AI correctly predicted the Karpaty win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Karpaty Karpaty ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Karpaty attacking xG significantly stronger (1.66 vs 1.08)
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Karpaty win 2–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
May 23, 2026 · 19:54 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Karpaty 1.66 — Veres Rivne 1.08
-
May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Karpaty win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Karpaty win · Karpaty 2–0 Veres Rivne
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c9297f44ec15b5f53334d6094a14a3ba8a7ef5d19f298280384e94c736c3fafc",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.08,
"away_win_prob": 0.2321,
"btts_no_prob": 0.45,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.55,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2739,
"fair_odds_away": 4.31,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.65,
"fair_odds_home": 2.02,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.66,
"home_win_prob": 0.494,
"over_25_prob": 0.516,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.484
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Karpaty or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Karpaty"
},
"away_xg": 1.08,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Karpaty",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0037,
"edge_gap": 0.2208,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4983,
"model_prob": 0.4945,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 23.2,
"draw": 27.4,
"home": 49.5
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.86
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.86,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Karpaty Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.01,
"market_odds": 1.86,
"model_odds": 2.02,
"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": -4.3,
"value_pct": -7.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 14,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 66.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 13,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 81.0,
"no_prob": 45.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 55.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 55.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.08,
"home_expected": 1.66,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Karpaty or Draw",
"prob": 76.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Karpaty or Veres Rivne",
"prob": 72.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Veres Rivne",
"prob": 50.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Karpaty or Draw",
"pick_prob": 76.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 23.2,
"draw_pct": 27.4,
"home_pct": 49.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Karpaty"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.74,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 51.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.74,
"under_prob": 48.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -7.9,
"implied_prob": 53.8,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Karpaty Win",
"model_prob": 49.5,
"odds": 1.86
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Veres Rivne",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Karpaty",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.83,
"gap_pp": -0.37,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 49.45
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.18,
"gap_pp": 0.19,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.0,
"gap_pp": 0.18,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 23.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.98,
"gap_pp": 4.62,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 51.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.02,
"gap_pp": -4.62,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 48.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.86,
"early": 1.86,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.83,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.41,
"early": 3.41,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.18,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.03,
"early": 4.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.02,
"early": 2.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.98,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.79,
"early": 1.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.02,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.6
}
},
"home_xg": 1.66,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0423,
"ev_under": -0.1046,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0423,
"over_prob": 51.6,
"sort_key": 10038.07,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 48.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1315,
"ev_yes": 0.0175,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0175,
"no_prob": 45.0,
"sort_key": 5214.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 55.0
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0774,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4983,
"max_ev": -0.0713,
"model_prob": 0.4945,
"side_label": "Karpaty",
"sort_key": 1782.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 814.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.6
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 6501,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6501.webp",
"away_team_name": "Veres Rivne",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1391620,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 3617,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3617.webp",
"home_team_name": "Karpaty",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Ucrania",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1995,
"best_odd": 4.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0004,
"ev": -0.0718,
"implied_prob": 0.23,
"model_prob": 0.2318,
"p_final": 0.2303
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2991,
"best_odd": 3.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0006,
"ev": -0.0713,
"implied_prob": 0.2718,
"model_prob": 0.2737,
"p_final": 0.2723
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5966,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0022,
"ev": -0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4983,
"model_prob": 0.4945,
"p_final": 0.496
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.93,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"edge_no": -0.0395,
"edge_yes": 0.0395,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1315,
"ev_yes": 0.0175,
"implied_no": 0.4895,
"implied_yes": 0.5105,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.02,
"best_under_odd": 1.85,
"edge_over": 0.0368,
"edge_under": -0.0368,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0423,
"ev_under": -0.1046,
"implied_over": 0.4792,
"implied_under": 0.5208,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.74,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0423,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.55,
"draw_prob": 0.2737,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4945,
"over_prob": 0.516,
"total_xg": 2.74,
"under_prob": 0.484,
"xg_diff": 0.58
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0423,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.516,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0022,
"ev": -0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4983,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4945,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Karpaty"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0395,
"ev": 0.0175,
"implied_prob": 0.5105,
"model_prob": 0.55,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0368,
"ev": 0.0423,
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1391620,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0423,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2318,
"draw": 0.2737,
"home": 0.4945
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Veres Rivne",
"home": "Karpaty"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1391620,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T19:54:26.209252+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Karpaty & Veres Rivne!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Liga Premier de Ucrania — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 72 |
| 2 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 60 |
| 3 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 59 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 57 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 51 |
| 6 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 7 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 9 | Karpaty | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 41 |
| 10 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 13 | Kudrivka | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 14 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 30 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 17 |
| 16 | SK Poltava | 30 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 71 | 21 | +50 | 72 |
| 2 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 66 | 36 | +30 | 57 |
| 3 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 53 | 46 | +7 | 48 |
| 4 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 30 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 59 |
| 5 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 46 |
| 6 | Karpaty | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 41 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 39 | 17 | +22 | 60 |
| 8 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 36 | 19 | +17 | 51 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Kudrivka | 30 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 28 |
| 11 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 49 |
| 12 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 31 |
| 13 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 31 |
| 14 | Oleksandria | 30 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
| 15 | SK Poltava | 30 | 23 | 74 | -51 | 13 |
| 16 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 30.7 | 10.1 | +20.6 | 57 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 29.8 | 9.8 | +20.0 | 72 |
| 3 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 30 | 36.9 | 18.0 | +18.9 | 59 |
| 4 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 28.4 | 12.4 | +16.0 | 60 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 22.0 | 12.7 | +9.3 | 51 |
| 6 | Karpaty | 30 | 24.4 | 20.0 | +4.4 | 41 |
| 7 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 22.6 | 22.2 | +0.4 | 49 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 22.1 | 22.9 | -0.8 | 46 |
| 9 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 12.6 | 16.5 | -3.9 | 31 |
| 10 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 17.2 | 23.2 | -6.0 | 31 |
| 11 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 21.4 | 27.8 | -6.4 | 48 |
| 12 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 16.6 | 23.8 | -7.2 | 21 |
| 13 | Kudrivka | 30 | 17.4 | 29.0 | -11.6 | 28 |
| 14 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 18.9 | 32.2 | -13.3 | 32 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 30 | 10.5 | 25.0 | -14.5 | 17 |
| 16 | SK Poltava | 30 | 10.1 | 36.0 | -25.9 | 13 |
