Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Bayer Leverkusen Fuerte favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 81.0%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
Bayer Leverkusen lidera direccionalmente tanto la red de modelos como los precios de mercado.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Bayer Leverkusen Dibujar ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 3-0, 3-1, 2-0, 2-1, 4-0 1-1 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9eb140917ac38f73d94d903797fa9d8c8cf08876f9a5321a1fb07a2a7b527061",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.93,
"away_win_prob": 0.0662,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.1242,
"fair_odds_away": 15.1,
"fair_odds_draw": 8.05,
"fair_odds_home": 1.24,
"home_predicted_xg": 3.23,
"home_win_prob": 0.8096,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Bayer Leverkusen or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Bayer Leverkusen",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Bayer Leverkusen"
},
"away_xg": 0.93,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bayer Leverkusen",
"confidence": 80.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Bayer Leverkusen",
"edge": 0.0726,
"edge_gap": 0.6843,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.7364,
"model_prob": 0.809,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 6.6,
"draw": 12.5,
"home": 80.9
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Bayer Leverkusen"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.31
}
],
"risk_color": "#4caf50",
"risk_key": "low_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.31,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Bayer Leverkusen Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.36,
"market_odds": 1.31,
"model_odds": 1.24,
"overround": 3.7,
"prob_edge": 4.3,
"value_pct": 5.6,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 33,
"away_score_rate": 60.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 33,
"home_score_rate": 96.0,
"no_prob": 41.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 58.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 58.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.93,
"home_expected": 3.23,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 4,
"label": "4-0",
"prob": 7.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bayer Leverkusen or Draw",
"prob": 93.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bayer Leverkusen or Hamburger SV",
"prob": 87.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Hamburger SV",
"prob": 19.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Bayer Leverkusen or Draw",
"pick_prob": 93.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 6.6,
"draw_pct": 12.4,
"home_pct": 81.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Bayer Leverkusen"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 4.16,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 78.4,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 78.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 4.16,
"under_prob": 21.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 6.1,
"implied_prob": 76.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Bayer Leverkusen Win",
"model_prob": 81.0,
"odds": 1.31
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Hamburger SV",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bayer Leverkusen",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 73.64,
"gap_pp": 7.26,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 80.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 14.75,
"gap_pp": -2.29,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 12.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 11.61,
"gap_pp": -4.97,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 6.64
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.31,
"early": 1.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 73.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 73.64,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 6.54,
"early": 6.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 14.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 14.75,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 8.31,
"early": 8.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 11.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 11.61,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 8.8
}
},
"home_xg": 3.23,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0349,
"ev_under": -0.1576,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0349,
"over_prob": 78.4,
"sort_key": 10031.41,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 21.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.03,
"ev_yes": -0.0768,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.03,
"no_prob": 41.2,
"sort_key": 10027.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 58.8
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0155,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.7364,
"max_ev": 0.0155,
"model_prob": 0.809,
"side_label": "Bayer Leverkusen",
"sort_key": 5212.4,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 806.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "3-0",
"top_prob": 8.8
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 175,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/175.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hamburger SV",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1388605,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 168,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/168.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bayer Leverkusen",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_id": 78,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/78.webp",
"league_name": "Bundesliga",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-16 13:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1851,
"best_odd": 8.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1117,
"implied_prob": 0.1161,
"model_prob": 0.0664,
"p_final": 0.1069
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1931,
"best_odd": 6.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.0642,
"implied_prob": 0.1475,
"model_prob": 0.1246,
"p_final": 0.1431
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5347,
"best_odd": 1.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0388,
"ev": 0.0155,
"implied_prob": 0.7364,
"model_prob": 0.809,
"p_final": 0.7752
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"edge_no": 0.025,
"edge_yes": -0.025,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.03,
"ev_yes": -0.0768,
"implied_no": 0.387,
"implied_yes": 0.613,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.32,
"best_under_odd": 3.9,
"edge_over": 0.0404,
"edge_under": -0.0404,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0349,
"ev_under": -0.1576,
"implied_over": 0.7436,
"implied_under": 0.2564,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.16,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0349,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.588,
"draw_prob": 0.1246,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.809,
"over_prob": 0.784,
"total_xg": 4.16,
"under_prob": 0.216,
"xg_diff": 2.3
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0349,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.7436,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.784,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0388,
"ev": 0.0155,
"implied_prob": 0.7364,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.809,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bayer Leverkusen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": 0.03,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"model_prob": 0.412,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0404,
"ev": 0.0349,
"implied_prob": 0.7436,
"model_prob": 0.784,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1388605,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0349,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.0664,
"draw": 0.1246,
"home": 0.809
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hamburger SV",
"home": "Bayer Leverkusen"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1388605,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T13:29:16.220334+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Bundesliga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 89 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 73 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 65 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 62 |
| 5 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 61 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 59 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 47 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 44 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 43 |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 40 |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 39 |
| 12 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 |
| 14 | 1. FC Köln | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 32 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 32 |
| 16 | VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 29 |
| 17 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 26 |
| 18 | FC St. Pauli | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 26 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 34 | 122 | 36 | +86 | 89 |
| 2 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 71 | 49 | +22 | 62 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 70 | 34 | +36 | 73 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 68 | 47 | +21 | 59 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 66 | 47 | +19 | 65 |
| 6 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 65 | 52 | +13 | 61 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 61 | 65 | -4 | 44 |
| 8 | SC Freiburg | 34 | 51 | 57 | -6 | 47 |
| 9 | 1. FC Köln | 34 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 32 |
| 10 | FC Augsburg | 34 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 43 |
| 11 | VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 29 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 40 |
| 13 | Union Berlin | 34 | 44 | 58 | -14 | 39 |
| 14 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 26 |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | 34 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 38 |
| 17 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 32 |
| 18 | FC St. Pauli | 34 | 29 | 60 | -31 | 26 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 34 | 97.2 | 37.9 | +59.3 | 89 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 63.4 | 38.9 | +24.5 | 73 |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 64.0 | 44.8 | +19.2 | 59 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 66.3 | 50.2 | +16.1 | 65 |
| 5 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 60.1 | 49.8 | +10.3 | 62 |
| 6 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 55.1 | 51.4 | +3.7 | 61 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 34 | 48.6 | 47.8 | +0.8 | 47 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 52.9 | 54.6 | -1.7 | 40 |
| 9 | 1. FC Köln | 34 | 50.9 | 54.9 | -4.0 | 32 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 45.4 | 50.1 | -4.7 | 44 |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 34 | 44.9 | 52.2 | -7.3 | 39 |
| 12 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | 42.7 | 52.5 | -9.8 | 38 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 40.4 | 54.3 | -13.9 | 32 |
| 14 | VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 47.1 | 61.8 | -14.7 | 29 |
| 15 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | 47.5 | 63.4 | -15.9 | 26 |
| 16 | FC Augsburg | 34 | 45.2 | 62.6 | -17.4 | 43 |
| 17 | Hamburger SV | 34 | 38.3 | 56.9 | -18.6 | 38 |
| 18 | FC St. Pauli | 34 | 30.5 | 56.2 | -25.7 | 26 |