The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Louisville City at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Louisville City Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartford Athletic | 33.3% | 36.6% | -3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.1% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Louisville City | 37.1% | 38.3% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hartford Athletic 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Louisville City 37.0%
- xG · Hartford Athletic 1.26 — Louisville City 1.34
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hartford Athletic 2.60 · Draw 3.80 · Louisville City 2.49
- Implied 1X2 · Hartford Athletic 36.6% · Draw 25.1% · Louisville City 38.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hartford Athletic 2.60 · Draw 3.80 · Louisville City 2.49
- Implied 1X2 · Hartford Athletic 36.6% · Draw 25.1% · Louisville City 38.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
77/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Hartford Athletic 2–2 Louisville City
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City.",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0604,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -6.0,
"text": "-6.0%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
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"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Louisville City",
"sort_key": 5200.8,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"alert_team": "Hartford Athletic",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.55,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.3,
"market_team": "Louisville City",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Louisville City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1248,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Louisville City at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Louisville City as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Louisville City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0604,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3827,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.55,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"steam_team": "Hartford Athletic",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1248,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Louisville City at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Louisville City as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Louisville City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0604,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3827,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hartford Athletic 1.26 xG vs Louisville City 1.34 \u2192 Louisville City 37.1%",
"Market: Louisville City ~38.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Hartford Athletic \u2193 -13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Louisville City, but sharp money moved toward Hartford Athletic.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.34,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Hartford Athletic",
"market_prob": 36.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.55,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.21,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Louisville City",
"market_prob": 38.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.75,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.75,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.89,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.89,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.08,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Hartford Athletic"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 4.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Louisville City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hartford Athletic 1.26 xG vs Louisville City 1.34 \u2192 Louisville City 37.1%",
"Market: Louisville City ~38.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Hartford Athletic \u2193 -13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Louisville City, but sharp money moved toward Hartford Athletic.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.55,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Hartford Athletic odds shortened \u2193 -13.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Hartford Athletic, with odds shortening by 13.3%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Hartford Athletic \u2014 odds shortened by 13.3%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Hartford Athletic, with odds shortening by 13.3%.",
"Buying interest on Hartford Athletic \u2014 odds shortened by 13.3%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Hartford Athletic has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 13.3%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Hartford Athletic."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.34,
"edge_pp": -3.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hartford Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 36.65,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.55,
"edge_pp": 4.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.08,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.21,
"edge_pp": -1.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Louisville City",
"market_prob_pct": 38.27,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Hartford Athletic \u2014 odds shortened by 13.3%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Louisville City (38.3%).",
"However, Hartford Athletic has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -13.3%, 8/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Louisville City, Market \u2192 Louisville City, Recent sharp money \u2192 Hartford Athletic.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.32,
"closing_odds": 3.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.32,
"entry_odds": 3.8,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 85h 47m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Hartford Athletic (13.3%, 8/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.00",
"2.80",
"2.60"
],
"display": "3.00 \u2192 2.49 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 85h 47m",
"pick_team": "Hartford Athletic",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.49"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Hartford Athletic \u2193 -13.3% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Hartford Athletic",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Hartford Athletic \u2193 -13.3% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Hartford Athletic while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Hartford Athletic",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Hartford Athletic",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_team_name": "Hartford Athletic",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "louisville-city",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Louisville City",
"away_team_id": 4000,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4000.webp",
"away_team_name": "Louisville City",
"away_team_public_id": "2mA5zpl8TUEdH4",
"away_team_slug": "louisville-city",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1493706,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Hartford Athletic",
"home_team_id": 3995,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3995.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hartford Athletic",
"home_team_public_id": "1WGUUpfKkdoIDY",
"home_team_slug": "hartford-athletic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hartford-athletic",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "USL Championship",
"league_id": 255,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/255.webp",
"league_name": "USL Championship",
"league_public_id": "3mwK4u858hcLji",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 23:00:00",
"public_id": "1gWhPmA8UZMNju",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Trinity Health Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4418,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.3827,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3827,
"draw": 0.2508,
"home": 0.3665
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3773
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2797,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": 0.001,
"implied_prob": 0.2508,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3827,
"draw": 0.2508,
"home": 0.3665
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2634
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4277,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.0838,
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3827,
"draw": 0.2508,
"home": 0.3665
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3524
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": -0.0311,
"ev": -0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.8,
"edge": 0.0328,
"ev": 0.1248,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0511,
"ev": -0.133,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1666,
"alpha_yes": 0.229,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0489,
"edge_yes": -0.0489,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0829,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0654,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1016,
"implied_no": 0.4061,
"implied_yes": 0.5939,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1666,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4135
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.229,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.5947,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5833
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4135,
"p_final_yes": 0.5833,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.219,
"alpha_under": 0.1991,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.09,
"edge_over": -0.0775,
"edge_under": 0.0775,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1057,
"ev_under": 0.1241,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.046,
"implied_over": 0.5595,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5588,
"implied_under": 0.4405,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4412,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.219,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.5588,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.542
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1991,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4565
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.542,
"p_final_under": 0.4565,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1248,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1248,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Louisville City at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Louisville City as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Louisville City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Hartford Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Louisville City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0604,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3827,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.3827,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Louisville City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1666,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0083,
"market_prob": 0.4053,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1666,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4135
},
"p_final": 0.4135,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0654,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.229,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.5947,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5833
}
},
"edge": 0.0489,
"ev": 0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.4061,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1991,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.4412,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.219,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.5588,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.542
},
"p_final": 0.4565,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.046,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1991,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4565
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0775,
"ev": 0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.4405,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493706,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1241,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Louisville City",
"home": "Hartford Athletic"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044999,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.4405,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0604,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3827,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493706,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T22:59:12.334717+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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USL Championship — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 52 |
| 1 | Orange County SC | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 6 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 6 | Lexington | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 7 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Rhode Island | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 32 |
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
| 10 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Loudoun United | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 18 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 52 | 31 | +21 | 46 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 26 | 45 | 23 | +22 | 52 |
| 3 | Louisville City | 26 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 37 |
| 4 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 23 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 24 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 32 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 25 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 33 |
| 7 | Miami FC | 26 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 30 |
| 8 | Loudoun United | 25 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 23 |
| 9 | Sporting JAX | 26 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 14 |
| 10 | Detroit City | 25 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 41 |
| 11 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 39 |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 38 |
| 13 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 22 |
| 14 | Orange County SC | 16 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 28 |
| 15 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 19 |
| 16 | Brooklyn | 25 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 18 |
| 17 | Lexington | 15 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 18 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 21 |
| 19 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 20 |
| 20 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 18 |
| 21 | San Antonio FC | 16 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 25 |
| 22 | New Mexico United | 14 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 24 |
| 23 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 22 |
| 24 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 20 |
| 25 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 15 |
