The model missed the final outcome (FC Vaduz win 1–3).
The model had projected FC Wil 1900 at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 FC Wil 1900 FC Vaduz ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was FC Vaduz win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
May 15, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · FC Wil 1900 1.45 — FC Vaduz 1.25
-
May 15, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result FC Vaduz win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
FC Vaduz win · FC Wil 1900 1–3 FC Vaduz
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
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"main_pick_meta": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
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{
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{
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"home_team": "FC Wil 1900",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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},
{
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{
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{
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"home_xg": 1.45,
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"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ch.svg",
"country_name": "Switzerland",
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"league_name": "Challenge League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-15 16:00:00",
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"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
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"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
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],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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},
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"game_typing_module": true,
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},
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],
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],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
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"grade": "A",
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},
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"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.554,
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"under_prob": 0.446,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0277,
"ev": 0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.2212,
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"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "FC Wil 1900"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": 0.02,
"implied_prob": 0.4003,
"model_prob": 0.425,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0471,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
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"match_regime": {
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"code": "thin_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
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"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Vaduz",
"home": "FC Wil 1900"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031398,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0704,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1491448,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-15T15:59:09.294747+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Challenge League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Vaduz | 36 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 81 |
| 2 | FC Aarau | 36 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 80 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 67 |
| 4 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 36 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 50 |
| 5 | Neuchâtel Xamax | 36 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 49 |
| 6 | Rapperswil | 36 | 14 | 2 | 20 | 44 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Wil 1900 | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 40 |
| 9 | Stade Nyonnais | 36 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 28 |
| 10 | Bellinzona | 36 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Aarau | 36 | 77 | 47 | +30 | 80 |
| 2 | FC Vaduz | 36 | 75 | 41 | +34 | 81 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 36 | 75 | 48 | +27 | 67 |
| 4 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 36 | 59 | 51 | +8 | 50 |
| 5 | Neuchâtel Xamax | 36 | 55 | 56 | -1 | 49 |
| 6 | Rapperswil | 36 | 52 | 62 | -10 | 44 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 36 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 40 |
| 8 | Bellinzona | 36 | 40 | 77 | -37 | 23 |
| 9 | FC Wil 1900 | 36 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 40 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 36 | 33 | 60 | -27 | 28 |
