The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected GVVV Veenendaal at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 GVVV Veenendaal Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GVVV Veenendaal | 41.8% | 42.8% | -1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.1% | +0.6 pp | Aligned |
| AFC Amsterdam | 32.6% | 32.0% | +0.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned GVVV Veenendaal; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
May 16, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · GVVV Veenendaal 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · AFC Amsterdam 32.6%
- xG · GVVV Veenendaal 1.45 — AFC Amsterdam 1.25
-
May 16, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · GVVV Veenendaal 2.11 · Draw 3.60 · AFC Amsterdam 2.82
- Implied 1X2 · GVVV Veenendaal 42.8% · Draw 25.1% · AFC Amsterdam 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 16, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · GVVV Veenendaal 2.11 · Draw 3.60 · AFC Amsterdam 2.82
- Implied 1X2 · GVVV Veenendaal 42.8% · Draw 25.1% · AFC Amsterdam 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 16, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
94/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.11
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · GVVV Veenendaal 1–1 AFC Amsterdam
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or AFC Amsterdam",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
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},
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"betting_insight": {
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"main_pick_meta": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
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"pick": "Yes",
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{
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{
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],
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"key": "1X",
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 55.0
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{
"key": "X2",
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"prob": 90.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or AFC Amsterdam",
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},
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"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
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"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 3.15,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "medium",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 61.0,
"source": "avg",
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"total_expected": 3.15,
"under_prob": 39.0
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "GVVV Veenendaal",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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"gap_pp": -1.07,
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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"league_name": "Tweede Divisie",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-16 13:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
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"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
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],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
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},
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},
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"reliability": "medium"
},
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"edge_over": 0.0267,
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"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
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},
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"confidence": 4.0,
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],
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],
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},
"execution": {
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"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
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"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.61,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.39,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"ev": 0.0496,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.6122,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.686,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.1061,
"implied_prob": 0.4284,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "GVVV Veenendaal"
},
"btts": {
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"ev": 0.0496,
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"model_prob": 0.686,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": -0.0118,
"implied_prob": 0.5833,
"model_prob": 0.61,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1399257,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0496,
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"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "AFC Amsterdam",
"home": "GVVV Veenendaal"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1399257,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T13:29:38.271533+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Tweede Divisie — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 34 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 66 |
| 2 | De Treffers | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 63 |
| 3 | Hoek | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 63 |
| 4 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 56 |
| 5 | HHC Hardenberg | 34 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 56 |
| 6 | Spakenburg | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 56 |
| 7 | Katwijk | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 52 |
| 8 | Almere City II | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 50 |
| 9 | Kozakken Boys | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 47 |
| 10 | Sparta Róterdam II | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 45 |
| 11 | AFC Amsterdam | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 45 |
| 12 | Barendrecht | 34 | 13 | 4 | 17 | 43 |
| 13 | RKAV Volendam | 34 | 13 | 3 | 18 | 42 |
| 14 | GVVV Veenendaal | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 42 |
| 15 | Koninklijke HFC | 34 | 12 | 3 | 19 | 39 |
| 16 | Ijsselmeervogels | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 31 |
| 17 | Excelsior Maassluis | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 31 |
| 18 | ACV | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 30 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 34 | 76 | 55 | +21 | 56 |
| 2 | Spakenburg | 34 | 72 | 60 | +12 | 56 |
| 3 | Sparta Róterdam II | 34 | 71 | 73 | -2 | 45 |
| 4 | Almere City II | 34 | 70 | 62 | +8 | 50 |
| 5 | Quick Boys | 34 | 69 | 35 | +34 | 66 |
| 6 | De Treffers | 34 | 64 | 37 | +27 | 63 |
| 7 | Barendrecht | 34 | 62 | 84 | -22 | 43 |
| 8 | Hoek | 34 | 60 | 37 | +23 | 63 |
| 9 | Katwijk | 34 | 60 | 55 | +5 | 52 |
| 10 | HHC Hardenberg | 34 | 58 | 44 | +14 | 56 |
| 11 | GVVV Veenendaal | 34 | 52 | 67 | -15 | 42 |
| 12 | RKAV Volendam | 34 | 50 | 62 | -12 | 42 |
| 13 | ACV | 34 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 30 |
| 14 | Kozakken Boys | 34 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 47 |
| 15 | AFC Amsterdam | 34 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 45 |
| 16 | Ijsselmeervogels | 34 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 31 |
| 17 | Excelsior Maassluis | 34 | 39 | 58 | -19 | 31 |
| 18 | Koninklijke HFC | 34 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 39 |
