The model missed the final outcome (Argentinos Juniors win 2–3).
The model had projected Sarmiento de Junín at 50.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Sarmiento de Junín Argentinos Juniors ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento de Junín | 50.9% | 21.2% | +29.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 27.1% | 32.8% | -5.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Argentinos Juniors | 22.0% | 46.0% | -24.0 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Sarmiento de Junín's win probability at 50.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.2%, a difference of 29.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Argentinos Juniors win 2–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.74) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Sarmiento de Junín; match finished Argentinos Juniors
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Sarmiento de Junín by 29.7 percentage points (21.2% vs model 50.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Jul 23, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sarmiento de Junín 50.8% · Draw 27.1% · Argentinos Juniors 22.1%
- xG · Sarmiento de Junín 1.69 — Argentinos Juniors 1.05
-
Jul 23, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sarmiento de Junín 4.57 · Draw 2.95 · Argentinos Juniors 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · Sarmiento de Junín 21.2% · Draw 32.8% · Argentinos Juniors 46.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 23, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sarmiento de Junín 4.57 · Draw 2.95 · Argentinos Juniors 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · Sarmiento de Junín 21.2% · Draw 32.8% · Argentinos Juniors 46.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 23, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Argentinos Juniors win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
48/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (30 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.57
AI Fair Odds
1.97
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Argentinos Juniors win · Sarmiento de Junín 2–3 Argentinos Juniors
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 50.8%
- Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"alert_breadth_note": "10/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.1%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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{
"key": "steam",
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{
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},
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"probability_gap_pp": 29.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the model still strongly favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn."
},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.1176,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013224,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
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"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn at 50.8% vs market 21.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn as the stronger side (50.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
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],
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"headline": "Wait",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the model still strongly favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the model still strongly favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1176,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 4.57,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2116,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5082,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2188183807439825,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3225,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+132.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 25.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "10/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7692307692307693,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (30 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 10.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 49,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 29.7,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 29.7,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.05,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 25.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.69,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.69,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.69 \u00b7 Away xG 1.05 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +25%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"steam_team": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the model still strongly favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the model still strongly favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the model still strongly favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1176,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013224,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn at 50.8% vs market 21.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn as the stronger side (50.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the model still strongly favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the model still strongly favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1176,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 4.57,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2116,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5082,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2188183807439825,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3225,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+132.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 25.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Wait",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn 1.69 xG vs Argentinos Juniors 1.05 \u2192 Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn 50.9%",
"Market: Argentinos Juniors ~21.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn odds \u2191 +7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 29.7,
"fair_prob": 50.86,
"label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"market_prob": 21.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.68,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -24.01,
"fair_prob": 22.04,
"label": "Argentinos Juniors",
"market_prob": 46.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 29.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.86,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"market_prob_pct": 21.16,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn\u0027s win probability at 50.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.2%, a difference of 29.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 29.7,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 21.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+29.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 29.7,
"model_prob_pct": 50.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+29.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 49,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the model still strongly favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn 1.69 xG vs Argentinos Juniors 1.05 \u2192 Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn 50.9%",
"Market: Argentinos Juniors ~21.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn odds \u2191 +7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 29.7,
"hero_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn odds lengthened \u2191 +7.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 29.7,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 23.8 pp (at 50.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 23.8,
"max_prob_pct": 50.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"largest_gap_pp": 29.7,
"lead": "The model rates Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 29.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 29.7,
"edge_pp": 29.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.86,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"market_prob_pct": 21.16,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.68,
"edge_pp": -5.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.1,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.78,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -24.01,
"edge_pp": -24.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.04,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Argentinos Juniors",
"market_prob_pct": 46.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Argentinos Juniors (21.2%).",
"However, Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +7.1%, 10/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, Market \u2192 Argentinos Juniors, while Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 21.88,
"closing_odds": 4.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 21.88,
"entry_odds": 4.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "10/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h 24m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn (7.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.57",
"4.38",
"4.20"
],
"display": "4.77 \u2192 3.63 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h 24m",
"pick_team": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.77"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.63"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.2,
4.57,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.57"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 10/13 sportsbooks on Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/13",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 29.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Argentinos Juniors",
"away_team_id": 458,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/458.webp",
"away_team_name": "Argentinos Juniors",
"away_team_slug": "argentinos-jrs",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1493015,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"home_team_id": 474,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/474.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"home_team_slug": "sarmiento-junin",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional de F\u00fatbol",
"league_id": 128,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/128.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional de F\u00fatbol",
"league_name_canonical": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-23 22:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Junin",
"venue_name": "Estadio Eva Peron"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.288,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0691,
"ev": -0.178,
"implied_prob": 0.4605,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4605,
"draw": 0.3278,
"home": 0.2116
},
"model_prob": 0.2205,
"p_final": 0.3914
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4118,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0233,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.3278,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4605,
"draw": 0.3278,
"home": 0.2116
},
"model_prob": 0.2713,
"p_final": 0.3046
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.111,
"best_odd": 4.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": 0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.2116,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4605,
"draw": 0.3278,
"home": 0.2116
},
"model_prob": 0.5082,
"p_final": 0.2446
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.2557,
"ev": -0.5369,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.2205
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.95,
"edge": -0.0677,
"ev": -0.1996,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"model_prob": 0.2713
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.57,
"edge": 0.2894,
"ev": 1.3224,
"implied_prob": 0.2188,
"model_prob": 0.5082
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.74,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1176,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.3224,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1176,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the model still strongly favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1176,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013224,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn at 50.8% vs market 21.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn as the stronger side (50.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the model still strongly favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, but the model still strongly favours Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1176,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 4.57,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2116,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5082,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2188183807439825,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3225,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+132.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 25.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2713,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5082,
"over_prob": 0.516,
"total_xg": 2.74,
"under_prob": 0.484,
"xg_diff": 0.64
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.57,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": 0.1176,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2116,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5082,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1493015,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1176,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2205,
"draw": 0.2713,
"home": 0.5082
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Argentinos Juniors",
"home": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.059764,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.2116,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5082,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1176,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 4.57,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2116,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5082,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2188183807439825,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3225,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+132.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493015,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-23T22:29:25.060941+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Profesional Argentina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 2 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Talleres | 16 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Instituto | 16 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto | 16 | 14.2 | 5.0 | +9.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 19 |
| 3 | Lanús | 16 | 12.8 | 9.6 | +3.2 | 24 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9.2 | 6.0 | +3.2 | 30 |
| 5 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 9.1 | 6.2 | +2.9 | 21 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 9.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 12.1 | 9.8 | +2.3 | 31 |
| 8 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 8.7 | 8.6 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente | 16 | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 | 24 |
| 10 | Talleres | 16 | 10.4 | 13.0 | -2.6 | 26 |
| 11 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5.1 | 8.3 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 12 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 9.4 | 13.1 | -3.7 | 16 |
| 13 | Platense | 16 | 6.3 | 10.2 | -3.9 | 16 |
| 14 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 4.8 | 8.7 | -3.9 | 22 |
| 15 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 6.1 | 10.1 | -4.0 | 28 |
