 13 | Alta | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 15 | NY Cosmos | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 23 |
| 18 | Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 29 | 67 | 42 | +25 | 60 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 30 | 53 | 32 | +21 | 61 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 29 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 52 |
| 4 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 50 | 43 | +7 | 46 |
| 5 | One Knoxville | 30 | 49 | 34 | +15 | 51 |
| 6 | Westchester SC | 29 | 48 | 46 | +2 | 33 |
| 7 | Boise | 30 | 47 | 40 | +7 | 52 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 30 | 46 | 37 | +9 | 45 |
| 9 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 30 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 31 |
| 10 | Spokane Velocity | 27 | 41 | 36 | +5 | 47 |
| 11 | Sarasota Paradise | 28 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 33 |
| 12 | NY Cosmos | 28 | 36 | 56 | -20 | 25 |
| 13 | Alta | 29 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 32 |
| 14 | Naples | 29 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 37 |
| 15 | Corpus Christi | 29 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 28 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 29 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 23 |
| 18 | Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
