AI correctly predicted the Bahia win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Bahia Bahia ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino | 29.0% | 46.9% | -17.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 26.6% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Bahia | 41.8% | 26.5% | +15.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates RB Bragantino's win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.0%, a difference of 17.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Bahia win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about RB Bragantino than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Bahia attacking xG significantly stronger (1.52 vs 0.97)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bahia higher (59.7% vs model 41.8%, 17.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bahia win 2–3).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 19:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · RB Bragantino 29.0% · Draw 29.3% · Bahia 41.7%
- xG · RB Bragantino 0.97 — Bahia 1.52
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · RB Bragantino 2.06 · Draw 3.64 · Bahia 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · RB Bragantino 46.9% · Draw 26.6% · Bahia 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · RB Bragantino 2.06 · Draw 3.64 · Bahia 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · RB Bragantino 46.9% · Draw 26.6% · Bahia 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bahia win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
3/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.06
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Bahia win · RB Bragantino 2–3 Bahia
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b13a598d554993067e1e30e55873cf49f7d6e57fa1fc0390138ca7946c4ba1a3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.4175,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2925,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.29,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.52,
"away_win_prob": 0.4175,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.4175,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.499,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.501,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2925,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2925,
"fair_odds_away": 2.4,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.4,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.42,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.42,
"fair_odds_home": 3.45,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.45,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.97,
"home_win_prob": 0.29,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.29,
"over_25_prob": 0.454,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.546
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Bahia and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Bahia"
},
"away_xg": 1.52,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bahia",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1522,
"edge_gap": 0.1244,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2649,
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.7,
"draw": 29.3,
"home": 29.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.65
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.65,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Bahia Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.77,
"market_odds": 3.65,
"model_odds": 2.4,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 14.3,
"value_pct": 52.1,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 78.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 62.1,
"no_prob": 49.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 50.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 50.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.52,
"home_expected": 0.97,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "RB Bragantino or Draw",
"prob": 58.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "RB Bragantino or Bahia",
"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Bahia",
"prob": 71.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Bahia",
"pick_prob": 71.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.8,
"draw_pct": 29.2,
"home_pct": 29.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Bahia"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.49,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 45.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 54.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.49,
"under_prob": 54.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 52.6,
"implied_prob": 27.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Bahia Win",
"model_prob": 41.8,
"odds": 3.65
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Bahia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.49,
"draw": 26.57,
"home": 46.94
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-05 18:59:09",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-05 18:29:57",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "RB Bragantino",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.94,
"gap_pp": -17.92,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 29.02
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.57,
"gap_pp": 2.71,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.27
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.49,
"gap_pp": 15.22,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 41.71
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.38,
"gap_pp": -8.98,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 45.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.62,
"gap_pp": 8.98,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 54.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.06,
"early": 2.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.94,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.64,
"early": 3.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.57,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.65,
"early": 3.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.49,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.49,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.77,
"early": 1.77,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.38,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.11,
"early": 2.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.62,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 4.3,
"ev": 0.512,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 12.0,
"market_prob": 0.0833,
"market_prob_pct": 8.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.97,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"best_odds": 3.7,
"confidence": "no_clear_edge",
"display_label": "Away Bahia",
"edge": 14.7,
"ev": 79.6,
"probability": 41.7
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"consensus_odds": 3.65,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0956,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.6,
"text": "+9.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0956,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.6,
"text": "+9.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5224,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Bahia",
"sort_key": 10236.04,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 45.4,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 54.6,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 49.9,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 50.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"alert_team": "Bahia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.94,
"hero_label": "RB Bragantino",
"market_prob_pct": 26.5,
"market_team": "RB Bragantino",
"model_prob_pct": 41.8,
"model_team": "Bahia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5225,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bahia at 41.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bahia as the value side (41.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bahia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Bahia \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.65 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +52% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492361 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.65 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +52% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.65,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.273972602739726,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5224,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.55"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.55
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.94,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.94,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.52,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.97,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.52,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.97 \u00b7 Away xG 1.52 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"steam_team": "Bahia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5225,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bahia at 41.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bahia as the value side (41.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bahia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Bahia \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.65 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +52% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492361 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.65 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +52% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.65,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.273972602739726,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5224,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.55"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.55
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: RB Bragantino 0.97 xG vs Bahia 1.52 \u2192 Bahia 41.8%",
"Market: RB Bragantino ~26.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Bahia odds \u2191 +12.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bahia, but the market has moved away from Bahia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -17.94,
"fair_prob": 29.0,
"label": "RB Bragantino",
"market_prob": 46.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.68,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.26,
"fair_prob": 41.75,
"label": "Bahia",
"market_prob": 26.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 50.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 49.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -17.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.0,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "RB Bragantino",
"market_prob_pct": 46.94,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Bahia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates RB Bragantino\u0027s win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.0%, a difference of 17.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 17.94,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bahia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 15.3,
"model_prob_pct": 41.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 15.3,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: RB Bragantino 0.97 xG vs Bahia 1.52 \u2192 Bahia 41.8%",
"Market: RB Bragantino ~26.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Bahia odds \u2191 +12.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bahia, but the market has moved away from Bahia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.94,
"hero_label": "RB Bragantino",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Bahia odds lengthened \u2191 +12.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Bahia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about RB Bragantino than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Bahia \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about RB Bragantino than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Bahia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Bahia \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors RB Bragantino more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Bahia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/12) supports the current market view on Bahia."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.94,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.5 pp (at 41.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.5,
"max_prob_pct": 41.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "RB Bragantino",
"largest_gap_pp": -17.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices RB Bragantino higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -17.94,
"edge_pp": -17.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.0,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "RB Bragantino",
"market_prob_pct": 46.94,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.68,
"edge_pp": 2.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.57,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 15.26,
"edge_pp": 15.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.75,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bahia",
"market_prob_pct": 26.49,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Bahia \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers RB Bragantino (26.5%).",
"Bahia odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +12.1%, 9/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bahia, Market \u2192 RB Bragantino, while Bahia odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.54,
"closing_odds": 2.06,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.54,
"entry_odds": 2.06,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "HT",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 HT",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "9/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 180h 49m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Bahia (12.1%, 9/12) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.50",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.70 \u2192 3.08 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 180h 49m",
"pick_team": "Bahia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.08"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
3.65,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,2.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Bahia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Market moved away from Bahia while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Bahia",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/12",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Bahia",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_team_name": "Bahia",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 2,
"away_team_display_name": "Bahia",
"away_team_id": 118,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/118.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bahia",
"away_team_public_id": "1QMvPlZYgYKxNv",
"away_team_slug": "bahia",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1492361,
"goals_away": 2,
"goals_home": 2,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 2,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "RB Bragantino",
"home_team_id": 794,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/794.webp",
"home_team_name": "RB Bragantino",
"home_team_public_id": "08KQ5khCCE0NVe",
"home_team_slug": "rb-bragantino",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie A de Brasil",
"league_id": 71,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/71.webp",
"league_name": "Serie A de Brasil",
"league_public_id": "0wg055kq66Q9K5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-05 19:00:00",
"public_id": "4kTMC3mjTnXl3U",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Halftime",
"status_short": "HT",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2315,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0352,
"ev": 0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2649,
"draw": 0.2657,
"home": 0.4694
},
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"p_final": 0.3002
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2878,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0047,
"implied_prob": 0.2657,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2649,
"draw": 0.2657,
"home": 0.4694
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.2734
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.329,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.059,
"ev": -0.1545,
"implied_prob": 0.4694,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2649,
"draw": 0.2657,
"home": 0.4694
},
"model_prob": 0.2902,
"p_final": 0.4104
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.1431,
"ev": 0.5225,
"implied_prob": 0.274,
"model_prob": 0.4171
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": 0.0655,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.2927
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": -0.1953,
"ev": -0.4023,
"implied_prob": 0.4854,
"model_prob": 0.2902
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.49,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5225,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0956,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5225,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bahia at 41.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bahia as the value side (41.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bahia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Bahia \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.65 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +52% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492361 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.65 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +52% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.65,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.273972602739726,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5224,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.55"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.55
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.501,
"draw_prob": 0.2927,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4171,
"over_prob": 0.454,
"total_xg": 2.49,
"under_prob": 0.546,
"xg_diff": 0.55
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.65,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0352,
"ev": 0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Bahia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.501,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.546,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492361,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0956,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4171,
"draw": 0.2927,
"home": 0.2902
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bahia",
"home": "RB Bragantino"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.043862,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Bahia",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.65,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.273972602739726,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5224,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492361,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-05T19:57:11.909187+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para RB Bragantino & Bahia!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Serie A de Brasil — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 56 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 45 |
| 5 | Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 43 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | Atlético Mineiro | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 39 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 36 |
| 10 | Santos | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 12 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 33 |
| 13 | Corinthians | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 14 | Botafogo | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 29 |
| 16 | Grêmio | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 17 |
| 20 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 26 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 54 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 27 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 56 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 27 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 27 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 45 |
| 5 | Bahia | 26 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 43 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Santos | 26 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 35 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 26 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 32 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 27 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Atlético Mineiro | 26 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 39 |
| 11 | RB Bragantino | 26 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 36 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 26 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 33 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 27 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Internacional | 27 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 28 |
| 15 | Remo | 26 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 28 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 26 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 28 |
| 18 | Chapecoense | 26 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 17 |
| 19 | Corinthians | 26 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
| 20 | Vitória | 27 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 33 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 26 | 12.2 | 6.9 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 2 | Santos | 26 | 9.9 | 6.6 | +3.3 | 35 |
| 3 | Flamengo | 26 | 9.0 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 54 |
| 4 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 9.2 | 6.1 | +3.1 | 28 |
| 5 | Atlético Mineiro | 26 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 39 |
| 6 | Corinthians | 26 | 7.2 | 4.7 | +2.5 | 32 |
| 7 | Athletico Paranaense | 27 | 10.2 | 8.1 | +2.1 | 46 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 27 | 8.7 | 6.8 | +1.9 | 45 |
| 9 | Palmeiras | 27 | 8.2 | 6.5 | +1.7 | 56 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 26 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 33 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 26 | 10.1 | 10.3 | -0.2 | 32 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 26 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 36 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 9.3 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 42 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 27 | 7.1 | 9.0 | -1.9 | 29 |
| 15 | Remo | 26 | 5.6 | 7.7 | -2.1 | 23 |
| 16 | Coritiba | 27 | 4.9 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 38 |
| 17 | Chapecoense | 26 | 7.3 | 9.9 | -2.6 | 17 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 8.8 | 11.5 | -2.7 | 28 |
| 19 | Vitória | 27 | 6.6 | 11.7 | -5.1 | 33 |
| 20 | Grêmio | 26 | 4.7 | 12.6 | -7.9 | 28 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | — | — | — | 10 |
