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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Wikielec Bełchatów ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "18a229b3778256b6a5a19063fd5d50ce1849c4a2e02a3f9e9619cb2d764dba7e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Be\u0142chat\u00f3w",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Be\u0142chat\u00f3w"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Wikielec",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0897,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5074,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 75.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 79.3,
"no_prob": 39.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 60.2,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 60.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.65,
"home_expected": 1.65,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 6.1
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Wikielec or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Wikielec or Be\u0142chat\u00f3w",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Be\u0142chat\u00f3w",
"prob": 90.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Be\u0142chat\u00f3w",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 45.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.3,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 64.1,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 64.1,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.3,
"under_prob": 35.9
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.0
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1089,
"ev_under": -0.2461,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1089,
"over_prob": 64.1,
"sort_key": 10248.01,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 35.9,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1244,
"ev_yes": -0.0067,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0067,
"no_prob": 39.8,
"sort_key": 1798.325,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 60.2
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1936,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5074,
"max_ev": -0.0338,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Wikielec",
"sort_key": 1791.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.0
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 4246,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4246.webp",
"away_team_name": "Be\u0142chat\u00f3w",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1410420,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 16243,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16243.webp",
"home_team_name": "Wikielec",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_id": 780,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/780.webp",
"league_name": "III Liga - Group 1",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-09 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2632,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": -0.0338,
"implied_prob": 0.2439,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.2654
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2964,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0024,
"ev": -0.1037,
"implied_prob": 0.2487,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2511
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5193,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0466,
"ev": -0.1936,
"implied_prob": 0.5074,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.4608
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"edge_no": -0.0293,
"edge_yes": 0.0293,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1244,
"ev_yes": -0.0067,
"implied_no": 0.4273,
"implied_yes": 0.5727,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": 0.084,
"edge_under": -0.084,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1089,
"ev_under": -0.2461,
"implied_over": 0.557,
"implied_under": 0.443,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1089,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.602,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.641,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.359,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0466,
"ev": -0.1936,
"implied_prob": 0.5074,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Wikielec"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": -0.0067,
"implied_prob": 0.5727,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.084,
"ev": 0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.557,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1410420,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1089,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Be\u0142chat\u00f3w",
"home": "Wikielec"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069805,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.557,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.641,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1410420,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T16:01:11.638452+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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III Liga - Group 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa II | 33 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 81 |
| 2 | Łomża | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 68 |
| 3 | Warta Sieradz | 33 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 68 |
| 4 | Wigry Suwałki | 33 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 62 |
| 5 | Troszyn | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 57 |
| 6 | Wisła Płock II | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 53 |
| 7 | Widzew II | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 51 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia II | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 48 |
| 9 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 46 |
| 10 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 33 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 44 |
| 11 | Swit | 33 | 12 | 5 | 16 | 41 |
| 12 | Mławianka Mława | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 37 |
| 13 | Olimpia Elbląg | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 37 |
| 14 | Broń Radom | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 36 |
| 15 | Bełchatów | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 34 |
| 16 | Wikielec | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 34 |
| 17 | Wasilków | 33 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 24 |
| 18 | Znicz Biała Piska | 33 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa II | 33 | 79 | 29 | +50 | 81 |
| 2 | Łomża | 33 | 75 | 30 | +45 | 68 |
| 3 | Troszyn | 33 | 74 | 45 | +29 | 57 |
| 4 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 33 | 71 | 62 | +9 | 44 |
| 5 | Widzew II | 33 | 68 | 63 | +5 | 51 |
| 6 | Warta Sieradz | 33 | 63 | 34 | +29 | 68 |
| 7 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 32 | 63 | 52 | +11 | 46 |
| 8 | Wigry Suwałki | 33 | 61 | 41 | +20 | 62 |
| 9 | Wisła Płock II | 33 | 52 | 50 | +2 | 53 |
| 10 | Mławianka Mława | 32 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 37 |
| 11 | Swit | 33 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 41 |
| 12 | Bełchatów | 33 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 34 |
| 13 | Jagiellonia II | 33 | 45 | 44 | +1 | 48 |
| 14 | Olimpia Elbląg | 33 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 37 |
| 15 | Broń Radom | 33 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 36 |
| 16 | Wasilków | 33 | 39 | 78 | -39 | 24 |
| 17 | Wikielec | 33 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 34 |
| 18 | Znicz Biała Piska | 33 | 27 | 100 | -73 | 15 |
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