Auditoría de predicción: Bellinzona vs FC Wil 1900 Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Bellinzona

May 11, 2026 - 18:15

2 1.45

4 1.25

xG Accuracy: 40%

FC Wil 1900

The model missed the final outcome (FC Wil 1900 win 2–4).

The model had projected Bellinzona at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Grado de predicción F

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
1X2 Bellinzona FC Wil 1900 ✖ Incorrecto
Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 2-4 ✖ Incorrecto

Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre

Resultado	Modelo	Mercado de cierre	Diferencia	Señal
Bellinzona	41.8%	28.4%	+13.4 pp	Model Edge
Draw	25.7%	26.9%	-1.2 pp	Aligned
FC Wil 1900	32.6%	44.7%	-12.2 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Bellinzona's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.4%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue FC Wil 1900 win 2–4.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Bellinzona.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bellinzona by 13.4 percentage points (28.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Cronología de predicción

Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.

May 11, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bellinzona 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · FC Wil 1900 32.6%
- xG · Bellinzona 1.45 — FC Wil 1900 1.25
May 11, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bellinzona 3.36 · Draw 3.54 · FC Wil 1900 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Bellinzona 28.4% · Draw 26.9% · FC Wil 1900 44.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 11, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bellinzona 3.36 · Draw 3.54 · FC Wil 1900 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Bellinzona 28.4% · Draw 26.9% · FC Wil 1900 44.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 11, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result FC Wil 1900 win · 2–4
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Instantánea histórica

Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.

Veredicto histórico: Monitor

Decisión histórica Monitor

Resultado Missed

Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)

Fiabilidad de predicción 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (13 pp)

Evidencia ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 21:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1765480

Closing Odds 3.36

AI Fair Odds 2.39

CLV Pending

Final Result FC Wil 1900 win · Bellinzona 2–4 FC Wil 1900

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

Expected: 41.8%
Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Revisar preguntas frecuentes

¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?: Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
¿Qué mide la precisión xG?: xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?: Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?: Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.

Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON

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      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ch.svg",
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        },
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      },
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      },
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        "away": 0.3257,
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      },
      "reason_codes": [
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      "secondary_pick": null,
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        "away": "FC Wil 1900",
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      },
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-11T15:59:07.170889+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Challenge League — Clasificación

#	EQUIPO	PJ	G	E	P	Pts
1	FC Vaduz	36	25	6	5	81
2	FC Aarau	36	25	5	6	80
3	Yverdon Sport	36	20	7	9	67
4	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	36	14	8	14	50
5	Neuchâtel Xamax	36	14	7	15	49
6	Rapperswil	36	14	2	20	44
7	Étoile Carouge	36	10	10	16	40
8	FC Wil 1900	36	10	10	16	40
9	Stade Nyonnais	36	5	13	18	28
10	Bellinzona	36	5	8	23	23

#	EQUIPO	PJ	GF	GC	+/-	Pts
1	FC Aarau	36	77	47	+30	80
2	FC Vaduz	36	75	41	+34	81
3	Yverdon Sport	36	75	48	+27	67
4	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	36	59	51	+8	50
5	Neuchâtel Xamax	36	55	56	-1	49
6	Rapperswil	36	52	62	-10	44
7	Étoile Carouge	36	46	54	-8	40
8	Bellinzona	36	40	77	-37	23
9	FC Wil 1900	36	39	55	-16	40
10	Stade Nyonnais	36	33	60	-27	28