Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Fatih Karagümrük Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 52.5%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
El modelo se inclina hacia el {equipo}, con una modesta separación de otros resultados. Monitoree el movimiento del mercado antes del inicio.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "983350a649f1f9eab5778eb29c358d2fc8396c4f681e5bc6c0b4094a9e0f3673",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.76,
"away_win_prob": 0.1779,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2969,
"fair_odds_away": 5.62,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_home": 1.9,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.47,
"home_win_prob": 0.5251,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck"
},
"away_xg": 0.76,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck",
"confidence": 52.6,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck",
"edge": 0.1452,
"edge_gap": 0.2294,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3806,
"model_prob": 0.5258,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 17.8,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 52.6
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 2.55
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.55
},
{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 2.54
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"odd": 2.5
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.5
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.45
},
{
"affi_link": null,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"odd": 2.45
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.44
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.55,
"bookmaker_affi": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"display_market": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.63,
"market_odds": 2.46,
"model_odds": 1.9,
"overround": 6.9,
"prob_edge": 13.4,
"value_pct": 34.2,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 12,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 53.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 13,
"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 77.0,
"no_prob": 57.4,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 42.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.76,
"home_expected": 1.47,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 15.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck or Draw",
"prob": 82.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck or Genclerbirligi",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Genclerbirligi",
"prob": 47.5
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck or Draw",
"pick_prob": 82.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 17.8,
"draw_pct": 29.7,
"home_pct": 52.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.23,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 38.5,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 61.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.23,
"under_prob": 61.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"edge": 34.2,
"implied_prob": 39.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck Win",
"model_prob": 52.6,
"odds": 2.55
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 13.5,
"edge": 4.2,
"ev": 56.8,
"label": "2-0",
"probability": 11.6
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 15.8
}
},
"home_xg": 1.47,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
"best_odds": 2.68,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck",
"edge": 15.3,
"ev": 63.4,
"probability": 52.6
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1767,
"ev_yes": -0.2375,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1767,
"no_prob": 57.4,
"sort_key": 10309.03,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 42.6
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2146,
"ev_under": 0.1378,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1378,
"over_prob": 38.5,
"sort_key": 10124.02,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 61.5,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0542,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3787,
"max_ev": 0.0542,
"model_prob": 0.5258,
"side_label": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck",
"sort_key": 10048.78,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 827.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 15.8
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 997,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/997.webp",
"away_team_name": "Genclerbirligi",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1394715,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 3589,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3589.webp",
"home_team_name": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_id": 203,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/203.webp",
"league_name": "S\u00fcper Lig",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-03 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3463,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0532,
"ev": -0.2211,
"implied_prob": 0.3314,
"model_prob": 0.1778,
"p_final": 0.2782
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2971,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.066,
"implied_prob": 0.2899,
"model_prob": 0.2964,
"p_final": 0.2919
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3507,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0516,
"ev": 0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.3787,
"model_prob": 0.5258,
"p_final": 0.4303
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.79,
"edge_no": 0.1091,
"edge_yes": -0.1091,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1767,
"ev_yes": -0.2375,
"implied_no": 0.4649,
"implied_yes": 0.5351,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.04,
"best_under_odd": 1.85,
"edge_over": -0.0881,
"edge_under": 0.0881,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2146,
"ev_under": 0.1378,
"implied_over": 0.4731,
"implied_under": 0.5269,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.23,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1767,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.426,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5258,
"over_prob": 0.385,
"total_xg": 2.23,
"under_prob": 0.615,
"xg_diff": 0.71
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0516,
"ev": 0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.3787,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5258,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1091,
"ev": 0.1767,
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"model_prob": 0.574,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0881,
"ev": 0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.5269,
"model_prob": 0.615,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1394715,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1767,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1778,
"draw": 0.2964,
"home": 0.5258
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.5269,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.615,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.5269,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.615,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Genclerbirligi",
"home": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.101426,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1767,
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.574,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1394715,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-03T10:10:42.134092+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Süper Lig — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 34 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 77 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 74 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 69 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 60 |
| 5 | Başakşehir | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 57 |
| 6 | Göztepe | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55 |
| 7 | Samsunspor | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 51 |
| 8 | Rizespor | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 41 |
| 9 | Konyaspor | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 40 |
| 10 | Kocaelispor | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 37 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 34 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 37 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 37 |
| 13 | Kasımpaşa | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 35 |
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 34 |
| 15 | Eyüpspor | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 33 |
| 16 | Antalyaspor | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 32 |
| 17 | Kayserispor | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 30 |
| 18 | Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 30 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 34 | 77 | 30 | +47 | 77 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 34 | 77 | 37 | +40 | 74 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 34 | 61 | 39 | +22 | 69 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 34 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 60 |
| 5 | Başakşehir | 34 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 57 |
| 6 | Samsunspor | 34 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 51 |
| 7 | Rizespor | 34 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 41 |
| 8 | Konyaspor | 34 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 40 |
| 9 | Gaziantep FK | 34 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 37 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 34 | 42 | 32 | +10 | 55 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 34 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 37 |
| 12 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 34 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 34 |
| 13 | Eyüpspor | 34 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 33 |
| 14 | Kasımpaşa | 34 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | Antalyaspor | 34 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 31 | 54 | -23 | 30 |
| 17 | Kayserispor | 34 | 27 | 62 | -35 | 30 |
| 18 | Kocaelispor | 34 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 37 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 34 | 68.5 | 32.7 | +35.8 | 77 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 34 | 65.0 | 30.1 | +34.9 | 74 |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 34 | 62.6 | 36.8 | +25.8 | 60 |
| 4 | Başakşehir | 34 | 53.5 | 42.7 | +10.8 | 57 |
| 5 | Göztepe | 34 | 46.6 | 35.8 | +10.8 | 55 |
| 6 | Trabzonspor | 34 | 50.4 | 43.9 | +6.5 | 69 |
| 7 | Samsunspor | 34 | 43.1 | 38.9 | +4.2 | 51 |
| 8 | Rizespor | 34 | 45.3 | 45.5 | -0.2 | 41 |
| 9 | Kocaelispor | 34 | 30.1 | 33.2 | -3.1 | 37 |
| 10 | Konyaspor | 34 | 44.0 | 47.4 | -3.4 | 40 |
| 11 | Gaziantep FK | 34 | 44.4 | 50.8 | -6.4 | 37 |
| 12 | Alanyaspor | 34 | 34.6 | 44.1 | -9.5 | 37 |
| 13 | Kayserispor | 34 | 37.9 | 51.7 | -13.8 | 30 |
| 14 | Kasımpaşa | 34 | 29.2 | 43.8 | -14.6 | 35 |
| 15 | Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 33.2 | 48.0 | -14.8 | 30 |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 34 | 34.9 | 51.4 | -16.5 | 34 |
| 17 | Eyüpspor | 34 | 34.4 | 53.3 | -18.9 | 33 |
| 18 | Antalyaspor | 34 | 27.8 | 55.2 | -27.4 | 32 |
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