Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- SV Elversberg Favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 72.3%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
SV Elversberg lidera direccionalmente tanto la red de modelos como los precios de mercado.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1 3-0 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b891635c5413bf491548140b4d4f07fb8a089af9d7eb0b6d8701cee99478e315",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.78,
"away_win_prob": 0.0926,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.1847,
"fair_odds_away": 10.79,
"fair_odds_draw": 5.42,
"fair_odds_home": 1.38,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.4,
"home_win_prob": 0.7227,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : SV Elversberg or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "SV Elversberg"
},
"away_xg": 0.78,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "SV Elversberg",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0755,
"edge_gap": 0.5392,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.7989,
"model_prob": 0.7233,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 9.3,
"draw": 18.4,
"home": 72.3
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.19
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.19,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "SV Elversberg Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.25,
"market_odds": 1.19,
"model_odds": 1.38,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": -11.6,
"value_pct": -13.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 33,
"away_score_rate": 54.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 33,
"home_score_rate": 90.9,
"no_prob": 49.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 50.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 50.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.78,
"home_expected": 2.4,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 12.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "SV Elversberg or Draw",
"prob": 90.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "SV Elversberg or Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"prob": 81.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"prob": 27.8
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "SV Elversberg or Draw",
"pick_prob": 90.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 9.3,
"draw_pct": 18.5,
"home_pct": 72.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "SV Elversberg"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.18,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 61.6,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 61.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.18,
"under_prob": 38.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 38.4,
"implied_prob": 13.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 18.5,
"odds": 7.48
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "SV Elversberg",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.54,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 79.89,
"gap_pp": -7.55,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 72.33
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 12.71,
"gap_pp": 5.71,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 18.42
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 7.4,
"gap_pp": 1.85,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 9.25
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 70.61,
"gap_pp": -9.01,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 61.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.39,
"gap_pp": 9.01,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 38.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.19,
"early": 1.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 79.89,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.13,
"implied_early_pct": 78.75,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 7.48,
"early": 7.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 12.71,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.66,
"implied_early_pct": 13.36,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 12.84,
"early": 12.09,
"implied_closing_pct": 7.4,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.48,
"implied_early_pct": 7.88,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.34,
"early": 1.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 70.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.54,
"implied_early_pct": 69.07,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 3.22,
"early": 3.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.39,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.54,
"implied_early_pct": 30.93,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 12.0
}
},
"home_xg": 2.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1438,
"ev_under": 0.1904,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1904,
"over_prob": 61.6,
"sort_key": 10321.36,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 38.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0972,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.7989,
"max_ev": 0.0287,
"model_prob": 0.7233,
"side_label": "SV Elversberg",
"sort_key": 5222.96,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.006,
"ev_yes": -0.0795,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.006,
"no_prob": 49.7,
"sort_key": 1798.5,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 50.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
"top_prob": 12.0
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1313,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1313.webp",
"away_team_name": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1388913,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 1660,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1660.webp",
"home_team_name": "SV Elversberg",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_id": 79,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
"league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-17 13:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1945,
"best_odd": 12.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.074,
"model_prob": 0.0925,
"p_final": 0.0776
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1829,
"best_odd": 7.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": 0.0287,
"implied_prob": 0.1271,
"model_prob": 0.1842,
"p_final": 0.1375
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.532,
"best_odd": 1.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0402,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.7989,
"model_prob": 0.7233,
"p_final": 0.7587
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"edge_no": 0.0184,
"edge_yes": -0.0184,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.006,
"ev_yes": -0.0795,
"implied_no": 0.4786,
"implied_yes": 0.5214,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.39,
"best_under_odd": 3.1,
"edge_over": -0.0756,
"edge_under": 0.0756,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1438,
"ev_under": 0.1904,
"implied_over": 0.6916,
"implied_under": 0.3084,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.18,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1904,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.503,
"draw_prob": 0.1842,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.7233,
"over_prob": 0.616,
"total_xg": 3.18,
"under_prob": 0.384,
"xg_diff": 1.62
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0287,
"implied_prob": 0.1271,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.1842,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0402,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.7989,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.7233,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "SV Elversberg"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.006,
"implied_prob": 0.4786,
"model_prob": 0.497,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0756,
"ev": 0.1904,
"implied_prob": 0.3084,
"model_prob": 0.384,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1388913,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1904,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.0925,
"draw": 0.1842,
"home": 0.7233
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"home": "SV Elversberg"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.073114,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1904,
"implied_prob": 0.3084,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.384,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1388913,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T13:29:17.158224+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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2. Bundesliga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Schalke 04 | 34 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 70 |
| 2 | SV Elversberg | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 62 |
| 3 | SC Paderborn 07 | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 62 |
| 4 | Hannover 96 | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 60 |
| 5 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 34 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 52 |
| 6 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 34 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 52 |
| 7 | Hertha BSC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 51 |
| 8 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 46 |
| 9 | VfL Bochum | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 44 |
| 10 | Karlsruher SC | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 44 |
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 41 |
| 12 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 41 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 39 |
| 14 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 34 | 12 | 3 | 19 | 39 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 37 |
| 16 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 37 |
| 17 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 37 |
| 18 | Preußen Münster | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 30 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SV Elversberg | 34 | 64 | 39 | +25 | 62 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 | 34 | 60 | 44 | +16 | 60 |
| 3 | SC Paderborn 07 | 34 | 59 | 45 | +14 | 62 |
| 4 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 34 | 57 | 45 | +12 | 52 |
| 5 | Dynamo Dresden | 34 | 54 | 53 | +1 | 41 |
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 34 | 53 | 51 | +2 | 39 |
| 7 | Karlsruher SC | 34 | 53 | 64 | -11 | 44 |
| 8 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 34 | 52 | 47 | +5 | 52 |
| 9 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 34 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 39 |
| 10 | FC Schalke 04 | 34 | 50 | 31 | +19 | 70 |
| 11 | VfL Bochum | 34 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 44 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 34 | 49 | 68 | -19 | 37 |
| 13 | Hertha BSC | 34 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 51 |
| 14 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 34 | 47 | 45 | +2 | 46 |
| 15 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 41 |
| 16 | Preußen Münster | 34 | 38 | 61 | -23 | 30 |
| 17 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 34 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 37 |
| 18 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 34 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 37 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Schalke 04 | 34 | 51.0 | 30.4 | +20.6 | 70 |
| 2 | SC Paderborn 07 | 34 | 58.1 | 38.1 | +20.0 | 62 |
| 3 | Hannover 96 | 34 | 55.4 | 38.5 | +16.9 | 60 |
| 4 | SV Elversberg | 34 | 51.6 | 37.3 | +14.3 | 62 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 34 | 52.6 | 45.9 | +6.7 | 39 |
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 34 | 50.3 | 46.2 | +4.1 | 39 |
| 7 | VfL Bochum | 34 | 51.9 | 48.6 | +3.3 | 44 |
| 8 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 34 | 46.2 | 44.1 | +2.1 | 52 |
| 9 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 34 | 46.2 | 44.2 | +2.0 | 46 |
| 10 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 34 | 52.1 | 51.8 | +0.3 | 52 |
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 34 | 43.2 | 43.9 | -0.7 | 41 |
| 12 | Hertha BSC | 34 | 44.7 | 51.4 | -6.7 | 51 |
| 13 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 34 | 40.3 | 49.4 | -9.1 | 37 |
| 14 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 34 | 36.7 | 48.1 | -11.4 | 37 |
| 15 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 34 | 39.4 | 51.4 | -12.0 | 37 |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 41.0 | 53.1 | -12.1 | 41 |
| 17 | Preußen Münster | 34 | 36.7 | 55.9 | -19.2 | 30 |
| 18 | Karlsruher SC | 34 | 42.5 | 61.9 | -19.4 | 44 |
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