The model missed the final outcome (São Paulo win 2–1).
The model had projected RB Bragantino at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 RB Bragantino São Paulo ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo | 25.1% | 43.6% | -18.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 34.0% | 29.3% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| RB Bragantino | 40.9% | 27.1% | +13.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates São Paulo's win probability at 43.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.1%, a difference of 18.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue São Paulo win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about São Paulo than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on RB Bragantino by 18.5 percentage points (59.4% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · São Paulo 25.1% · Draw 34.0% · RB Bragantino 40.8%
- xG · São Paulo 0.84 — RB Bragantino 1.14
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · São Paulo 2.22 · Draw 3.30 · RB Bragantino 3.58
- Implied 1X2 · São Paulo 43.6% · Draw 29.3% · RB Bragantino 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · São Paulo 2.22 · Draw 3.30 · RB Bragantino 3.58
- Implied 1X2 · São Paulo 43.6% · Draw 29.3% · RB Bragantino 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result São Paulo win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
2/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.22
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
São Paulo win · São Paulo 2–1 RB Bragantino
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"pick_key": "X2",
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"over_under": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -18.46,
"hero_label": "S\u00e3o Paulo",
"market_prob_pct": 27.1,
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"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "RB Bragantino",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.5,
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},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (RB Bragantino), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0857,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RB Bragantino at 40.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RB Bragantino as the value side (40.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RB Bragantino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side RB Bragantino \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.58 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492358 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.58 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (RB Bragantino), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0857,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.58,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2705,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4083,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27932960893854747,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4617,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -15.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "2/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.46,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.46,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.14,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.84,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.14,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.84 \u00b7 Away xG 1.14 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (RB Bragantino), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (RB Bragantino), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0857,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RB Bragantino at 40.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RB Bragantino as the value side (40.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RB Bragantino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side RB Bragantino \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.58 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492358 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.58 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (RB Bragantino), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0857,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.58,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2705,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4083,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27932960893854747,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4617,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -15.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: S\u00e3o Paulo 0.84 xG vs RB Bragantino 1.14 \u2192 RB Bragantino 40.9%",
"Market: S\u00e3o Paulo ~27.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +6.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans RB Bragantino, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -18.46,
"fair_prob": 25.15,
"label": "S\u00e3o Paulo",
"market_prob": 43.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.65,
"fair_prob": 33.99,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.81,
"fair_prob": 40.86,
"label": "RB Bragantino",
"market_prob": 27.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 31.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 68.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 40.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 59.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -18.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.15,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "S\u00e3o Paulo",
"market_prob_pct": 43.61,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates S\u00e3o Paulo\u0027s win probability at 43.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 25.1%, a difference of 18.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 18.46,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "RB Bragantino",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 27.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.8,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "RB Bragantino \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: S\u00e3o Paulo 0.84 xG vs RB Bragantino 1.14 \u2192 RB Bragantino 40.9%",
"Market: S\u00e3o Paulo ~27.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +6.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans RB Bragantino, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -18.46,
"hero_label": "S\u00e3o Paulo",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +6.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about S\u00e3o Paulo than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about S\u00e3o Paulo than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors S\u00e3o Paulo more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/14), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.46,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.9 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.9,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "S\u00e3o Paulo",
"largest_gap_pp": -18.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices S\u00e3o Paulo higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -18.46,
"edge_pp": -18.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.15,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "S\u00e3o Paulo",
"market_prob_pct": 43.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.65,
"edge_pp": 4.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.99,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.81,
"edge_pp": 13.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.86,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "RB Bragantino",
"market_prob_pct": 27.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers S\u00e3o Paulo (27.1%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.2%, 2/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 RB Bragantino, Market \u2192 S\u00e3o Paulo, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.05,
"closing_odds": 2.22,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.05,
"entry_odds": 2.22,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "2/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 157h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.40 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.40) \u2014 net 6.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.30",
"3.20"
],
"display": "3.40 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 157h 57m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.3,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,9.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/14",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "RB Bragantino",
"away_team_id": 794,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/794.webp",
"away_team_name": "RB Bragantino",
"away_team_public_id": "08KQ5khCCE0NVe",
"away_team_slug": "rb-bragantino",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1492358,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "S\u00e3o Paulo",
"home_team_id": 126,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/126.webp",
"home_team_name": "S\u00e3o Paulo",
"home_team_public_id": "1qQdAJTY24R91v",
"home_team_slug": "sao-paulo",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie A de Brasil",
"league_id": 71,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/71.webp",
"league_name": "Serie A de Brasil",
"league_public_id": "0wg055kq66Q9K5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-29 23:00:00",
"public_id": "140EsYXo5fBScM",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "S\u00e3o Paulo",
"venue_name": "Estadio Do MorumBIS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.238,
"best_odd": 3.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0328,
"ev": 0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.2705,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2705,
"draw": 0.2934,
"home": 0.4361
},
"model_prob": 0.4083,
"p_final": 0.3033
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2789,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": 0.0114,
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2705,
"draw": 0.2934,
"home": 0.4361
},
"model_prob": 0.3403,
"p_final": 0.3065
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3253,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0601,
"ev": -0.1652,
"implied_prob": 0.4361,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2705,
"draw": 0.2934,
"home": 0.4361
},
"model_prob": 0.2514,
"p_final": 0.376
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.58,
"edge": 0.129,
"ev": 0.4619,
"implied_prob": 0.2793,
"model_prob": 0.4083
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": 0.0373,
"ev": 0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.3403
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.1991,
"ev": -0.442,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.2514
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.98,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0857,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4619,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0857,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (RB Bragantino), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0857,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RB Bragantino at 40.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RB Bragantino as the value side (40.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RB Bragantino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side RB Bragantino \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.58 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492358 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.58 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (RB Bragantino), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0857,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.58,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2705,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4083,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27932960893854747,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4617,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -15.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.404,
"draw_prob": 0.3403,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4083,
"over_prob": 0.318,
"total_xg": 1.98,
"under_prob": 0.682,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.58,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0328,
"ev": 0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.2705,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4083,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "RB Bragantino"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.596,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.682,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492358,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0857,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4083,
"draw": 0.3403,
"home": 0.2514
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "RB Bragantino",
"home": "S\u00e3o Paulo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.026243,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.2705,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4083,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "RB Bragantino",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0857,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.58,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2705,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4083,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27932960893854747,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4617,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492358,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-29T22:59:09.391405+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie A de Brasil — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 57 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 48 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 7 | Atlético Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 28 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Santos | 27 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 38 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 28 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Atlético Mineiro | 27 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 40 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 36 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 28 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 27 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 36 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 28 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 28 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 |
| 19 | Chapecoense | 27 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
| 20 | Vitória | 28 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 28 | 12.2 | 6.9 | +5.3 | 46 |
| 2 | Santos | 27 | 9.9 | 6.6 | +3.3 | 38 |
| 3 | Flamengo | 28 | 9.0 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 60 |
| 4 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 9.2 | 6.1 | +3.1 | 31 |
| 5 | Atlético Mineiro | 27 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 40 |
| 6 | Corinthians | 28 | 7.2 | 4.7 | +2.5 | 32 |
| 7 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 10.2 | 8.1 | +2.1 | 49 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 28 | 8.7 | 6.8 | +1.9 | 48 |
| 9 | Palmeiras | 28 | 8.2 | 6.5 | +1.7 | 57 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 28 | 11.0 | 10.9 | +0.1 | 35 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 36 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 36 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 9.3 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 45 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 28 | 7.1 | 9.0 | -1.9 | 32 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 5.6 | 7.7 | -2.1 | 23 |
| 16 | Coritiba | 28 | 4.9 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 38 |
| 17 | Chapecoense | 27 | 7.3 | 9.9 | -2.6 | 18 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 8.8 | 11.5 | -2.7 | 28 |
| 19 | Vitória | 28 | 6.6 | 11.7 | -5.1 | 33 |
| 20 | Grêmio | 28 | 5.3 | 13.5 | -8.2 | 29 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | — | — | — | 10 |
