Predicciones / Fútbol / Germany. 2. Bundesliga / Dynamo Dresden vs Holstein Kiel

Dynamo Dresden vs Holstein Kiel Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

May 17, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.57
1 0.92
xG Accuracy: 87%

Evaluación de pronóstico

Pronóstico confiable

Favorito
Dynamo Dresden Ligeramente favorito
Probabilidad del modelo
51.0%
Acuerdo de mercado
Validación
Pendiente

Resumen:

El modelo se inclina hacia el {equipo}, con una modesta separación de otros resultados. Monitoree el movimiento del mercado antes del inicio.

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden ✔ Correct
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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  "content_hash": "866f7c69ad3d1e40805d6bedbe6b44d2501f4484777393e4a5f859e7fb239695",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
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      "away_win_prob": 0.2053,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2846,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.87,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.51,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.96,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.57,
      "home_win_prob": 0.51,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Holstein Kiel",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Holstein Kiel"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.92,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Dynamo Dresden",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0452,
        "edge_gap": 0.2252,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5552,
        "model_prob": 0.51,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
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          "draw": 28.5,
          "home": 51.0
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.72
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
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        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Dynamo Dresden Win",
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        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.8,
        "market_odds": 1.72,
        "model_odds": 1.96,
        "overround": 4.7,
        "prob_edge": -7.1,
        "value_pct": -12.2,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 5,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 60.1,
        "home_clean_sheet": 6,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 79.2,
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        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 50.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
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        "home_expected": 1.57,
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          },
          {
            "away": 1,
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          },
          {
            "away": 0,
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          },
          {
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            "away": 0,
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          },
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          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
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          }
        ],
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        "pick_prob": 79.5
      },
      "match_winner": {
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        "draw_pct": 28.5,
        "home_pct": 51.0,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Dynamo Dresden"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.49,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "over_prob": 45.4,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 54.6,
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        "strong_pick": true,
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        "under_prob": 54.6
      },
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        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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        "is_value": true,
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        "model_prob": 28.5,
        "odds": 3.96
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Holstein Kiel",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Dynamo Dresden",
      "largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.06,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 55.52,
          "gap_pp": -4.52,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 51.0
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 24.12,
          "gap_pp": 4.36,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 28.48
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 20.36,
          "gap_pp": 0.16,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 20.52
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 60.95,
          "gap_pp": -15.55,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 45.4
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 39.05,
          "gap_pp": 15.55,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 54.6
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
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          "closing": 1.72,
          "early": 1.72,
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          "implied_delta_pp": -0.06,
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          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.96,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.04,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.02,
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        },
        {
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.45,
          "early": 2.45,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 39.05,
          "kind": "ou_u"
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      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 15.6,
        "kind": "ou_u"
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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        "label": "1-0",
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    },
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    "homepage_pick": null,
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_under": 0.3923,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.3923,
        "over_prob": 45.4,
        "sort_key": 10503.07,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 54.6,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.2954,
        "ev_yes": -0.2374,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
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        "no_prob": 50.8,
        "sort_key": 10265.86,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 49.2
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0885,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5552,
        "max_ev": 0.0034,
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        "side_label": "Dynamo Dresden",
        "sort_key": 5202.72,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 819.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-0",
        "top_prob": 13.0
      }
    ],
    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 191,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/191.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Holstein Kiel",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1388919,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 183,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/183.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Dynamo Dresden",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 79,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
      "league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-17 13:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1995,
            "best_odd": 4.69,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0003,
            "ev": -0.0435,
            "implied_prob": 0.2036,
            "model_prob": 0.2052,
            "p_final": 0.2039
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2804,
            "best_odd": 3.96,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0122,
            "ev": 0.0034,
            "implied_prob": 0.2412,
            "model_prob": 0.2848,
            "p_final": 0.2534
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5593,
            "best_odd": 1.72,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0253,
            "ev": -0.0885,
            "implied_prob": 0.5552,
            "model_prob": 0.51,
            "p_final": 0.5299
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.55,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.55,
          "edge_no": 0.1173,
          "edge_yes": -0.1173,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.2954,
          "ev_yes": -0.2374,
          "implied_no": 0.3907,
          "implied_yes": 0.6093,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.57,
          "best_under_odd": 2.55,
          "edge_over": -0.1568,
          "edge_under": 0.1568,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2872,
          "ev_under": 0.3923,
          "implied_over": 0.6108,
          "implied_under": 0.3892,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.49,
      "variance_flag": true
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3923,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.492,
          "draw_prob": 0.2848,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.51,
          "over_prob": 0.454,
          "total_xg": 2.49,
          "under_prob": 0.546,
          "xg_diff": 0.65
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0253,
          "ev": -0.0885,
          "implied_prob": 0.5552,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.51,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Dynamo Dresden"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1173,
          "ev": 0.2954,
          "implied_prob": 0.3907,
          "model_prob": 0.508,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1568,
          "ev": 0.3923,
          "implied_prob": 0.3892,
          "model_prob": 0.546,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1388919,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3923,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2052,
        "draw": 0.2848,
        "home": 0.51
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "variance_medium"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2954,
        "implied_prob": 0.3907,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.508,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.2954,
          "implied_prob": 0.3907,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.508,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Holstein Kiel",
        "home": "Dynamo Dresden"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.188492,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3923,
        "implied_prob": 0.3892,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.546,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1388919,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T13:29:15.749674+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Volver a Predicciones
2. Bundesliga 2. BundesligaClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 FC Schalke 04 34 21 7 6 70
2 SV Elversberg 34 18 8 8 62
3 SC Paderborn 07 34 18 8 8 62
4 Hannover 96 34 16 12 6 60
5 SV Darmstadt 98 34 13 13 8 52
6 1. FC Kaiserslautern 34 16 4 14 52
7 Hertha BSC 34 14 9 11 51
8 1. FC Nürnberg 34 12 10 12 46
9 VfL Bochum 34 11 11 12 44
10 Karlsruher SC 34 12 8 14 44
11 Dynamo Dresden 34 11 8 15 41
12 Holstein Kiel 34 11 8 15 41
13 Arminia Bielefeld 34 10 9 15 39
14 1. FC Magdeburg 34 12 3 19 39
15 Eintracht Braunschweig 34 10 7 17 37
16 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34 10 7 17 37
17 Fortuna Düsseldorf 34 11 4 19 37
18 Preußen Münster 34 6 12 16 30
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 SV Elversberg 34 64 39 +25 62
2 Hannover 96 34 60 44 +16 60
3 SC Paderborn 07 34 59 45 +14 62
4 SV Darmstadt 98 34 57 45 +12 52
5 Dynamo Dresden 34 54 53 +1 41
6 Arminia Bielefeld 34 53 51 +2 39
7 Karlsruher SC 34 53 64 -11 44
8 1. FC Kaiserslautern 34 52 47 +5 52
9 1. FC Magdeburg 34 52 58 -6 39
10 FC Schalke 04 34 50 31 +19 70
11 VfL Bochum 34 49 47 +2 44
12 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34 49 68 -19 37
13 Hertha BSC 34 47 44 +3 51
14 1. FC Nürnberg 34 47 45 +2 46
15 Holstein Kiel 34 44 48 -4 41
16 Preußen Münster 34 38 61 -23 30
17 Eintracht Braunschweig 34 36 54 -18 37
18 Fortuna Düsseldorf 34 33 53 -20 37
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 FC Schalke 04 34 51.0 30.4 +20.6 70
2 SC Paderborn 07 34 58.1 38.1 +20.0 62
3 Hannover 96 34 55.4 38.5 +16.9 60
4 SV Elversberg 34 51.6 37.3 +14.3 62
5 1. FC Magdeburg 34 52.6 45.9 +6.7 39
6 Arminia Bielefeld 34 50.3 46.2 +4.1 39
7 VfL Bochum 34 51.9 48.6 +3.3 44
8 1. FC Kaiserslautern 34 46.2 44.1 +2.1 52
9 1. FC Nürnberg 34 46.2 44.2 +2.0 46
10 SV Darmstadt 98 34 52.1 51.8 +0.3 52
11 Dynamo Dresden 34 43.2 43.9 -0.7 41
12 Hertha BSC 34 44.7 51.4 -6.7 51
13 Fortuna Düsseldorf 34 40.3 49.4 -9.1 37
14 Eintracht Braunschweig 34 36.7 48.1 -11.4 37
15 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34 39.4 51.4 -12.0 37
16 Holstein Kiel 34 41.0 53.1 -12.1 41
17 Preußen Münster 34 36.7 55.9 -19.2 30
18 Karlsruher SC 34 42.5 61.9 -19.4 44