Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Barcelona Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 48.3%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
El modelo se inclina hacia el {equipo}, con una modesta separación de otros resultados. Monitoree el movimiento del mercado antes del inicio.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Barcelona Alaves ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f28cf29b90a47b082bad8537fd673d4741c8a304316144ce06706d72f423f83f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.7,
"away_win_prob": 0.4831,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2689,
"fair_odds_away": 2.07,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.72,
"fair_odds_home": 4.03,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.17,
"home_win_prob": 0.248,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Barcelona",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Barcelona",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Barcelona"
},
"away_xg": 1.7,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Barcelona",
"confidence": 48.3,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Barcelona",
"edge": 0.018,
"edge_gap": 0.2143,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.465,
"model_prob": 0.4831,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 48.3,
"draw": 26.9,
"home": 24.8
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Barcelona"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.09
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.09,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Barcelona Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.15,
"market_odds": 2.09,
"model_odds": 2.07,
"overround": 2.9,
"prob_edge": 0.5,
"value_pct": 1.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 15,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 35,
"away_score_rate": 81.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 35,
"home_score_rate": 69.0,
"no_prob": 42.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 57.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.7,
"home_expected": 1.17,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Alaves or Draw",
"prob": 51.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Alaves or Barcelona",
"prob": 73.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Barcelona",
"prob": 75.2
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Barcelona",
"pick_prob": 75.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 48.3,
"draw_pct": 26.9,
"home_pct": 24.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Barcelona"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.87,
"away_avg_scored": 2.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 54.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 54.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.87,
"under_prob": 45.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 6.8,
"implied_prob": 25.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 26.9,
"odds": 3.97
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.3
}
},
"home_xg": 1.17,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1357,
"ev_under": 0.1551,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1551,
"over_prob": 54.7,
"sort_key": 10289.59,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 45.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1394,
"ev_yes": -0.1157,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1394,
"no_prob": 42.2,
"sort_key": 10125.46,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 57.8
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0116,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.465,
"max_ev": -0.0005,
"model_prob": 0.4831,
"side_label": "Barcelona",
"sort_key": 2199.96,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.3
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 529,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/529.webp",
"away_team_name": "Barcelona",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1391169,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 542,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/542.webp",
"home_team_name": "Alaves",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_id": 140,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
"league_name": "La Liga",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-13 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4378,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0116,
"implied_prob": 0.465,
"model_prob": 0.4831,
"p_final": 0.4729
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2892,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0005,
"implied_prob": 0.2448,
"model_prob": 0.2688,
"p_final": 0.2518
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2811,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.2901,
"model_prob": 0.2481,
"p_final": 0.2783
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"edge_no": 0.0562,
"edge_yes": -0.0562,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1394,
"ev_yes": -0.1157,
"implied_no": 0.3658,
"implied_yes": 0.6342,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.58,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"edge_over": -0.0648,
"edge_under": 0.0648,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1357,
"ev_under": 0.1551,
"implied_over": 0.6118,
"implied_under": 0.3882,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.87,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1551,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.578,
"draw_prob": 0.2688,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4831,
"over_prob": 0.547,
"total_xg": 2.87,
"under_prob": 0.453,
"xg_diff": 0.53
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0116,
"implied_prob": 0.465,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4831,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Barcelona"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0562,
"ev": 0.1394,
"implied_prob": 0.3658,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0648,
"ev": 0.1551,
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"model_prob": 0.453,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1391169,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1551,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4831,
"draw": 0.2688,
"home": 0.2481
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1394,
"implied_prob": 0.3658,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.422,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1394,
"implied_prob": 0.3658,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.422,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Barcelona",
"home": "Alaves"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.066747,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1551,
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.453,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1391169,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-13T15:59:05.454335+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Alaves & Barcelona!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
La Liga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 69 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 60 |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 54 |
| 7 | Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 51 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 50 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 49 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 46 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 46 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 45 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 43 |
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 43 |
| 15 | Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 43 |
| 16 | Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 |
| 17 | Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 |
| 19 | Girona | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 41 |
| 20 | Oviedo | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 29 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 95 | 36 | +59 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 72 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 62 | 44 | +18 | 69 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 60 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 46 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 54 |
| 8 | Elche | 38 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Mallorca | 38 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 42 |
| 10 | Levante | 38 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 42 |
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 49 |
| 12 | Sevilla | 38 | 46 | 60 | -14 | 43 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 38 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 42 |
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 46 |
| 16 | Athletic Club | 38 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 45 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 50 |
| 18 | Girona | 38 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 41 |
| 19 | Getafe | 38 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 51 |
| 20 | Oviedo | 38 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 29 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 86.7 | 45.6 | +41.1 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 74.8 | 40.1 | +34.7 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 57.8 | 45.0 | +12.8 | 72 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 58.0 | 48.5 | +9.5 | 69 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 54.7 | 45.5 | +9.2 | 60 |
| 6 | Athletic Club | 38 | 49.4 | 40.5 | +8.9 | 45 |
| 7 | Valencia | 38 | 49.3 | 46.3 | +3.0 | 49 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 50.1 | 48.0 | +2.1 | 50 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 49.7 | 49.4 | +0.3 | 54 |
| 10 | Alaves | 38 | 46.1 | 47.4 | -1.3 | 43 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 38 | 45.5 | 49.1 | -3.6 | 42 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 38 | 48.4 | 53.8 | -5.4 | 46 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 49.0 | 54.7 | -5.7 | 46 |
| 14 | Levante | 38 | 51.5 | 59.3 | -7.8 | 42 |
| 15 | Girona | 38 | 45.6 | 55.4 | -9.8 | 41 |
| 16 | Getafe | 38 | 30.2 | 40.8 | -10.6 | 51 |
| 17 | Sevilla | 38 | 38.0 | 54.0 | -16.0 | 43 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 38 | 43.1 | 61.9 | -18.8 | 42 |
| 19 | Elche | 38 | 40.5 | 60.1 | -19.6 | 43 |
| 20 | Oviedo | 38 | 34.3 | 57.3 | -23.0 | 29 |