Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Leixoes Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 47.8%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
El modelo se inclina hacia el {equipo}, con una modesta separación de otros resultados. Monitoree el movimiento del mercado antes del inicio.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Leixoes Leixoes ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-0, 0-1 2-1 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "74f0393a2f9580bbaff723b3baaaad57871c5244ffe80e3d1e7fe595dcc3ec52",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.8,
"away_win_prob": 0.207,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3147,
"fair_odds_away": 4.83,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.18,
"fair_odds_home": 2.09,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"home_win_prob": 0.4783,
"prediction_confidence": "low"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Leixoes or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Leixoes",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Leixoes"
},
"away_xg": 0.8,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Leixoes",
"confidence": 47.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Leixoes",
"edge": 0.0177,
"edge_gap": 0.164,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4608,
"model_prob": 0.4785,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 20.7,
"draw": 31.4,
"home": 47.8
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Leixoes"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.04
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.04,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Leixoes Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.17,
"market_odds": 2.04,
"model_odds": 2.09,
"overround": 6.4,
"prob_edge": -1.2,
"value_pct": -2.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 33,
"away_score_rate": 55.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 33,
"home_score_rate": 73.8,
"no_prob": 57.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 42.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.8,
"home_expected": 1.34,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 15.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Leixoes or Draw",
"prob": 79.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Leixoes or Lusit\u00e2nia Lourosa",
"prob": 68.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Lusit\u00e2nia Lourosa",
"prob": 52.2
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Leixoes or Draw",
"pick_prob": 79.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 20.7,
"draw_pct": 31.5,
"home_pct": 47.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Leixoes"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.14,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 36.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 63.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.14,
"under_prob": 63.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 13.1,
"implied_prob": 27.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 31.5,
"odds": 3.59
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Lusit\u00e2nia Lourosa",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Leixoes",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.08,
"gap_pp": 1.77,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 47.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.19,
"gap_pp": 5.26,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.45
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.73,
"gap_pp": -7.03,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 20.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.56,
"gap_pp": -17.46,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 36.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.44,
"gap_pp": 17.46,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 63.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.04,
"early": 2.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.08,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.59,
"early": 3.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.19,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.39,
"early": 3.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.73,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.73,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.76,
"early": 1.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.56,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.03,
"early": 2.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.44,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 15.8
}
},
"home_xg": 1.34,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2852,
"ev_under": 0.2588,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2588,
"over_prob": 36.1,
"sort_key": 10382.92,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 63.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2117,
"ev_yes": -0.2471,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2117,
"no_prob": 57.7,
"sort_key": 10190.53,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 42.3
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0441,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"max_ev": -0.0077,
"model_prob": 0.4785,
"side_label": "Leixoes",
"sort_key": 1798.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 827.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 15.8
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 6358,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6358.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lusit\u00e2nia Lourosa",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1398269,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 244,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/244.webp",
"home_team_name": "Leixoes",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_id": 95,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/95.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Liga",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-17 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2684,
"best_odd": 3.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1238,
"implied_prob": 0.2773,
"model_prob": 0.207,
"p_final": 0.2585
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2763,
"best_odd": 3.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0077,
"implied_prob": 0.2619,
"model_prob": 0.3145,
"p_final": 0.2764
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4381,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0441,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"model_prob": 0.4785,
"p_final": 0.4686
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.78,
"edge_no": 0.1219,
"edge_yes": -0.1219,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2117,
"ev_yes": -0.2471,
"implied_no": 0.4551,
"implied_yes": 0.5449,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.98,
"best_under_odd": 1.97,
"edge_over": -0.144,
"edge_under": 0.144,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2852,
"ev_under": 0.2588,
"implied_over": 0.505,
"implied_under": 0.495,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.14,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2588,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.423,
"draw_prob": 0.3145,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4785,
"over_prob": 0.361,
"total_xg": 2.14,
"under_prob": 0.639,
"xg_diff": 0.54
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0441,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4785,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Leixoes"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1219,
"ev": 0.2117,
"implied_prob": 0.4551,
"model_prob": 0.577,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.144,
"ev": 0.2588,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"model_prob": 0.639,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1398269,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2588,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.207,
"draw": 0.3145,
"home": 0.4785
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2117,
"implied_prob": 0.4551,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.577,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2117,
"implied_prob": 0.4551,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.577,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lusit\u00e2nia Lourosa",
"home": "Leixoes"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.165373,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2588,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.639,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1398269,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T15:01:29.540460+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Leixoes & Lusitânia Lourosa!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Segunda Liga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maritimo | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 66 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 59 |
| 3 | Torreense | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 59 |
| 4 | Vizela | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | FC Porto B | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 51 |
| 6 | União de Leiria | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 50 |
| 7 | Leixoes | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 50 |
| 8 | Feirense | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 46 |
| 9 | Chaves | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 45 |
| 10 | Benfica B | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 44 |
| 11 | Felgueiras 1932 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 44 |
| 12 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 43 |
| 13 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 13 | 3 | 18 | 42 |
| 14 | Penafiel | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 41 |
| 15 | Portimonense | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 40 |
| 16 | Farense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 40 |
| 17 | Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 |
| 18 | Oliveirense | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 58 | 33 | +25 | 59 |
| 2 | União de Leiria | 34 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 50 |
| 3 | Maritimo | 34 | 50 | 29 | +21 | 66 |
| 4 | Torreense | 34 | 46 | 33 | +13 | 59 |
| 5 | Leixoes | 34 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 50 |
| 6 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 34 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 43 |
| 7 | Benfica B | 34 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 44 |
| 8 | Chaves | 34 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 42 |
| 10 | FC Porto B | 34 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 51 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 51 |
| 12 | Portimonense | 34 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 40 |
| 13 | Penafiel | 34 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 41 |
| 14 | Feirense | 34 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 46 |
| 15 | Felgueiras 1932 | 34 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 44 |
| 16 | Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 39 |
| 17 | Oliveirense | 34 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 34 |
| 18 | Farense | 34 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 40 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maritimo | 34 | 9.6 | 5.5 | +4.1 | 66 |
| 2 | Chaves | 34 | 7.5 | 4.3 | +3.2 | 45 |
| 3 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 8.5 | 6.2 | +2.3 | 59 |
| 4 | Feirense | 34 | 2.9 | 1.1 | +1.8 | 46 |
| 5 | Leixoes | 34 | 7.9 | 7.1 | +0.8 | 50 |
| 6 | Portimonense | 34 | 6.2 | 5.4 | +0.8 | 40 |
| 7 | Benfica B | 34 | 4.1 | 3.5 | +0.6 | 44 |
| 8 | Felgueiras 1932 | 34 | 7.2 | 6.7 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 34 | 8.6 | 8.2 | +0.4 | 50 |
| 10 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 3.6 | 3.2 | +0.4 | 42 |
| 11 | Farense | 34 | 3.8 | 4.2 | -0.4 | 40 |
| 12 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 34 | 7.6 | 8.5 | -0.9 | 43 |
| 13 | Vizela | 34 | 3.1 | 4.4 | -1.3 | 51 |
| 14 | Oliveirense | 34 | 6.8 | 8.7 | -1.9 | 34 |
| 15 | Torreense | 34 | 3.1 | 5.0 | -1.9 | 59 |
| 16 | Penafiel | 34 | 4.7 | 7.3 | -2.6 | 41 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 34 | 4.0 | 6.7 | -2.7 | 51 |
| 18 | Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 4.0 | 7.3 | -3.3 | 39 |
UEFA Champions League
Premier League
La Liga
Serie A
Ligue 1
Eredivisie
Bundesliga
UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa Conference League
Primeira Liga
Superliga
Eliteserien
Allsvenskan
World Cup
