Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- VfL Osnabrück Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 46.6%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
El modelo se inclina hacia el {equipo}, con una modesta separación de otros resultados. Monitoree el movimiento del mercado antes del inicio.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correct
- 1X2 VfL Osnabrück VfL Osnabrück ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-4 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "53ec98e13d8566096eefd895b406a16e49c164b8983ffec868083d377db844c4",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.57,
"away_win_prob": 0.4665,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2826,
"fair_odds_away": 2.14,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.54,
"fair_odds_home": 3.99,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.1,
"home_win_prob": 0.2508,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck"
},
"away_xg": 1.57,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0256,
"edge_gap": 0.1847,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4927,
"model_prob": 0.4671,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 46.7,
"draw": 28.2,
"home": 25.1
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.91
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.91,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.03,
"market_odds": 1.91,
"model_odds": 2.14,
"overround": 6.3,
"prob_edge": -5.6,
"value_pct": -10.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 19,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 37,
"away_score_rate": 79.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 37,
"home_score_rate": 66.7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.57,
"home_expected": 1.1,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Stuttgart II or Draw",
"prob": 53.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Stuttgart II or VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"prob": 71.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"prob": 75.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"pick_prob": 75.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 46.7,
"draw_pct": 28.3,
"home_pct": 25.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.67,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 49.9,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.67,
"under_prob": 50.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 14.3,
"implied_prob": 24.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 28.3,
"odds": 4.04
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Stuttgart II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.44,
"gap_pp": -2.38,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 25.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.29,
"gap_pp": 4.94,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.27,
"gap_pp": -2.56,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 46.71
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.55,
"gap_pp": -14.65,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 49.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.45,
"gap_pp": 14.65,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 50.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.43,
"early": 3.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.44,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.04,
"early": 4.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.29,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.91,
"early": 1.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.27,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.27,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.45,
"early": 1.45,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.55,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.64,
"early": 2.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.45,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.0
}
},
"home_xg": 1.1,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2615,
"ev_under": 0.3226,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3226,
"over_prob": 49.9,
"sort_key": 10440.34,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 50.1,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.213,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.213,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10191.7,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0872,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4927,
"max_ev": -0.022,
"model_prob": 0.4671,
"side_label": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"sort_key": 1794.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.0
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1324,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1324.webp",
"away_team_name": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1394429,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 12867,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12867.webp",
"home_team_name": "Stuttgart II",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_id": 80,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
"league_name": "3. Liga",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-16 12:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.577,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0148,
"ev": -0.0872,
"implied_prob": 0.4927,
"model_prob": 0.4671,
"p_final": 0.4779
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1852,
"best_odd": 4.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.022,
"implied_prob": 0.2329,
"model_prob": 0.2824,
"p_final": 0.2421
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2893,
"best_odd": 3.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0069,
"ev": -0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.2744,
"model_prob": 0.2505,
"p_final": 0.2675
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.66,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"edge_no": 0.0947,
"edge_yes": -0.0947,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.213,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"implied_no": 0.3613,
"implied_yes": 0.6387,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.48,
"best_under_odd": 2.64,
"edge_over": -0.1366,
"edge_under": 0.1366,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2615,
"ev_under": 0.3226,
"implied_over": 0.6356,
"implied_under": 0.3644,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.67,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3226,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2824,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4671,
"over_prob": 0.499,
"total_xg": 2.67,
"under_prob": 0.501,
"xg_diff": 0.47
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0148,
"ev": -0.0872,
"implied_prob": 0.4927,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4671,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0947,
"ev": 0.213,
"implied_prob": 0.3613,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1366,
"ev": 0.3226,
"implied_prob": 0.3644,
"model_prob": 0.501,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1394429,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3226,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4671,
"draw": 0.2824,
"home": 0.2505
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.213,
"implied_prob": 0.3613,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.213,
"implied_prob": 0.3613,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"home": "Stuttgart II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.161623,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3226,
"implied_prob": 0.3644,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.501,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1394429,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T11:59:17.134709+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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3. Liga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VfL Osnabrück | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 80 |
| 2 | Energie Cottbus | 38 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 72 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 70 |
| 4 | MSV Duisburg | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 68 |
| 5 | Hansa Rostock | 38 | 18 | 13 | 7 | 67 |
| 6 | Verl | 38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 64 |
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 64 |
| 8 | TSV 1860 München | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 56 |
| 9 | SV Wehen | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 53 |
| 10 | Waldhof Mannheim | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 11 | FC Viktoria Köln | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 51 |
| 12 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 49 |
| 13 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 49 |
| 14 | Stuttgart II | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 46 |
| 15 | FC Saarbrücken | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 44 |
| 16 | Hoffenheim II | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 43 |
| 17 | Havelse | 38 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 35 |
| 18 | Erzgebirge Aue | 38 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 34 |
| 19 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 38 | 9 | 6 | 23 | 33 |
| 20 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 38 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Verl | 38 | 82 | 48 | +34 | 64 |
| 2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 38 | 78 | 66 | +12 | 70 |
| 3 | Alemannia Aachen | 38 | 76 | 57 | +19 | 64 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 38 | 74 | 49 | +25 | 67 |
| 5 | Energie Cottbus | 38 | 72 | 51 | +21 | 72 |
| 6 | VfL Osnabrück | 38 | 66 | 34 | +32 | 80 |
| 7 | MSV Duisburg | 38 | 66 | 49 | +17 | 68 |
| 8 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 38 | 65 | 56 | +9 | 49 |
| 9 | Hoffenheim II | 38 | 65 | 71 | -6 | 43 |
| 10 | Waldhof Mannheim | 38 | 59 | 72 | -13 | 52 |
| 11 | Stuttgart II | 38 | 57 | 69 | -12 | 46 |
| 12 | Havelse | 38 | 57 | 89 | -32 | 35 |
| 13 | SV Wehen | 38 | 54 | 52 | +2 | 53 |
| 14 | TSV 1860 München | 38 | 54 | 53 | +1 | 56 |
| 15 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 38 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 49 |
| 16 | FC Viktoria Köln | 38 | 51 | 53 | -2 | 51 |
| 17 | FC Saarbrücken | 38 | 51 | 57 | -6 | 44 |
| 18 | Erzgebirge Aue | 38 | 51 | 70 | -19 | 34 |
| 19 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 38 | 49 | 78 | -29 | 33 |
| 20 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 38 | 38 | 87 | -49 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hansa Rostock | 38 | 49.0 | 35.6 | +13.4 | 67 |
| 2 | Energie Cottbus | 38 | 46.5 | 33.7 | +12.8 | 72 |
| 3 | Verl | 38 | 44.0 | 31.6 | +12.4 | 64 |
| 4 | VfL Osnabrück | 38 | 41.6 | 30.4 | +11.2 | 80 |
| 5 | MSV Duisburg | 38 | 37.4 | 29.2 | +8.2 | 68 |
| 6 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 38 | 45.5 | 38.9 | +6.6 | 49 |
| 7 | TSV 1860 München | 38 | 45.8 | 42.6 | +3.2 | 56 |
| 8 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 38 | 41.9 | 38.8 | +3.1 | 70 |
| 9 | Waldhof Mannheim | 38 | 38.3 | 35.4 | +2.9 | 52 |
| 10 | SV Wehen | 38 | 36.8 | 35.3 | +1.5 | 53 |
| 11 | FC Saarbrücken | 38 | 41.1 | 40.6 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 12 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 38 | 40.8 | 40.6 | +0.2 | 49 |
| 13 | FC Viktoria Köln | 38 | 33.4 | 34.1 | -0.7 | 51 |
| 14 | Stuttgart II | 38 | 37.1 | 41.0 | -3.9 | 46 |
| 15 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 38 | 37.4 | 42.3 | -4.9 | 33 |
| 16 | Alemannia Aachen | 38 | 37.1 | 42.9 | -5.8 | 64 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim II | 38 | 44.5 | 51.1 | -6.6 | 43 |
| 18 | Erzgebirge Aue | 38 | 32.1 | 45.3 | -13.2 | 34 |
| 19 | Havelse | 38 | 31.9 | 50.5 | -18.6 | 35 |
| 20 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 38 | 32.9 | 55.1 | -22.2 | 21 |