The model missed the final outcome (River Plate win 3–1).
The model had projected Independiente Rivadavia at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Independiente Rivadavia River Plate ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| River Plate | 30.0% | 55.7% | -25.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 32.0% | 27.9% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 38.0% | 16.5% | +21.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates River Plate's win probability at 55.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.0%, a difference of 25.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue River Plate win 3–1.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Independiente Rivadavia by 25.7 percentage points (63.7% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · River Plate 30.0% · Draw 31.9% · Independiente Rivadavia 38.0%
- xG · River Plate 1.05 — Independiente Rivadavia 1.21
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 21:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · River Plate 1.70 · Draw 3.40 · Independiente Rivadavia 5.75
- Implied 1X2 · River Plate 55.7% · Draw 27.9% · Independiente Rivadavia 16.5%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · River Plate 1.70 · Draw 3.40 · Independiente Rivadavia 5.75
- Implied 1X2 · River Plate 55.7% · Draw 27.9% · Independiente Rivadavia 16.5%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result River Plate win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
50/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.7
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
River Plate win · River Plate 3–1 Independiente Rivadavia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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{
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{
"key": "12",
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{
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],
"pick_key": "X2",
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"match_winner": {
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"over_under": {
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
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"has_data": true,
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.0
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{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
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]
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{
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"disagreement_level": "strong",
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},
{
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1216,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.2,
"text": "-12.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0406,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no_prob": 52.6,
"sort_key": 10036.54,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 47.3
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5958,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0069,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.5954,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.607,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4333,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.4046,
"model_prob": 0.393,
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},
"p_final": 0.6023,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.047,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5958,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.5954,
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0372,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.7,
"text": "-3.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0167,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.7,
"text": "-1.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0167,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 39.3,
"sort_key": 1795.825,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 60.7,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"alert_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 25.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -25.66,
"hero_label": "River Plate",
"market_prob_pct": 16.5,
"market_team": "River Plate",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011862999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente Rivadavia at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente Rivadavia as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.75,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17391304347826086,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1862,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+118.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -10.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "5/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.45454545454545453,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (26 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 25.66,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 25.66,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.05,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.21,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.05 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"steam_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011862999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente Rivadavia at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente Rivadavia as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.75,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17391304347826086,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1862,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+118.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -10.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: River Plate 1.05 xG vs Independiente Rivadavia 1.21 \u2192 Independiente Rivadavia 38.0%",
"Market: River Plate ~16.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Independiente Rivadavia odds \u2191 +4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Independiente Rivadavia, but the market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -25.66,
"fair_prob": 30.03,
"label": "River Plate",
"market_prob": 55.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.14,
"fair_prob": 31.99,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.52,
"fair_prob": 37.98,
"label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"market_prob": 16.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.31,
"fair_prob": 39.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.31,
"fair_prob": 60.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.08,
"fair_prob": 47.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.18,
"fair_prob": 52.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -25.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "River Plate",
"market_prob_pct": 55.69,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates River Plate\u0027s win probability at 55.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.0%, a difference of 25.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 25.66,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 16.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+21.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 21.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+21.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 21.5,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: River Plate 1.05 xG vs Independiente Rivadavia 1.21 \u2192 Independiente Rivadavia 38.0%",
"Market: River Plate ~16.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Independiente Rivadavia odds \u2191 +4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Independiente Rivadavia, but the market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -25.66,
"hero_label": "River Plate",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Independiente Rivadavia odds lengthened \u2191 +4.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 25.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.0 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.0,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "River Plate",
"largest_gap_pp": -25.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices River Plate higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 25.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -25.66,
"edge_pp": -25.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "River Plate",
"market_prob_pct": 55.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.14,
"edge_pp": 4.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.99,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 21.52,
"edge_pp": 21.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.98,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"market_prob_pct": 16.46,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers River Plate (16.5%).",
"Independiente Rivadavia odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.5%, 5/11) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Independiente Rivadavia, Market \u2192 River Plate, while Independiente Rivadavia odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.82,
"closing_odds": 1.7,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.82,
"entry_odds": 1.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 141h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Independiente Rivadavia (swing 5.75 \u2192 4.46 \u2192 5.75) \u2014 net 4.5% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.75",
"5.62",
"5.50"
],
"display": "5.75 \u2192 4.46 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 141h 58m",
"pick_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.46"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.5,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"summary": "Market moved away from Independiente Rivadavia while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"pick_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 25.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"away_team_id": 473,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/473.webp",
"away_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"away_team_public_id": "26COo6kYlPVeVq",
"away_team_slug": "independ-rivadavia",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1493117,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "River Plate",
"home_team_id": 435,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/435.webp",
"home_team_name": "River Plate",
"home_team_public_id": "5p3z8r2P7iMf4h",
"home_team_slug": "river-plate",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_id": 128,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/128.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_public_id": "3OCeIb3vl8JGVi",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 22:15:00",
"public_id": "41kr8rxNiinL1p",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Estadio Monumental"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1353,
"best_odd": 5.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0292,
"ev": 0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1646,
"draw": 0.2785,
"home": 0.5569
},
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"p_final": 0.1938
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2815,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.014,
"implied_prob": 0.2785,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1646,
"draw": 0.2785,
"home": 0.5569
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.29
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3691,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0947,
"ev": -0.2143,
"implied_prob": 0.5569,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1646,
"draw": 0.2785,
"home": 0.5569
},
"model_prob": 0.3003,
"p_final": 0.4622
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.75,
"edge": 0.2063,
"ev": 1.1863,
"implied_prob": 0.1739,
"model_prob": 0.3802
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0862,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.2879,
"ev": -0.4895,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.3003
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5671,
"alpha_yes": 0.5164,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0418,
"edge_yes": 0.0408,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1216,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1176,
"ev_yes": 0.0406,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0314,
"implied_no": 0.5678,
"implied_yes": 0.4322,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5671,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5447
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5164,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0314,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.473,
"p_final": 0.4526
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.5447,
"p_final_yes": 0.4526,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4333,
"alpha_under": 0.5958,
"best_over_odd": 2.45,
"best_under_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.31,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.57,
"edge_over": -0.0131,
"edge_under": 0.0131,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0372,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0769,
"ev_under": -0.0167,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0544,
"implied_over": 0.4061,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4046,
"implied_under": 0.5939,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5954,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4333,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.4046,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.3996
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5958,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.5954,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.6023
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3996,
"p_final_under": 0.6023,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.26,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.1863,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1145,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011862999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente Rivadavia at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente Rivadavia as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.75,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17391304347826086,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1862,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+118.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -10.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.473,
"draw_prob": 0.3195,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3802,
"over_prob": 0.393,
"total_xg": 2.26,
"under_prob": 0.607,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.75,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0292,
"ev": 0.1145,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Independiente Rivadavia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5164,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0218,
"market_prob": 0.4309,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.473,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5671,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5447
},
"p_final": 0.4526,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0314,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5164,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0314,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.473,
"p_final": 0.4526
}
},
"edge": 0.0408,
"ev": 0.0406,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4322,
"model_prob": 0.473,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5958,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0069,
"market_prob": 0.5954,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.607,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4333,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.4046,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.3996
},
"p_final": 0.6023,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5958,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.5954,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.6023
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0167,
"implied_prob": 0.5939,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493117,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1145,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3802,
"draw": 0.3195,
"home": 0.3003
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"home": "River Plate"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.047886,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.75,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17391304347826086,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1862,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+118.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493117,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T22:14:06.483337+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Profesional Argentina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 2 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Talleres | 16 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Instituto | 16 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto | 16 | 14.2 | 5.0 | +9.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 19 |
| 3 | Lanús | 16 | 12.8 | 9.6 | +3.2 | 24 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9.2 | 6.0 | +3.2 | 30 |
| 5 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 9.1 | 6.2 | +2.9 | 21 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 9.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 12.1 | 9.8 | +2.3 | 31 |
| 8 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 8.7 | 8.6 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente | 16 | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 | 24 |
| 10 | Talleres | 16 | 10.4 | 13.0 | -2.6 | 26 |
| 11 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5.1 | 8.3 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 12 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 9.4 | 13.1 | -3.7 | 16 |
| 13 | Platense | 16 | 6.3 | 10.2 | -3.9 | 16 |
| 14 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 4.8 | 8.7 | -3.9 | 22 |
| 15 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 6.1 | 10.1 | -4.0 | 28 |
