Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Trabzonspor Favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 61.6%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
Trabzonspor lidera direccionalmente tanto la red de modelos como los precios de mercado.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Trabzonspor Gençlerbirliği S.K. ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "aa89c2999e0a30259d4bec6655d3dd53c349369dde64c407c8a243ba7dd437d8",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.8,
"away_win_prob": 0.1399,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2444,
"fair_odds_away": 7.15,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.09,
"fair_odds_home": 1.62,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.88,
"home_win_prob": 0.6157,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Trabzonspor or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Trabzonspor",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Trabzonspor"
},
"away_xg": 0.8,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Trabzonspor",
"confidence": 61.6,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Trabzonspor",
"edge": 0.2985,
"edge_gap": 0.3722,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3178,
"model_prob": 0.6163,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 14.0,
"draw": 24.4,
"home": 61.6
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Trabzonspor"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.03
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.03,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Trabzonspor Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.15,
"market_odds": 3.03,
"model_odds": 1.62,
"overround": 3.9,
"prob_edge": 28.7,
"value_pct": 87.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 13,
"away_played": 33,
"away_score_rate": 55.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 33,
"home_score_rate": 84.7,
"no_prob": 52.0,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 52.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 48.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.8,
"home_expected": 1.88,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Trabzonspor or Draw",
"prob": 86.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Trabzonspor or Genclerbirligi",
"prob": 75.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Genclerbirligi",
"prob": 38.4
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Trabzonspor or Draw",
"pick_prob": 86.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 14.0,
"draw_pct": 24.4,
"home_pct": 61.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Trabzonspor"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.68,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 50.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.68,
"under_prob": 49.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 87.0,
"implied_prob": 33.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Trabzonspor Win",
"model_prob": 61.7,
"odds": 3.03
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Genclerbirligi",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Trabzonspor",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.78,
"gap_pp": 29.85,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 61.63
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.59,
"gap_pp": -3.18,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.63,
"gap_pp": -26.67,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 13.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.38,
"gap_pp": -6.28,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 50.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.62,
"gap_pp": 6.28,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 49.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.03,
"early": 3.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.78,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.49,
"early": 3.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.59,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.37,
"early": 2.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.63,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.71,
"early": 1.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.38,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.21,
"early": 2.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.62,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 29.9,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.9
}
},
"home_xg": 1.88,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 1.75,
"confidence": "strong",
"display_label": "Home Trabzonspor",
"edge": 4.5,
"ev": 8.0,
"probability": 61.6
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.274,
"ev_yes": -0.208,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.274,
"no_prob": 52.0,
"sort_key": 10396.6,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 48.0
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1128,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3178,
"max_ev": 0.1128,
"model_prob": 0.6163,
"side_label": "Trabzonspor",
"sort_key": 10101.52,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1333,
"ev_under": 0.1028,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1028,
"over_prob": 50.1,
"sort_key": 10092.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 49.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 12.9
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 997,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/997.webp",
"away_team_name": "Genclerbirligi",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1394738,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 998,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/998.webp",
"home_team_name": "Trabzonspor",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_id": 203,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/203.webp",
"league_name": "S\u00fcper Lig",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-17 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.27,
"best_odd": 2.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.072,
"ev": -0.2077,
"implied_prob": 0.4063,
"model_prob": 0.1396,
"p_final": 0.3343
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2857,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.0688,
"implied_prob": 0.2759,
"model_prob": 0.2441,
"p_final": 0.2668
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1657,
"best_odd": 3.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0495,
"ev": 0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.3178,
"model_prob": 0.6163,
"p_final": 0.3672
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"edge_no": 0.1202,
"edge_yes": -0.1202,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.274,
"ev_yes": -0.208,
"implied_no": 0.3998,
"implied_yes": 0.6002,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.21,
"edge_over": -0.0614,
"edge_under": 0.0614,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1333,
"ev_under": 0.1028,
"implied_over": 0.5624,
"implied_under": 0.4376,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.68,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.274,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.48,
"draw_prob": 0.2441,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6163,
"over_prob": 0.501,
"total_xg": 2.68,
"under_prob": 0.499,
"xg_diff": 1.08
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0495,
"ev": 0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.3178,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6163,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Trabzonspor"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1202,
"ev": 0.274,
"implied_prob": 0.3998,
"model_prob": 0.52,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0614,
"ev": 0.1028,
"implied_prob": 0.4376,
"model_prob": 0.499,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1394738,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.274,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1396,
"draw": 0.2441,
"home": 0.6163
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.3178,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6163,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Trabzonspor",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.3178,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6163,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Trabzonspor",
"slot": "secondary"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1028,
"implied_prob": 0.4376,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.499,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Genclerbirligi",
"home": "Trabzonspor"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.14248,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.274,
"implied_prob": 0.3998,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.52,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1394738,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T16:59:15.594313+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Süper Lig — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 34 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 77 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 74 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 69 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 60 |
| 5 | Başakşehir | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 57 |
| 6 | Göztepe | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55 |
| 7 | Samsunspor | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 51 |
| 8 | Rizespor | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 41 |
| 9 | Konyaspor | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 40 |
| 10 | Kocaelispor | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 37 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 34 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 37 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 37 |
| 13 | Kasımpaşa | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 35 |
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 34 |
| 15 | Eyüpspor | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 33 |
| 16 | Antalyaspor | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 32 |
| 17 | Kayserispor | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 30 |
| 18 | Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 30 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 34 | 77 | 30 | +47 | 77 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 34 | 77 | 37 | +40 | 74 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 34 | 61 | 39 | +22 | 69 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 34 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 60 |
| 5 | Başakşehir | 34 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 57 |
| 6 | Samsunspor | 34 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 51 |
| 7 | Rizespor | 34 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 41 |
| 8 | Konyaspor | 34 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 40 |
| 9 | Gaziantep FK | 34 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 37 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 34 | 42 | 32 | +10 | 55 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 34 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 37 |
| 12 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 34 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 34 |
| 13 | Eyüpspor | 34 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 33 |
| 14 | Kasımpaşa | 34 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | Antalyaspor | 34 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 31 | 54 | -23 | 30 |
| 17 | Kayserispor | 34 | 27 | 62 | -35 | 30 |
| 18 | Kocaelispor | 34 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 37 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 34 | 68.5 | 32.7 | +35.8 | 77 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 34 | 65.0 | 30.1 | +34.9 | 74 |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 34 | 62.6 | 36.8 | +25.8 | 60 |
| 4 | Başakşehir | 34 | 53.5 | 42.7 | +10.8 | 57 |
| 5 | Göztepe | 34 | 46.6 | 35.8 | +10.8 | 55 |
| 6 | Trabzonspor | 34 | 50.4 | 43.9 | +6.5 | 69 |
| 7 | Samsunspor | 34 | 43.1 | 38.9 | +4.2 | 51 |
| 8 | Rizespor | 34 | 45.3 | 45.5 | -0.2 | 41 |
| 9 | Kocaelispor | 34 | 30.1 | 33.2 | -3.1 | 37 |
| 10 | Konyaspor | 34 | 44.0 | 47.4 | -3.4 | 40 |
| 11 | Gaziantep FK | 34 | 44.4 | 50.8 | -6.4 | 37 |
| 12 | Alanyaspor | 34 | 34.6 | 44.1 | -9.5 | 37 |
| 13 | Kayserispor | 34 | 37.9 | 51.7 | -13.8 | 30 |
| 14 | Kasımpaşa | 34 | 29.2 | 43.8 | -14.6 | 35 |
| 15 | Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 33.2 | 48.0 | -14.8 | 30 |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 34 | 34.9 | 51.4 | -16.5 | 34 |
| 17 | Eyüpspor | 34 | 34.4 | 53.3 | -18.9 | 33 |
| 18 | Antalyaspor | 34 | 27.8 | 55.2 | -27.4 | 32 |