Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Modena Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 55.4%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
El modelo se inclina hacia el {equipo}, con una modesta separación de otros resultados. Monitoree el movimiento del mercado antes del inicio.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Modena Modena ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "bb91b8db30c1e2295fd9ca62d31b3e5e62bb0787d31dd75dcf5e36dea2c17b68",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.81,
"away_win_prob": 0.1702,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2762,
"fair_odds_away": 5.88,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.62,
"fair_odds_home": 1.81,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.63,
"home_win_prob": 0.5536,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Reggiana",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Reggiana"
},
"away_xg": 0.81,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Modena",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0166,
"edge_gap": 0.2766,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5698,
"model_prob": 0.5532,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 17.0,
"draw": 27.7,
"home": 55.3
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 1.7
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.67
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.67
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 1.65
},
{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 1.65
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"odd": 1.63
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 1.63
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 1.62
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.7,
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"display_market": "Modena Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.76,
"market_odds": 1.63,
"model_odds": 1.81,
"overround": 7.4,
"prob_edge": -3.6,
"value_pct": -6.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 36,
"away_score_rate": 55.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 14,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 36,
"home_score_rate": 80.4,
"no_prob": 53.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 46.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.81,
"home_expected": 1.63,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Modena or Draw",
"prob": 83.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Modena or Reggiana",
"prob": 72.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Reggiana",
"prob": 44.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Modena or Draw",
"pick_prob": 83.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 17.0,
"draw_pct": 27.6,
"home_pct": 55.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Modena"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.44,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 44.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 55.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.44,
"under_prob": 55.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 15.9,
"implied_prob": 23.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 27.6,
"odds": 4.2
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"best_odds": 15.25,
"edge": 2.2,
"ev": 32.9,
"label": "0-0",
"probability": 8.7
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.2
}
},
"home_xg": 1.63,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1753,
"ev_under": 0.1459,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1459,
"over_prob": 44.1,
"sort_key": 10281.31,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 55.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.078,
"ev_yes": -0.1287,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.078,
"no_prob": 53.9,
"sort_key": 10070.2,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 46.1
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0885,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5678,
"max_ev": -0.0312,
"model_prob": 0.5532,
"side_label": "Modena",
"sort_key": 1792.2,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 822.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 14.2
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 880,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/880.webp",
"away_team_name": "Reggiana",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1419957,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 899,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/899.webp",
"home_team_name": "Modena",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_id": 136,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/136.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-01 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1926,
"best_odd": 4.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.1949,
"model_prob": 0.1703,
"p_final": 0.1901
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2823,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0312,
"implied_prob": 0.2373,
"model_prob": 0.2766,
"p_final": 0.2484
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5868,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0885,
"implied_prob": 0.5678,
"model_prob": 0.5532,
"p_final": 0.5592
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.89,
"edge_no": 0.0598,
"edge_yes": -0.0598,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.078,
"ev_yes": -0.1287,
"implied_no": 0.4792,
"implied_yes": 0.5208,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.87,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.084,
"edge_under": 0.084,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1753,
"ev_under": 0.1459,
"implied_over": 0.525,
"implied_under": 0.475,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.44,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1459,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.461,
"draw_prob": 0.2766,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5532,
"over_prob": 0.441,
"total_xg": 2.44,
"under_prob": 0.559,
"xg_diff": 0.82
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0885,
"implied_prob": 0.5678,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.5532,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Modena"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0598,
"ev": 0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.084,
"ev": 0.1459,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"model_prob": 0.559,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1419957,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1459,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1703,
"draw": 0.2766,
"home": 0.5532
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Reggiana",
"home": "Modena"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.071771,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1459,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.559,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1419957,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-01T03:58:27.787150+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie B — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezia | 38 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 82 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 38 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 81 |
| 3 | Monza | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 76 |
| 4 | Palermo | 38 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 72 |
| 5 | Catanzaro | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena | 38 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 55 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 51 |
| 8 | Avellino | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 49 |
| 9 | Mantova | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 46 |
| 10 | Padova | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 46 |
| 11 | Cesena | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 46 |
| 12 | Carrarese | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 44 |
| 13 | Sampdoria | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 44 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 42 |
| 15 | Empoli | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 41 |
| 16 | Sudtirol | 38 | 8 | 17 | 13 | 41 |
| 17 | Bari | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 40 |
| 18 | Reggiana | 38 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 37 |
| 19 | Spezia | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 35 |
| 20 | Pescara | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 35 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezia | 38 | 77 | 31 | +46 | 82 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 38 | 76 | 34 | +42 | 81 |
| 3 | Catanzaro | 38 | 62 | 51 | +11 | 59 |
| 4 | Monza | 38 | 61 | 32 | +29 | 76 |
| 5 | Palermo | 38 | 61 | 33 | +28 | 72 |
| 6 | Pescara | 38 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 35 |
| 7 | Modena | 38 | 49 | 36 | +13 | 55 |
| 8 | Carrarese | 38 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 44 |
| 9 | Empoli | 38 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 41 |
| 10 | Cesena | 38 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 46 |
| 11 | Mantova | 38 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 46 |
| 12 | Juve Stabia | 38 | 44 | 45 | -1 | 51 |
| 13 | Avellino | 38 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 49 |
| 14 | Spezia | 38 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | Padova | 38 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 46 |
| 16 | Sudtirol | 38 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 41 |
| 17 | Bari | 38 | 38 | 60 | -22 | 40 |
| 18 | Virtus Entella | 38 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 42 |
| 19 | Reggiana | 38 | 36 | 56 | -20 | 37 |
| 20 | Sampdoria | 38 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 44 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezia | 38 | 73.9 | 33.1 | +40.8 | 82 |
| 2 | Monza | 38 | 56.5 | 34.9 | +21.6 | 76 |
| 3 | Palermo | 38 | 57.5 | 43.0 | +14.5 | 72 |
| 4 | Frosinone | 38 | 62.1 | 49.0 | +13.1 | 81 |
| 5 | Modena | 38 | 49.2 | 38.5 | +10.7 | 55 |
| 6 | Cesena | 38 | 51.7 | 46.5 | +5.2 | 46 |
| 7 | Sampdoria | 38 | 38.6 | 35.7 | +2.9 | 44 |
| 8 | Empoli | 38 | 46.3 | 44.1 | +2.2 | 41 |
| 9 | Juve Stabia | 38 | 41.7 | 39.6 | +2.1 | 51 |
| 10 | Catanzaro | 38 | 50.2 | 49.0 | +1.2 | 59 |
| 11 | Mantova | 38 | 49.0 | 50.6 | -1.6 | 46 |
| 12 | Sudtirol | 38 | 41.8 | 44.9 | -3.1 | 41 |
| 13 | Virtus Entella | 38 | 45.0 | 48.5 | -3.5 | 42 |
| 14 | Spezia | 38 | 46.9 | 50.5 | -3.6 | 35 |
| 15 | Carrarese | 38 | 45.1 | 55.0 | -9.9 | 44 |
| 16 | Pescara | 38 | 46.4 | 58.1 | -11.7 | 35 |
| 17 | Reggiana | 38 | 33.8 | 48.8 | -15.0 | 37 |
| 18 | Avellino | 38 | 33.6 | 51.9 | -18.3 | 49 |
| 19 | Padova | 38 | 33.3 | 52.3 | -19.0 | 46 |
| 20 | Bari | 38 | 33.3 | 61.8 | -28.5 | 40 |