Auditoría de predicción: Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Al-Fayha

May 04, 2026 - 16:10

4 1.68

2 1.59

xG Accuracy: 47%

Al Riyadh

AI correctly predicted the Al-Fayha win.

The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Grado de predicción A

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
1X2 Al-Fayha Al-Fayha ✔ Correcto
Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrecto

Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre

Resultado	Modelo	Mercado de cierre	Diferencia	Señal
Al-Fayha	39.0%	38.5%	+0.5 pp	Aligned
Draw	25.8%	27.9%	-2.2 pp	Aligned
Al Riyadh	35.2%	33.5%	+1.7 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Al-Fayha win 4–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.27) — 6 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Al-Fayha win 4–2).

Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse

Cronología de predicción

Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.

May 04, 2026 · 16:09 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al-Fayha 39.0% · Draw 25.8% · Al Riyadh 35.2%
- xG · Al-Fayha 1.68 — Al Riyadh 1.59
May 04, 2026 · 15:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al-Fayha 2.47 · Draw 3.41 · Al Riyadh 2.84
- Implied 1X2 · Al-Fayha 38.5% · Draw 27.9% · Al Riyadh 33.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 04, 2026 · 16:09 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al-Fayha 2.47 · Draw 3.41 · Al Riyadh 2.84
- Implied 1X2 · Al-Fayha 38.5% · Draw 27.9% · Al Riyadh 33.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 04, 2026 · 16:10 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Al-Fayha win · 4–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Instantánea histórica

Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.

Veredicto histórico: Observe

Decisión histórica No Primary Bet

Resultado Validated

Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)

Fiabilidad de predicción 78/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidencia ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 89/100

Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454677

Closing Odds 3.41

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Al-Fayha win · Al-Fayha 4–2 Al Riyadh

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Revisar preguntas frecuentes

¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?: Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
¿Qué mide la precisión xG?: xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?: Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?: Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.

Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON

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Liga Profesional Saudí — Clasificación

#	EQUIPO	PJ	G	E	P	Pts
1	Al-Nassr	34	28	2	4	86
2	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	34	25	9	0	84
3	Al-Ahli Jeddah	34	25	6	3	81
4	Al-Qadisiyah FC	34	23	8	3	77
5	Al-Ittihad FC	34	16	7	11	55
6	Al Taawon	34	15	8	11	53
7	Al-Ettifaq	34	14	8	12	50
8	NEOM	34	12	9	13	45
9	Al-Hazm	34	11	9	14	42
10	Al-Fayha	34	10	8	16	38
11	Al-Fateh	34	9	10	15	37
12	Al Khaleej Saihat	34	10	7	17	37
13	Al Shabab	34	8	11	15	35
14	Al Kholood	34	9	6	19	33
15	Al Riyadh	34	7	9	18	30
16	Damac	34	6	11	17	29
17	Al Akhdoud	34	5	5	24	20
18	Al Najma	34	3	7	24	16

#	EQUIPO	PJ	GF	GC	+/-	Pts
1	Al-Nassr	34	91	28	+63	86
2	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	34	85	27	+58	84
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	34	83	34	+49	77
4	Al-Ahli Jeddah	34	71	25	+46	81
5	Al Taawon	34	59	46	+13	53
6	Al-Ittihad FC	34	55	48	+7	55
7	Al Khaleej Saihat	34	54	62	-8	37
8	Al-Ettifaq	34	51	55	-4	50
9	Al Shabab	34	44	57	-13	35
10	NEOM	34	43	48	-5	45
11	Al-Fayha	34	41	54	-13	38
12	Al-Fateh	34	41	55	-14	37
13	Al Kholood	34	39	61	-22	33
14	Al-Hazm	34	38	57	-19	42
15	Al Riyadh	34	35	63	-28	30
16	Damac	34	32	55	-23	29
17	Al Najma	34	32	76	-44	16
18	Al Akhdoud	34	27	70	-43	20

#	EQUIPO	PJ	xG	xGC	+/-	Pts
1	Al-Nassr	34	69.8	26.0	+43.8	86
2	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	34	68.9	25.9	+43.0	84
3	Al-Ahli Jeddah	34	62.4	26.7	+35.7	81
4	Al-Qadisiyah FC	34	62.9	35.2	+27.7	77
5	Al-Ittihad FC	34	49.5	41.2	+8.3	55
6	NEOM	34	45.8	39.4	+6.4	45
7	Al Shabab	34	44.1	44.7	-0.6	35
8	Al Taawon	34	42.0	44.7	-2.7	53
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	34	42.6	46.3	-3.7	37
10	Al-Fateh	34	42.5	49.6	-7.1	37
11	Al Riyadh	34	41.4	50.5	-9.1	30
12	Al-Fayha	34	33.3	43.4	-10.1	38
13	Al-Hazm	34	34.1	47.4	-13.3	42
14	Damac	34	25.1	38.5	-13.4	29
15	Al-Ettifaq	34	39.0	56.5	-17.5	50
16	Al Kholood	34	33.2	51.5	-18.3	33
17	Al Najma	34	28.1	61.0	-32.9	16
18	Al Akhdoud	34	26.8	62.8	-36.0	20