Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Burgos Favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 62.3%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
Burgos lidera direccionalmente tanto la red de modelos como los precios de mercado.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Burgos Dibujar ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "8a2eb571dcbc6f5576056641a6a18302153ce87785164a7226e5d5e103ac65fb",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.85,
"away_win_prob": 0.1414,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2358,
"fair_odds_away": 7.07,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.24,
"fair_odds_home": 1.61,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.97,
"home_win_prob": 0.6228,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Almeria",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Burgos",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Almeria"
},
"away_xg": 0.85,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Burgos",
"confidence": 62.2,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Burgos",
"edge": 0.2498,
"edge_gap": 0.3859,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3723,
"model_prob": 0.6221,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 14.2,
"draw": 23.6,
"home": 62.2
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Burgos"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.6
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.6,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Burgos Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.69,
"market_odds": 2.6,
"model_odds": 1.61,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 23.7,
"value_pct": 61.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 38,
"away_score_rate": 57.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 15,
"home_failed_to_score": 13,
"home_played": 38,
"home_score_rate": 86.1,
"no_prob": 49.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 50.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 50.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.85,
"home_expected": 1.97,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Burgos or Draw",
"prob": 85.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Burgos or Almeria",
"prob": 76.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Almeria",
"prob": 37.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Burgos or Draw",
"pick_prob": 85.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 14.1,
"draw_pct": 23.6,
"home_pct": 62.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Burgos"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.82,
"away_avg_scored": 2.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 53.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 53.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.82,
"under_prob": 46.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 62.0,
"implied_prob": 38.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Burgos Win",
"model_prob": 62.3,
"odds": 2.6
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 13.0,
"edge": 3.9,
"ev": 50.4,
"label": "2-0",
"probability": 11.6
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.7
}
},
"home_xg": 1.97,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1508,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
"max_ev": 0.1508,
"model_prob": 0.6221,
"side_label": "Burgos",
"sort_key": 10285.72,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1288,
"ev_under": -0.1351,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1288,
"over_prob": 53.5,
"sort_key": 10115.92,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 46.5,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0127,
"ev_yes": -0.0892,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0127,
"no_prob": 49.4,
"sort_key": 5210.16,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 50.6
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 11.7
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 723,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/723.webp",
"away_team_name": "Almeria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1392183,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 9580,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9580.webp",
"home_team_name": "Burgos",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_id": 141,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/141.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-10 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3249,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0602,
"ev": -0.2102,
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"model_prob": 0.1417,
"p_final": 0.2668
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.271,
"best_odd": 3.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.0882,
"implied_prob": 0.3006,
"model_prob": 0.2362,
"p_final": 0.2832
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2814,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0703,
"ev": 0.1508,
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
"model_prob": 0.6221,
"p_final": 0.4426
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"edge_no": 0.0282,
"edge_yes": -0.0282,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0127,
"ev_yes": -0.0892,
"implied_no": 0.4658,
"implied_yes": 0.5342,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.11,
"best_under_odd": 1.86,
"edge_over": 0.0669,
"edge_under": -0.0669,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1288,
"ev_under": -0.1351,
"implied_over": 0.4681,
"implied_under": 0.5319,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.82,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1508,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.506,
"draw_prob": 0.2362,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6221,
"over_prob": 0.535,
"total_xg": 2.82,
"under_prob": 0.465,
"xg_diff": 1.12
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0703,
"ev": 0.1508,
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6221,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Burgos"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0282,
"ev": 0.0127,
"implied_prob": 0.4658,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0669,
"ev": 0.1288,
"implied_prob": 0.4681,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1392183,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1508,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1417,
"draw": 0.2362,
"home": 0.6221
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1288,
"implied_prob": 0.4681,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.535,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1288,
"implied_prob": 0.4681,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.535,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Almeria",
"home": "Burgos"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.112575,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1508,
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6221,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Burgos",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1392183,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T16:00:59.728391+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda División — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Santander | 42 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 82 |
| 2 | Deportivo La Coruna | 42 | 22 | 11 | 9 | 77 |
| 3 | Almeria | 42 | 22 | 8 | 12 | 74 |
| 4 | Malaga | 42 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 73 |
| 5 | Las Palmas | 42 | 20 | 13 | 9 | 73 |
| 6 | Castellón | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 72 |
| 7 | Burgos | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 72 |
| 8 | Eibar | 42 | 19 | 10 | 13 | 67 |
| 9 | Cordoba | 42 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 61 |
| 10 | Sporting Gijon | 42 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 61 |
| 11 | AD Ceuta FC | 42 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 61 |
| 12 | Albacete | 42 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 59 |
| 13 | FC Andorra | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 58 |
| 14 | Granada CF | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 48 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad II | 42 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 47 |
| 16 | Leganes | 42 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 46 |
| 17 | Valladolid | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 46 |
| 18 | Cadiz | 42 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 43 |
| 19 | Mirandes | 42 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 40 |
| 20 | Huesca | 42 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 38 |
| 21 | Cultural Leonesa | 42 | 9 | 10 | 23 | 37 |
| 22 | Zaragoza | 42 | 8 | 12 | 22 | 36 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Santander | 42 | 90 | 61 | +29 | 82 |
| 2 | Almeria | 42 | 81 | 63 | +18 | 74 |
| 3 | Malaga | 42 | 75 | 52 | +23 | 73 |
| 4 | Castellón | 42 | 70 | 51 | +19 | 72 |
| 5 | Deportivo La Coruna | 42 | 65 | 44 | +21 | 77 |
| 6 | FC Andorra | 42 | 62 | 54 | +8 | 58 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 42 | 60 | 54 | +6 | 61 |
| 8 | Las Palmas | 42 | 57 | 40 | +17 | 73 |
| 9 | Cordoba | 42 | 57 | 61 | -4 | 61 |
| 10 | Albacete | 42 | 56 | 55 | +1 | 59 |
| 11 | Eibar | 42 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 67 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad II | 42 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | AD Ceuta FC | 42 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 61 |
| 14 | Granada CF | 42 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 48 |
| 15 | Burgos | 42 | 48 | 33 | +15 | 72 |
| 16 | Mirandes | 42 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 40 |
| 17 | Valladolid | 42 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 46 |
| 18 | Leganes | 42 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 46 |
| 19 | Cadiz | 42 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 43 |
| 20 | Huesca | 42 | 41 | 63 | -22 | 38 |
| 21 | Cultural Leonesa | 42 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 37 |
| 22 | Zaragoza | 42 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 36 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 42 | 41.1 | 29.0 | +12.1 | 72 |
| 2 | Valladolid | 42 | 34.2 | 23.6 | +10.6 | 46 |
| 3 | Cordoba | 42 | 39.1 | 32.6 | +6.5 | 61 |
| 4 | Eibar | 42 | 38.5 | 32.4 | +6.1 | 67 |
| 5 | Racing Santander | 42 | 36.6 | 32.0 | +4.6 | 82 |
| 6 | Burgos | 42 | 32.1 | 27.9 | +4.2 | 72 |
| 7 | Malaga | 42 | 36.9 | 33.4 | +3.5 | 73 |
| 8 | Granada CF | 42 | 32.0 | 29.2 | +2.8 | 48 |
| 9 | Las Palmas | 42 | 22.9 | 20.6 | +2.3 | 73 |
| 10 | Deportivo La Coruna | 42 | 30.2 | 28.3 | +1.9 | 77 |
| 11 | Albacete | 42 | 35.2 | 33.7 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 12 | Sporting Gijon | 42 | 30.8 | 29.4 | +1.4 | 61 |
| 13 | Almeria | 42 | 32.7 | 31.4 | +1.3 | 74 |
| 14 | Zaragoza | 42 | 30.6 | 30.5 | +0.1 | 36 |
| 15 | Leganes | 42 | 34.1 | 35.4 | -1.3 | 46 |
| 16 | FC Andorra | 42 | 31.8 | 33.5 | -1.7 | 58 |
| 17 | Huesca | 42 | 27.3 | 29.6 | -2.3 | 38 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad II | 42 | 30.7 | 38.6 | -7.9 | 47 |
| 19 | AD Ceuta FC | 42 | 35.3 | 44.9 | -9.6 | 61 |
| 20 | Mirandes | 42 | 28.2 | 38.8 | -10.6 | 40 |
| 21 | Cadiz | 42 | 26.9 | 39.4 | -12.5 | 43 |
| 22 | Cultural Leonesa | 42 | 29.1 | 42.3 | -13.2 | 37 |