The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected San Jose Earthquakes at 37.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 San Jose Earthquakes Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.11) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 20:09 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · San Jose Earthquakes 1.57 — Los Angeles FC 1.54
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · San Jose Earthquakes 2–2 Los Angeles FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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"market_comparison": [
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{
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"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
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{
"affi_link": "",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
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{
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},
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{
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{
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{
"away": 0,
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},
{
"away": 1,
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}
],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 73.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "San Jose Earthquakes"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.11,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "medium",
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"over_prob": 60.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 60.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.11,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 11.9,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"top5": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_over_display": {
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},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 60.1,
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"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 39.9,
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes).",
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0086,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.9,
"text": "-0.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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},
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{
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0172,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "-1.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0778,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "-7.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 36.4,
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{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "San Jose Earthquakes",
"model_prob_pct": 37.3,
"model_team": "San Jose Earthquakes",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0653,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1193,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 63,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Jose Earthquakes at 37.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Jose Earthquakes as the value side (37.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Jose Earthquakes",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side San Jose Earthquakes \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490482 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes).",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0086,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3731,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3460207612456747,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0783,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.54,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.57,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.57,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.57 \u00b7 Away xG 1.54 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0653,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1193,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 63,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Jose Earthquakes at 37.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Jose Earthquakes as the value side (37.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Jose Earthquakes",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side San Jose Earthquakes \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490482 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes).",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0086,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3731,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3460207612456747,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0783,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Jose Earthquakes 1.57 xG vs Los Angeles FC 1.54 \u2192 San Jose Earthquakes 37.3%",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean San Jose Earthquakes with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 37.34,
"label": "San Jose Earthquakes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.05,
"label": "Los Angeles FC",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.62,
"fair_prob": 60.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.62,
"fair_prob": 39.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.39,
"fair_prob": 63.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.39,
"fair_prob": 36.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Jose Earthquakes",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "San Jose Earthquakes \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Jose Earthquakes 1.57 xG vs Los Angeles FC 1.54 \u2192 San Jose Earthquakes 37.3%",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean San Jose Earthquakes with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +2.7%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.3 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.3,
"max_prob_pct": 37.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.34,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Jose Earthquakes",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.05,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Los Angeles FC",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans San Jose Earthquakes (37.3%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.7%, 4/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"San Jose Earthquakes \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.32,
"entry_odds": 3.8,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 140h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 4.08 \u2192 3.22 \u2192 3.80) \u2014 net 2.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.80",
"3.75",
"3.70"
],
"display": "4.08 \u2192 3.22 \u2192 3.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 140h",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.08"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.22"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
3.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "los-angeles-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Los Angeles FC",
"away_team_id": 1616,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1616.webp",
"away_team_name": "Los Angeles FC",
"away_team_public_id": "1oLkCyd8SGU5fV",
"away_team_slug": "los-angeles-fc",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490482,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "San Jose Earthquakes",
"home_team_id": 1596,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1596.webp",
"home_team_name": "San Jose Earthquakes",
"home_team_public_id": "5MJxiPWZbI72fZ",
"home_team_slug": "san-jose-earthquakes",
"ht.home_team_slug": "san-jose-earthquakes",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_public_id": "2mZNhylXlUFt9l",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 23:30:00",
"public_id": "50y4H2XNcT5uRb",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "San Francisco Bay Area",
"venue_name": "PayPal Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4031,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.028,
"ev": -0.1308,
"implied_prob": 0.4304,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4304,
"draw": 0.2479,
"home": 0.3217
},
"model_prob": 0.361,
"p_final": 0.4024
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2919,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0053,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.2479,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4304,
"draw": 0.2479,
"home": 0.3217
},
"model_prob": 0.2659,
"p_final": 0.2532
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4153,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0086,
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4304,
"draw": 0.2479,
"home": 0.3217
},
"model_prob": 0.3731,
"p_final": 0.343
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.0855,
"ev": -0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4464,
"model_prob": 0.361
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.08,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": 0.085,
"implied_prob": 0.2451,
"model_prob": 0.2659
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0398,
"ev": 0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.3731
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.413,
"alpha_yes": 0.5679,
"best_no_odd": 2.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0139,
"edge_yes": -0.0139,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0172,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0562,
"ev_yes": -0.0778,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0773,
"implied_no": 0.3501,
"implied_yes": 0.6499,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.413,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0562,
"implied_prob": 0.3529,
"model_prob": 0.364,
"p_final": 0.3575
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5679,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.0773,
"implied_prob": 0.6471,
"model_prob": 0.636,
"p_final": 0.6408
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3575,
"p_final_yes": 0.6408,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5447,
"alpha_under": 0.3962,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.6,
"edge_over": -0.0362,
"edge_under": 0.0362,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0805,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0912,
"ev_under": 0.0653,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.022,
"implied_over": 0.6372,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6388,
"implied_under": 0.3628,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3612,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5447,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.6388,
"model_prob": 0.601,
"p_final": 0.6182
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3962,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.022,
"implied_prob": 0.3612,
"model_prob": 0.399,
"p_final": 0.3762
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6182,
"p_final_under": 0.3762,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.11,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0653,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1193,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0653,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0653,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1193,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 63,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Jose Earthquakes at 37.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Jose Earthquakes as the value side (37.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Jose Earthquakes",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side San Jose Earthquakes \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490482 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes).",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Jose Earthquakes).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0086,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3731,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3460207612456747,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0783,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.636,
"draw_prob": 0.2659,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3731,
"over_prob": 0.601,
"total_xg": 3.11,
"under_prob": 0.399,
"xg_diff": 0.03
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0086,
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3731,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "San Jose Earthquakes"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.413,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"edge": 0.0046,
"market_prob": 0.3529,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.364,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.413,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0562,
"implied_prob": 0.3529,
"model_prob": 0.364,
"p_final": 0.3575
},
"p_final": 0.3575,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0562,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5679,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.0773,
"implied_prob": 0.6471,
"model_prob": 0.636,
"p_final": 0.6408
}
},
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0172,
"implied_prob": 0.3501,
"model_prob": 0.364,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3962,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"edge": 0.015,
"market_prob": 0.3612,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.399,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5447,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.6388,
"model_prob": 0.601,
"p_final": 0.6182
},
"p_final": 0.3762,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.022,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3962,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.022,
"implied_prob": 0.3612,
"model_prob": 0.399,
"p_final": 0.3762
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0362,
"ev": 0.0653,
"implied_prob": 0.3628,
"model_prob": 0.399,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1490482,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0653,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.361,
"draw": 0.2659,
"home": 0.3731
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Los Angeles FC",
"home": "San Jose Earthquakes"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.024752,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0653,
"implied_prob": 0.3628,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.399,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0086,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3731,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3460207612456747,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0783,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490482,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T20:09:33.868122+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Major League Soccer — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 50 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 45 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 44 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 36 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 9 | Seattle Sounders | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 59 | 26 | +33 | 50 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 27 | 50 | 42 | +8 | 47 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 45 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 |
| 5 | San Diego | 27 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 44 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 43 | 30 | +13 | 41 |
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 32 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 27 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 29 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Austin FC | 27 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 31 |
| 13 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 44 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 26 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 31 | 63 | -32 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15.4 | 7.0 | +8.4 | 50 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 26 | 16.2 | 8.0 | +8.2 | 44 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 12.7 | 7.5 | +5.2 | 36 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 19.0 | 14.2 | +4.8 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 27 | 17.8 | 13.3 | +4.5 | 29 |
| 6 | San Diego | 27 | 14.7 | 12.0 | +2.7 | 32 |
| 7 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13.6 | 13.1 | +0.5 | 45 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 11.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 14.5 | 15.8 | -1.3 | 41 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 27 | 10.4 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 47 |
| 11 | Austin FC | 27 | 9.5 | 13.7 | -4.2 | 31 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 26 | 10.6 | 15.4 | -4.8 | 35 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 14.2 | 19.2 | -5.0 | 32 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 9.8 | 18.2 | -8.4 | 21 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 11.2 | 21.1 | -9.9 | 36 |
