| Steam de mercado | Fuerte |
|---|---|
| EV actual | Negativo |
| Presión línea de cierre | Alto |
| Valor restante | Limitado |
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "34317d9acdb33e3af5274fb54c72a2664c915b9378be73d4181f2720e2b8b994",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or S\u0259bail",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "S\u0259bail"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ming\u0259\u00e7evir",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0089,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4088,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 17,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 73.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 80.8,
"no_prob": 41.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 59.0,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 59.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.35,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ming\u0259\u00e7evir or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ming\u0259\u00e7evir or S\u0259bail",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or S\u0259bail",
"prob": 90.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or S\u0259bail",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 45.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.7,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 50.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.6,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.7,
"under_prob": 49.4
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "S\u0259bail",
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ming\u0259\u00e7evir",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.88,
"gap_pp": 0.89,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.11,
"gap_pp": -2.44,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.01,
"gap_pp": 1.55,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.72,
"gap_pp": 6.88,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 50.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.28,
"gap_pp": -6.88,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 49.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.88,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.2,
"early": 3.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.9,
"early": 2.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.01,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.15,
"early": 2.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.72,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.72,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.28,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2415,
"ev_yes": 0.1505,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1505,
"no_prob": 41.0,
"sort_key": 10285.45,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 59.0
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0879,
"ev_under": -0.1108,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0879,
"over_prob": 50.6,
"sort_key": 10079.11,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 49.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.092,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4088,
"max_ev": -0.0808,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Ming\u0259\u00e7evir",
"sort_key": 1779.8,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.2
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 4199,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4199.webp",
"away_team_name": "S\u0259bail",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/az.svg",
"country_name": "Azerbaijan",
"fixture_id": 1466980,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 5573,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5573.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ming\u0259\u00e7evir",
"league_country": "Azerbaijan",
"league_id": 418,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/418.webp",
"league_name": "Birinci Dasta",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-22 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4395,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0808,
"implied_prob": 0.3101,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.317
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.289,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.007,
"ev": -0.1232,
"implied_prob": 0.2811,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.274
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.444,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.4088,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.4127
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"edge_no": -0.0976,
"edge_yes": 0.0976,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2415,
"ev_yes": 0.1505,
"implied_no": 0.5076,
"implied_yes": 0.4924,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.8,
"edge_over": 0.061,
"edge_under": -0.061,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0879,
"ev_under": -0.1108,
"implied_over": 0.445,
"implied_under": 0.555,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1505,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.59,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.4088,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ming\u0259\u00e7evir"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0976,
"ev": 0.1505,
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"model_prob": 0.59,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.061,
"ev": 0.0879,
"implied_prob": 0.445,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1466980,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1505,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "S\u0259bail",
"home": "Ming\u0259\u00e7evir"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.088795,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1505,
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.59,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1466980,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-22T18:22:38.452287+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Birinci Dasta — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Safa Baku | 26 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 57 |
| 2 | Səbail | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 50 |
| 3 | Mingəçevir | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 48 |
| 4 | Baku Sportinq | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 48 |
| 5 | Şahdağ | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | MOIK | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 33 |
| 7 | Zaqatala | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 25 |
| 8 | Cəbrayıl | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 9 | Şimal | 27 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 20 |
| 10 | Difai Ağsu | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Safa Baku | 26 | 51 | 19 | +32 | 57 |
| 2 | Mingəçevir | 26 | 51 | 26 | +25 | 48 |
| 3 | Səbail | 26 | 45 | 17 | +28 | 50 |
| 4 | Cəbrayıl | 27 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 24 |
| 5 | Baku Sportinq | 26 | 39 | 22 | +17 | 48 |
| 6 | Şahdağ | 26 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 42 |
| 7 | MOIK | 27 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Difai Ağsu | 27 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 18 |
| 9 | Zaqatala | 26 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 25 |
| 10 | Şimal | 27 | 23 | 61 | -38 | 20 |
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