Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Al-Ahli Jeddah Favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 73.5%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
Al-Ahli Jeddah lidera direccionalmente tanto la red de modelos como los precios de mercado.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1 3-0 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "02d36a1f1b11da33814c0b6f6da7eb972c22782b8efe4aea486de2d797cfe5e4",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.62,
"away_win_prob": 0.0764,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.1886,
"fair_odds_away": 13.09,
"fair_odds_draw": 5.3,
"fair_odds_home": 1.36,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.735,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Al-Ahli Jeddah"
},
"away_xg": 0.62,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0233,
"edge_gap": 0.5464,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.7583,
"model_prob": 0.735,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 7.6,
"draw": 18.9,
"home": 73.5
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.25
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.25,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Al-Ahli Jeddah Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.32,
"market_odds": 1.25,
"model_odds": 1.36,
"overround": 5.5,
"prob_edge": -6.5,
"value_pct": -8.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 13,
"away_played": 32,
"away_score_rate": 46.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 16,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 32,
"home_score_rate": 89.5,
"no_prob": 57.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 42.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.62,
"home_expected": 2.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 14.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah or Draw",
"prob": 92.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Kholood",
"prob": 81.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Al Kholood",
"prob": 26.5
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah or Draw",
"pick_prob": 92.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 7.6,
"draw_pct": 18.9,
"home_pct": 73.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.87,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 54.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 54.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.87,
"under_prob": 45.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 16.4,
"implied_prob": 16.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 18.9,
"odds": 6.16
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Al Kholood",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 75.83,
"gap_pp": -2.33,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 73.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 15.39,
"gap_pp": 3.47,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 18.86
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 8.78,
"gap_pp": -1.15,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 7.64
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.22,
"gap_pp": -7.52,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 54.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.78,
"gap_pp": 7.52,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 45.3
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.25,
"early": 1.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 75.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 75.83,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 6.16,
"early": 6.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 15.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 15.39,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 10.79,
"early": 10.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 8.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 8.78,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.53,
"early": 1.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.22,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.52,
"early": 2.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.78,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 14.4
}
},
"home_xg": 2.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1521,
"ev_under": 0.2684,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2684,
"over_prob": 54.7,
"sort_key": 10391.56,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 45.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1232,
"ev_yes": -0.1944,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1232,
"no_prob": 57.6,
"sort_key": 10110.88,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 42.4
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.069,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.7583,
"max_ev": -0.0116,
"model_prob": 0.735,
"side_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"sort_key": 1797.1,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 823.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
"top_prob": 14.4
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 10509,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10509.webp",
"away_team_name": "Al Kholood",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
"country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
"fixture_id": 1436204,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 2929,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2929.webp",
"home_team_name": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
"league_id": 307,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/307.webp",
"league_name": "Pro League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-16 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"best_odd": 10.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0023,
"ev": -0.0765,
"implied_prob": 0.0878,
"model_prob": 0.0764,
"p_final": 0.0856
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1896,
"best_odd": 6.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0116,
"implied_prob": 0.1539,
"model_prob": 0.1886,
"p_final": 0.1605
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5791,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.069,
"implied_prob": 0.7583,
"model_prob": 0.735,
"p_final": 0.7448
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.95,
"best_yes_odd": 1.9,
"edge_no": 0.0763,
"edge_yes": -0.0763,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1232,
"ev_yes": -0.1944,
"implied_no": 0.4997,
"implied_yes": 0.5003,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.55,
"best_under_odd": 2.8,
"edge_over": -0.0804,
"edge_under": 0.0804,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1521,
"ev_under": 0.2684,
"implied_over": 0.6274,
"implied_under": 0.3726,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.87,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2684,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.424,
"draw_prob": 0.1886,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.735,
"over_prob": 0.547,
"total_xg": 2.87,
"under_prob": 0.453,
"xg_diff": 1.63
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.069,
"implied_prob": 0.7583,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.735,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0763,
"ev": 0.1232,
"implied_prob": 0.4997,
"model_prob": 0.576,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0804,
"ev": 0.2684,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"model_prob": 0.453,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1436204,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2684,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.0764,
"draw": 0.1886,
"home": 0.735
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1232,
"implied_prob": 0.4997,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.576,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1232,
"implied_prob": 0.4997,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.576,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Al Kholood",
"home": "Al-Ahli Jeddah"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.121585,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2684,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.453,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1436204,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T17:59:04.379681+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Pro League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Nassr | 34 | 28 | 2 | 4 | 86 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 34 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 84 |
| 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 34 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 81 |
| 4 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 34 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 77 |
| 5 | Al-Ittihad FC | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 55 |
| 6 | Al Taawon | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 53 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 50 |
| 8 | NEOM | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 45 |
| 9 | Al-Hazm | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 42 |
| 10 | Al-Fayha | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 |
| 11 | Al-Fateh | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 37 |
| 12 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 37 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 35 |
| 14 | Al Kholood | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 33 |
| 15 | Al Riyadh | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 30 |
| 16 | Damac | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 29 |
| 17 | Al Okhdood | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 20 |
| 18 | Al Najma | 34 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 16 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Nassr | 34 | 91 | 28 | +63 | 86 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 34 | 85 | 27 | +58 | 84 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 34 | 83 | 34 | +49 | 77 |
| 4 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 34 | 71 | 25 | +46 | 81 |
| 5 | Al Taawon | 34 | 59 | 46 | +13 | 53 |
| 6 | Al-Ittihad FC | 34 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 55 |
| 7 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 34 | 54 | 62 | -8 | 37 |
| 8 | Al-Ettifaq | 34 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 50 |
| 9 | Al Shabab | 34 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 35 |
| 10 | NEOM | 34 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 45 |
| 11 | Al-Fayha | 34 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 38 |
| 12 | Al-Fateh | 34 | 41 | 55 | -14 | 37 |
| 13 | Al Kholood | 34 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 33 |
| 14 | Al-Hazm | 34 | 38 | 57 | -19 | 42 |
| 15 | Al Riyadh | 34 | 35 | 63 | -28 | 30 |
| 16 | Damac | 34 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 29 |
| 17 | Al Najma | 34 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 16 |
| 18 | Al Okhdood | 34 | 27 | 70 | -43 | 20 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 34 | 67.1 | 25.3 | +41.8 | 84 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 34 | 67.0 | 25.7 | +41.3 | 86 |
| 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 34 | 57.5 | 25.4 | +32.1 | 81 |
| 4 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 34 | 62.9 | 35.2 | +27.7 | 77 |
| 5 | Al-Ittihad FC | 34 | 49.5 | 41.2 | +8.3 | 55 |
| 6 | NEOM | 34 | 45.8 | 39.4 | +6.4 | 45 |
| 7 | Al Shabab | 34 | 44.1 | 44.7 | -0.6 | 35 |
| 8 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 34 | 42.0 | 44.5 | -2.5 | 37 |
| 9 | Al Taawon | 34 | 42.0 | 44.7 | -2.7 | 53 |
| 10 | Al-Fateh | 34 | 41.1 | 44.8 | -3.7 | 37 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 34 | 41.4 | 50.5 | -9.1 | 30 |
| 12 | Al-Fayha | 34 | 33.3 | 43.4 | -10.1 | 38 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 34 | 34.1 | 47.4 | -13.3 | 42 |
| 14 | Damac | 34 | 25.1 | 38.5 | -13.4 | 29 |
| 15 | Al Kholood | 34 | 32.9 | 48.7 | -15.8 | 33 |
| 16 | Al-Ettifaq | 34 | 39.0 | 56.5 | -17.5 | 50 |
| 17 | Al Najma | 34 | 28.1 | 61.0 | -32.9 | 16 |
| 18 | Al Okhdood | 34 | 26.8 | 62.8 | -36.0 | 20 |
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