Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Kryvbas KR Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 45.9%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
El modelo se inclina hacia el {equipo}, con una modesta separación de otros resultados. Monitoree el movimiento del mercado antes del inicio.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Kryvbas KR Kryvbas KR ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ff163a2aa2a578c4bccd999531d6f1524b0fc96e69f7ac7905145d39cfdd719d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.53,
"away_win_prob": 0.4585,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2868,
"fair_odds_away": 2.18,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.49,
"fair_odds_home": 3.93,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.09,
"home_win_prob": 0.2547,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Kryvbas KR",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Kryvbas KR",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Kryvbas KR"
},
"away_xg": 1.53,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Kryvbas KR",
"confidence": 45.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Kryvbas KR",
"edge": 0.0862,
"edge_gap": 0.1722,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3726,
"model_prob": 0.4589,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 45.9,
"draw": 28.7,
"home": 25.5
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Kryvbas KR"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.49
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Kryvbas KR Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.68,
"market_odds": 2.49,
"model_odds": 2.18,
"overround": 7.8,
"prob_edge": 5.7,
"value_pct": 14.2,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 78.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 14,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 66.4,
"no_prob": 46.4,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.53,
"home_expected": 1.09,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Veres Rivne or Draw",
"prob": 54.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Veres Rivne or Kryvbas KR",
"prob": 71.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Kryvbas KR",
"prob": 74.6
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Kryvbas KR",
"pick_prob": 74.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 45.9,
"draw_pct": 28.7,
"home_pct": 25.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Kryvbas KR"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.62,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 48.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.62,
"under_prob": 51.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 14.3,
"implied_prob": 40.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Kryvbas KR Win",
"model_prob": 45.9,
"odds": 2.49
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Kryvbas KR",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Veres Rivne",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.69,
"gap_pp": -10.23,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 25.45
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.05,
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"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.66
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.26,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.74,
"gap_pp": -6.04,
"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.26,
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"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.6,
"early": 2.6,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.43,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.49,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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},
{
"closing": 1.72,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.08,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
}
},
"home_xg": 1.09,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1234,
"ev_under": 0.0773,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0773,
"over_prob": 48.7,
"sort_key": 10219.57,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0672,
"ev_yes": -0.1156,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 46.4,
"sort_key": 10060.48,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.6
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.012,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": 0.012,
"model_prob": 0.4589,
"side_label": "Kryvbas KR",
"sort_key": 5209.6,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.1
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 6489,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6489.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kryvbas KR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1396813,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 6501,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6501.webp",
"home_team_name": "Veres Rivne",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Premier League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-16 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3918,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": 0.012,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"model_prob": 0.4589,
"p_final": 0.4064
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2928,
"best_odd": 3.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.056,
"implied_prob": 0.2705,
"model_prob": 0.2866,
"p_final": 0.2752
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3809,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.039,
"ev": -0.1735,
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"model_prob": 0.2545,
"p_final": 0.3179
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"edge_no": 0.045,
"edge_yes": -0.045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0672,
"ev_yes": -0.1156,
"implied_no": 0.419,
"implied_yes": 0.581,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0516,
"edge_under": 0.0516,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1234,
"ev_under": 0.0773,
"implied_over": 0.5386,
"implied_under": 0.4614,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.62,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0773,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.536,
"draw_prob": 0.2866,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4589,
"over_prob": 0.487,
"total_xg": 2.62,
"under_prob": 0.513,
"xg_diff": 0.44
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": 0.012,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4589,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Kryvbas KR"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.045,
"ev": 0.0672,
"implied_prob": 0.419,
"model_prob": 0.464,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0516,
"ev": 0.0773,
"implied_prob": 0.4614,
"model_prob": 0.513,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1396813,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0773,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4589,
"draw": 0.2866,
"home": 0.2545
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Kryvbas KR",
"home": "Veres Rivne"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.039655,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0773,
"implied_prob": 0.4614,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.513,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1396813,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T14:57:52.076907+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Premier League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 72 |
| 2 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 60 |
| 3 | Polessya | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 59 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 57 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 51 |
| 6 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 7 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 9 | Karpaty | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 41 |
| 10 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 13 | Kudrivka | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 14 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 30 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 17 |
| 16 | SK Poltava | 30 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 71 | 21 | +50 | 72 |
| 2 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 66 | 36 | +30 | 57 |
| 3 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 53 | 46 | +7 | 48 |
| 4 | Polessya | 30 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 59 |
| 5 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 46 |
| 6 | Karpaty | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 41 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 39 | 17 | +22 | 60 |
| 8 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 36 | 19 | +17 | 51 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Kudrivka | 30 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 28 |
| 11 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 49 |
| 12 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 31 |
| 13 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 31 |
| 14 | Oleksandria | 30 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
| 15 | SK Poltava | 30 | 23 | 74 | -51 | 13 |
| 16 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 30.7 | 10.1 | +20.6 | 57 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 29.8 | 9.8 | +20.0 | 72 |
| 3 | Polessya | 30 | 36.9 | 18.0 | +18.9 | 59 |
| 4 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 28.4 | 12.4 | +16.0 | 60 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 22.0 | 12.7 | +9.3 | 51 |
| 6 | Karpaty | 30 | 24.4 | 20.0 | +4.4 | 41 |
| 7 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 22.6 | 22.2 | +0.4 | 49 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 22.1 | 22.9 | -0.8 | 46 |
| 9 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 12.6 | 16.5 | -3.9 | 31 |
| 10 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 17.2 | 23.2 | -6.0 | 31 |
| 11 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 21.4 | 27.8 | -6.4 | 48 |
| 12 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 16.6 | 23.8 | -7.2 | 21 |
| 13 | Kudrivka | 30 | 17.4 | 29.0 | -11.6 | 28 |
| 14 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 18.9 | 32.2 | -13.3 | 32 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 30 | 10.5 | 25.0 | -14.5 | 17 |
| 16 | SK Poltava | 30 | 10.1 | 36.0 | -25.9 | 13 |