The model missed the final outcome (Cape Town City win 2–4).
The model had projected Leicesterfield at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Leicesterfield Cape Town City ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0 2-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicesterfield | 41.8% | 14.1% | +27.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 24.8% | +0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Cape Town City | 32.6% | 61.1% | -28.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Cape Town City's win probability at 61.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 28.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Cape Town City win 2–4.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Leicesterfield by 28.5 percentage points (70.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
May 17, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Leicesterfield 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Cape Town City 32.6%
- xG · Leicesterfield 1.45 — Cape Town City 1.25
-
May 17, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Leicesterfield 6.28 · Draw 3.64 · Cape Town City 1.49
- Implied 1X2 · Leicesterfield 14.4% · Draw 24.9% · Cape Town City 60.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 17, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Leicesterfield 6.48 · Draw 3.70 · Cape Town City 1.50
- Implied 1X2 · Leicesterfield 14.1% · Draw 24.8% · Cape Town City 61.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 17, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cape Town City win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
49/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.5
AI Fair Odds
2.39
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Cape Town City win · Leicesterfield 2–4 Cape Town City
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 41.8%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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}
},
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},
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},
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],
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},
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},
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}
},
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"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T12:59:53.199166+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División de Sudáfrica — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kruger United | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 62 |
| 2 | Cape Town City | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 54 |
| 3 | Milford FC | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 4 | Casric Stars | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 52 |
| 5 | Hungry Lions | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 52 |
| 6 | Highbury FC | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 7 | Upington City | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 8 | Lerumo Lions | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Venda FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 10 | The Bees | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35 |
| 11 | Universidad de Pretoria | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 35 |
| 12 | Leicesterfield | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 34 |
| 13 | Gomora United FC | 30 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 33 |
| 14 | Midlands Wanderers | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 |
| 15 | Black Leopards | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 28 |
| 16 | Baroka FC | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kruger United | 30 | 50 | 34 | +16 | 62 |
| 2 | Casric Stars | 30 | 46 | 27 | +19 | 52 |
| 3 | Cape Town City | 30 | 45 | 23 | +22 | 54 |
| 4 | Hungry Lions | 30 | 41 | 25 | +16 | 52 |
| 5 | Milford FC | 30 | 40 | 24 | +16 | 54 |
| 6 | The Bees | 30 | 37 | 36 | +1 | 35 |
| 7 | Universidad de Pretoria | 30 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 35 |
| 8 | Lerumo Lions | 30 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 39 |
| 9 | Upington City | 30 | 35 | 33 | +2 | 39 |
| 10 | Highbury FC | 30 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 42 |
| 11 | Gomora United FC | 30 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 33 |
| 12 | Midlands Wanderers | 30 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 33 |
| 13 | Black Leopards | 30 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 28 |
| 14 | Leicesterfield | 30 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 34 |
| 15 | Venda FC | 30 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 36 |
| 16 | Baroka FC | 30 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 20 |
