Auditoría de predicción: WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz II Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

May 08, 2026 - 16:00
2 0.63
0 1.41
xG Accuracy: 47%

AI correctly predicted the WSPG Wels win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Grado de predicción A

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
  • 1X2 WSPG Wels WSPG Wels ✔ Correcto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.04, 2 goals)
  • Sturm Graz II attacking xG significantly stronger (1.41 vs 0.63)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (WSPG Wels win 2–0).

Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse

Cronología de predicción

Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.

  1. May 08, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · WSPG Wels 0.63 — Sturm Graz II 1.41
  2. May 08, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result WSPG Wels win · 2–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Instantánea histórica

Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.

Veredicto histórico: Observe
Decisión histórica No Primary Bet
Resultado Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidencia ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 05:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1680724

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 1.79
CLV Pending
Final Result WSPG Wels win · WSPG Wels 2–0 Sturm Graz II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 56.0%
  • Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample

Revisar preguntas frecuentes

¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.

Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "c20efaefe0ac4d983978e003e3d6b54e42428d0f740bd4d646dbef41f3d59aee",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.41,
      "away_win_prob": null,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": null,
      "fair_odds_away": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": null,
      "fair_odds_home": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 0.63,
      "home_win_prob": null,
      "prediction_confidence": "none"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : WSPG Wels or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "WSPG Wels"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.41,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "WSPG Wels",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0081,
        "edge_gap": 0.0,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4581,
        "model_prob": 0.45,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 10.0,
          "draw": 45.0,
          "home": 45.0
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": null
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 10,
        "away_played": 27,
        "away_score_rate": 63.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 4,
        "home_failed_to_score": 9,
        "home_played": 27,
        "home_score_rate": 66.7,
        "no_prob": 58.0,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 58.0,
        "source": "stats",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 42.0
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.25,
        "home_expected": 1.55,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 11.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 7.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 7.4
          }
        ],
        "source": "avg"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "WSPG Wels or Draw",
            "prob": 90.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "WSPG Wels or Sturm Graz II",
            "prob": 55.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Sturm Graz II",
            "prob": 55.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "WSPG Wels or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 90.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 10.0,
        "draw_pct": 45.0,
        "home_pct": 45.0,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "WSPG Wels"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.8,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "over_prob": 53.1,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 53.1,
        "source": "avg",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 2.8,
        "under_prob": 46.9
      },
      "prob_source": null,
      "value_bet_enhanced": null
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 11.8
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 0.63,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.3108,
        "ev_yes": -0.3196,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.3108,
        "no_prob": 58.0,
        "sort_key": 10429.72,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 42.0
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0546,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4581,
        "max_ev": 0.1041,
        "model_prob": 0.45,
        "side_label": "WSPG Wels",
        "sort_key": 5283.28,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0761,
        "ev_under": -0.0057,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.0057,
        "over_prob": 53.1,
        "sort_key": 1798.575,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "under_prob": 46.9,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 815.4,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 11.8
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 8251,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8251.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Sturm Graz II",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
      "country_name": "Austria",
      "fixture_id": 1391852,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 22213,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22213.webp",
      "home_team_name": "WSPG Wels",
      "league_country": "Austria",
      "league_id": 219,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/219.webp",
      "league_name": "Segunda Liga de Austria",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-08 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2174,
            "best_odd": 3.36,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0399,
            "ev": -0.1812,
            "implied_prob": 0.2836,
            "model_prob": 0.1,
            "p_final": 0.2437
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2137,
            "best_odd": 3.69,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.041,
            "ev": 0.1041,
            "implied_prob": 0.2582,
            "model_prob": 0.45,
            "p_final": 0.2992
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4445,
            "best_odd": 2.08,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0036,
            "ev": -0.0546,
            "implied_prob": 0.4581,
            "model_prob": 0.45,
            "p_final": 0.4545
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.26,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
          "edge_no": 0.166,
          "edge_yes": -0.166,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.3108,
          "ev_yes": -0.3196,
          "implied_no": 0.414,
          "implied_yes": 0.586,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.74,
          "best_under_odd": 2.12,
          "edge_over": -0.0147,
          "edge_under": 0.0147,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0761,
          "ev_under": -0.0057,
          "implied_over": 0.5457,
          "implied_under": 0.4543,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.04,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3108,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.42,
          "draw_prob": 0.45,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.45,
          "over_prob": 0.531,
          "total_xg": 2.04,
          "under_prob": 0.469,
          "xg_diff": 0.78
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0036,
          "ev": -0.0546,
          "implied_prob": 0.4581,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.45,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "WSPG Wels"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.166,
          "ev": 0.3108,
          "implied_prob": 0.414,
          "model_prob": 0.58,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0147,
          "ev": -0.0057,
          "implied_prob": 0.4543,
          "model_prob": 0.469,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1391852,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3108,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1,
        "draw": 0.45,
        "home": 0.45
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1041,
        "implied_prob": 0.2582,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.45,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "draw",
        "side_label": "draw",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1041,
          "implied_prob": 0.2582,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.45,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Sturm Graz II",
        "home": "WSPG Wels"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.180264,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3108,
        "implied_prob": 0.414,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.58,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1391852,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-08T15:59:13.699348+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Obtén predicciones premium para WSPG Wels & Sturm Graz II!

Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.

Suscríbete ahora
Volver a Predicciones
Segunda Liga de Austria Segunda Liga de Austria — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Austria Lustenau 28 16 6 6 54
2 SKN St. Pölten 28 16 5 7 53
3 Admira Wacker 28 12 12 4 48
4 Floridsdorfer AC 28 14 6 8 48
5 FC Liefering 28 13 8 7 47
6 SKU Amstetten 28 11 11 6 44
7 First Vienna 28 11 7 10 40
8 Austria Viena (Am) 28 11 6 11 39
9 Austria Salzburg 28 9 10 9 37
10 WSPG Wels 28 9 6 13 33
11 Rapid Viena II 28 9 5 14 32
12 Austria Klagenfurt 28 9 6 13 30
13 SV Kapfenberg 28 8 4 16 28
14 Sturm Graz II 28 5 6 17 21
15 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 28 3 10 15 16
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Admira Wacker 28 50 29 +21 48
2 FC Liefering 28 47 41 +6 47
3 SKN St. Pölten 28 44 26 +18 53
4 Floridsdorfer AC 28 42 18 +24 48
5 SKU Amstetten 28 41 34 +7 44
6 Austria Lustenau 28 40 26 +14 54
7 Austria Salzburg 28 36 37 -1 37
8 WSPG Wels 28 36 37 -1 33
9 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 28 36 57 -21 16
10 Austria Viena (Am) 28 33 40 -7 39
11 Austria Klagenfurt 28 33 44 -11 30
12 Rapid Viena II 28 33 45 -12 32
13 SV Kapfenberg 28 31 53 -22 28
14 First Vienna 28 30 25 +5 40
15 Sturm Graz II 28 25 45 -20 21
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 Austria Lustenau 28 1.4 0.6 +0.8 54
2 FC Liefering 28 0.6 1.4 -0.8 47
3 SKN St. Pölten 28 — — — 53
4 Admira Wacker 28 — — — 48
5 Floridsdorfer AC 28 — — — 48
6 SKU Amstetten 28 — — — 44
7 First Vienna 28 — — — 40
8 Austria Viena (Am) 28 — — — 39
9 Austria Salzburg 28 — — — 37
10 WSPG Wels 28 — — — 33
11 Rapid Viena II 28 — — — 32
12 Austria Klagenfurt 28 — — — 30
13 SV Kapfenberg 28 — — — 28
14 Sturm Graz II 28 — — — 21
15 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 28 — — — 16