The model missed the final outcome (Argentina W win 0–1).
The model had projected Ecuador W at 52.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Ecuador W Argentina W ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 0-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Argentina W win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Jun 09, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Ecuador W 1.81 — Argentina W 1.12
-
Jun 09, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Argentina W win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
1.92
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Argentina W win · Ecuador W 0–1 Argentina W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 52.1%
- Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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],
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"fair_prob_pct": 52.11,
"hero_side": "home",
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"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Ecuador W"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
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"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 18.41,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Ecuador W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"model_prob_pct": 52.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Ecuador W, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.41,
"hero_label": "Ecuador W",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Ecuador W odds shortened \u2193 -3.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Ecuador W.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Ecuador W.",
"Confirmation remains limited (3/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Ecuador W more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Ecuador W (\u2193 -3.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/11), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 18.41,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 26.2,
"max_prob_pct": 52.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 18.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 52.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ecuador W",
"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.87,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.12,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Argentina W",
"market_prob_pct": 37.18,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Argentina W (33.7%).",
"Ecuador W has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.0%, 3/11).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ecuador W, Market \u2192 Argentina W, Recent sharp money \u2192 Ecuador W.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.45,
"closing_odds": 2.67,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.45,
"entry_odds": 2.67,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "3/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Ecuador W (swing 2.85 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.62) \u2014 net 3.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "2.85 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 57m",
"pick_team": "Ecuador W",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.85"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,6.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Ecuador W",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/11",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Ecuador W",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_team_name": "Ecuador W",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1782,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1782.webp",
"away_team_name": "Argentina W",
"country_code": null,
"country_flag": null,
"country_name": null,
"fixture_id": 1483045,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_id": 1731,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1731.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ecuador W",
"league_country": "World",
"league_id": 1206,
"league_logo": null,
"league_name": "CONMEBOL Nations League Women",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-09 20:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3478,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0527,
"ev": -0.2277,
"implied_prob": 0.3718,
"model_prob": 0.2204,
"p_final": 0.3191
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2853,
"best_odd": 3.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.129,
"implied_prob": 0.2912,
"model_prob": 0.2585,
"p_final": 0.2819
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3257,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.06,
"ev": 0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.337,
"model_prob": 0.5211,
"p_final": 0.397
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.84,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"edge_no": -0.0973,
"edge_yes": 0.0973,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2235,
"ev_yes": 0.156,
"implied_no": 0.5193,
"implied_yes": 0.4807,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.61,
"edge_over": 0.147,
"edge_under": -0.147,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3184,
"ev_under": -0.2932,
"implied_over": 0.414,
"implied_under": 0.586,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.93,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3184,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.578,
"draw_prob": 0.2585,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5211,
"over_prob": 0.561,
"total_xg": 2.93,
"under_prob": 0.439,
"xg_diff": 0.69
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.06,
"ev": 0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.337,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5211,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ecuador W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0973,
"ev": 0.156,
"implied_prob": 0.4807,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.147,
"ev": 0.3184,
"implied_prob": 0.414,
"model_prob": 0.561,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1483045,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3184,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2204,
"draw": 0.2585,
"home": 0.5211
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.156,
"implied_prob": 0.4807,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.156,
"implied_prob": 0.4807,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Argentina W",
"home": "Ecuador W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.223278,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3184,
"implied_prob": 0.414,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.561,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1483045,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-09T19:59:04.965831+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia Femenina | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Argentina W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Venezuela Femenino | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Ecuador W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Peru W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Paraguay W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Chile W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Uruguay W | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Bolivia W | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezuela Femenino | 8 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 12 |
| 2 | Argentina W | 8 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 18 |
| 3 | Paraguay W | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Colombia Femenina | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Peru W | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 6 | Chile W | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Ecuador W | 8 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Uruguay W | 8 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Bolivia W | 8 | 2 | 40 | -38 | 1 |
