Predicciones / Fútbol / Poland. III Liga - Group 1 / Wasilków vs Broń Radom

Wasilków vs Broń Radom Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

May 23, 2026 - 16:00
1.45
1.25
42% 26% 33%
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
BTTS No — Valor
vehículo eléctrico 40.1% Modelo 60.9%
Por qué El modelo tasa Wasilków (1X2) unos 14.7 puntos porcentuales por encima de la implícita de cierre — la lectura estructural principal frente a la línea.

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE1 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando Wasilków (1X2),Dibujar (1X2),Más de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Wasilków (1X2) en unos 14.7 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado Modelo % Implícita cierre % Brecha (pp)
Wasilków (1X2) 41.8 27.1 +14.7
Dibujar (1X2) 25.7 24.1 +1.5
Broń Radom (1X2) 32.6 48.8 -16.2
Más de 2,5 goles 61.0 60.0 +1.1
Menos de 2,5 goles 39.0 40.0 -1.1
Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 41.8% en Wasilków (1X2), mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 27.1%. La diferencia —unos 14.7 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE1 · Casa: Bet365

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea
Mercado Temprano (PRE30) Cierre (PRE1) Δ implícita (pp)
Wasilków (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Dibujar (1X2) 3.7 3.7 0.0
Broń Radom (1X2) 1.83 1.83 0.0
Más de 2,5 goles 1.57 1.57 0.0
Menos de 2,5 goles 2.35 2.35 0.0
Más / Menos de 2.5 Tendencia
Más de 2.5 61.0% · Menos de 2.5 39.0%
EV terminado 1.87% · EV inferior -8.35%
Lectura de valor: Más de 2.5
1X2 Tendencia
Wasilków · Modelo 41.8%
implícita 27.1%
Mercado de consenso principal · vehículo eléctrico: 0.7%
Perspectivas de marcador exacto Fuera / diversión
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 10.6%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.0 / 10
  • Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
  • EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
  • Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
Fuera/U 2.5: EV terminado 1.87% · EV inferior -8.35% (7 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -39.0% · EV No 40.07%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "4f9860f6ec54cc7156573373180959471d1dec292a16ef989eca76a778356e28",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
      "away_win_prob": null,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.438,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": null,
      "fair_odds_away": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": null,
      "fair_odds_home": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
      "home_win_prob": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.506,
      "prediction_confidence": "none",
      "under_25_prob": 0.494
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Bro\u0144 Radom",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Bro\u0144 Radom"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.25,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Wasilk\u00f3w",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.147,
        "edge_gap": 0.092,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.2706,
        "model_prob": 0.4177,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 32.6,
          "draw": 25.7,
          "home": 41.8
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": null
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 5,
        "away_failed_to_score": 12,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 62.5,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 12,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 62.5,
        "no_prob": 60.9,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 60.9,
        "source": "stats",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 39.1
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.7,
        "home_expected": 1.45,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 7.3
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 6.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "avg"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Wasilk\u00f3w or Draw",
            "prob": 55.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Wasilk\u00f3w or Bro\u0144 Radom",
            "prob": 55.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Bro\u0144 Radom",
            "prob": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Bro\u0144 Radom",
        "pick_prob": 90.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 45.0,
        "draw_pct": 45.0,
        "home_pct": 10.0,
        "lean_key": "draw",
        "lean_label": "Draw"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.15,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 61.0,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 61.0,
        "source": "avg",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.15,
        "under_prob": 39.0
      },
      "prob_source": null,
      "value_bet_enhanced": null
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Bro\u0144 Radom",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Wasilk\u00f3w",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 27.06,
          "gap_pp": 14.7,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 41.77
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 24.14,
          "gap_pp": 1.53,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 25.67
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 48.8,
          "gap_pp": -16.24,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 32.57
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 59.95,
          "gap_pp": 1.05,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 61.0
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 40.05,
          "gap_pp": -1.05,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 39.0
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 3.3,
          "early": 3.3,
          "implied_closing_pct": 27.06,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 27.06,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.7,
          "early": 3.7,
          "implied_closing_pct": 24.14,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 24.14,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.83,
          "early": 1.83,
          "implied_closing_pct": 48.8,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 48.8,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.57,
          "early": 1.57,
          "implied_closing_pct": 59.95,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 59.95,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.35,
          "early": 2.35,
          "implied_closing_pct": 40.05,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 40.05,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 14.7,
        "kind": "1x2_h"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.6
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.45,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.4007,
        "ev_yes": -0.39,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.4007,
        "no_prob": 60.9,
        "sort_key": 10510.63,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 39.1
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0187,
        "ev_under": -0.0835,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0187,
        "over_prob": 61.0,
        "sort_key": 5214.96,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 39.0,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0065,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.2706,
        "max_ev": 0.0065,
        "model_prob": 0.4177,
        "side_label": "Wasilk\u00f3w",
        "sort_key": 5205.2,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 811.8,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.6
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 16233,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16233.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Bro\u0144 Radom",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
      "country_name": "Poland",
      "fixture_id": 1410454,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 16242,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16242.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Wasilk\u00f3w",
      "league_country": "Poland",
      "league_id": 780,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/780.webp",
      "league_name": "III Liga - Group 1",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-23 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4539,
            "best_odd": 1.83,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0737,
            "ev": -0.2418,
            "implied_prob": 0.488,
            "model_prob": 0.3257,
            "p_final": 0.4143
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2931,
            "best_odd": 3.7,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0045,
            "ev": -0.0903,
            "implied_prob": 0.2414,
            "model_prob": 0.2567,
            "p_final": 0.2459
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2338,
            "best_odd": 3.3,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0344,
            "ev": 0.0065,
            "implied_prob": 0.2706,
            "model_prob": 0.4177,
            "p_final": 0.305
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.3,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.56,
          "edge_no": 0.2001,
          "edge_yes": -0.2001,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.4007,
          "ev_yes": -0.39,
          "implied_no": 0.4089,
          "implied_yes": 0.5911,
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.67,
          "best_under_odd": 2.35,
          "edge_over": 0.0391,
          "edge_under": -0.0391,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0187,
          "ev_under": -0.0835,
          "implied_over": 0.5709,
          "implied_under": 0.4291,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.7,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.4007,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.391,
          "draw_prob": 0.2567,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
          "over_prob": 0.61,
          "total_xg": 2.7,
          "under_prob": 0.39,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0344,
          "ev": 0.0065,
          "implied_prob": 0.2706,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4177,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Wasilk\u00f3w"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2001,
          "ev": 0.4007,
          "implied_prob": 0.4089,
          "model_prob": 0.609,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0391,
          "ev": 0.0187,
          "implied_prob": 0.5709,
          "model_prob": 0.61,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1410454,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.4007,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3257,
        "draw": 0.2567,
        "home": 0.4177
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Bro\u0144 Radom",
        "home": "Wasilk\u00f3w"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.244026,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.4007,
        "implied_prob": 0.4089,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.609,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1410454,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T20:31:56.740999+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

Obtén predicciones premium para Wasilków & Broń Radom!

Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.

Suscríbete ahora
Volver a Predicciones
III Liga - Group 1 III Liga - Group 1Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P PTS
1 Legia Warszawa II 33 26 3 4 81
2 Warta Sieradz 33 20 8 5 68
3 Łomża 32 20 5 7 65
4 Wigry Suwałki 33 19 5 9 62
5 Troszyn 32 17 6 9 57
6 Widzew II 33 16 3 14 51
7 Wisła Płock II 32 14 8 10 50
8 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 32 13 7 12 46
9 Jagiellonia II 32 13 6 13 45
10 Ząbkovia Ząbki 32 13 4 15 43
11 Swit 32 12 5 15 41
12 Mławianka Mława 32 10 7 15 37
13 Olimpia Elbląg 32 10 7 15 37
14 Bełchatów 32 9 7 16 34
15 Wikielec 32 9 6 17 33
16 Broń Radom 32 8 9 15 33
17 Wasilków 32 7 3 22 24
18 Znicz Biała Piska 32 3 3 26 12
# EQUIPO PJ GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa II 33 79 29 +50 81
2 Troszyn 32 74 43 +31 57
3 Łomża 32 73 30 +43 65
4 Ząbkovia Ząbki 32 69 60 +9 43
5 Widzew II 33 68 63 +5 51
6 Warta Sieradz 33 63 34 +29 68
7 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 32 63 52 +11 46
8 Wigry Suwałki 33 61 41 +20 62
9 Mławianka Mława 32 51 56 -5 37
10 Wisła Płock II 32 49 48 +1 50
11 Bełchatów 32 48 70 -22 34
12 Swit 32 47 60 -13 41
13 Jagiellonia II 32 43 43 0 45
14 Olimpia Elbląg 32 43 58 -15 37
15 Wasilków 32 38 74 -36 24
16 Wikielec 32 36 51 -15 33
17 Broń Radom 32 36 55 -19 33
18 Znicz Biała Piska 32 24 98 -74 12