Predicciones / Fútbol / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / Colonia Moscardó vs Navalcarnero

Colonia Moscardó vs Navalcarnero Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Apr 26, 2026 - 16:00
1.45
1.25
35% 35% 30%
Betting decision (model & EV)
1X2 No bet — no value vs. current odds
Match: 35.0% Colonia Moscardó; implied 40.0%; EV -12.5%
Primary (weak / speculative): Empate — Value (Speculative) · EV 19.0% · Model 35.0%
Not a dominant outcome (model probability is below 50% on this leg).
High model EV on this line, but a low model hit-rate — treat as a speculative, not a “banker”.
Alternative (more stable for typical stakes): BTTS No · EV 10.2% · 55.1% model
Higher model probability on this line than the weak primary — often a better default for “standard” bet sizing.
Lower EV than primary, but with higher model probability (more “stable” when shown).
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
Más / Menos de 2.5
Más de 2.5 50.6%
Menos de 2.5 49.4%
No value — this market is efficiently priced at the best available odds (no line clears the +EV threshold).
Ambos Equipos Marcarán
44.9%
No 55.1%
Selección de IA: BTTS No
Principales Predicciones de Marcador Correcto
1-1 12.2%
0-1 9.7%
1-2 8.8%
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).
Confianza: 6.0 / 9
  • Primary line identified (+1.0)
  • Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
  • Draw probability above 30% (−0.5)
  • Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Over 1.2% · EV Under -9.6% (7 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -21.42% · EV No 10.2%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# EQUIPO PJ W D L PTS
1 SS Reyes 32 20 7 5 67
2 Rayo Majadahonda 32 19 9 4 66
3 Getafe II 32 16 9 7 57
4 Conquense 32 14 12 6 54
5 CD Coria 32 14 9 9 51
6 Tenerife II 32 15 5 12 50
7 RSD Alcalá 32 14 8 10 50
8 Orihuela 32 11 10 11 43
9 Elche II 32 10 11 11 41
10 Navalcarnero 32 10 9 13 39
11 Las Palmas II 32 10 8 14 38
12 Real Madrid III 32 10 7 15 37
13 Intercity 32 9 10 13 37
14 Fuenlabrada 32 9 9 14 36
15 Quintanar del Rey 32 10 5 17 35
16 Colonia Moscardó 32 9 6 17 33
17 Rayo Vallecano II 32 9 3 20 30
18 Socuéllamos 32 6 9 17 27
# EQUIPO PJ GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tenerife II 32 56 49 +7 50
2 Getafe II 32 54 32 +22 57
3 Elche II 32 50 49 +1 41
4 Rayo Majadahonda 32 49 23 +26 66
5 SS Reyes 32 48 23 +25 67
6 CD Coria 32 44 37 +7 51
7 Orihuela 32 42 40 +2 43
8 RSD Alcalá 32 41 37 +4 50
9 Conquense 32 40 30 +10 54
10 Las Palmas II 32 39 43 -4 38
11 Real Madrid III 32 39 44 -5 37
12 Intercity 32 39 45 -6 37
13 Navalcarnero 32 37 41 -4 39
14 Colonia Moscardó 32 37 55 -18 33
15 Fuenlabrada 32 34 41 -7 36
16 Quintanar del Rey 32 33 42 -9 35
17 Socuéllamos 32 31 54 -23 27
18 Rayo Vallecano II 32 30 58 -28 30