Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Paris Saint Germain Favorito dominante
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 88.2%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
Paris Saint Germain lidera direccionalmente tanto la red de modelos como los precios de mercado.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 3-0, 2-0, 4-0, 1-0, 5-0 1-0 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.0257,
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"fair_odds_draw": 10.84,
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Paris Saint Germain and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Paris Saint Germain",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Paris Saint Germain"
},
"away_xg": 0.5,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Paris Saint Germain",
"confidence": 88.2,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Paris Saint Germain",
"edge": 0.0629,
"edge_gap": 0.7904,
"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 9.2,
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},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Paris Saint Germain"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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],
"risk_color": "#4caf50",
"risk_key": "low_risk",
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"value_rating": "no_value"
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},
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"home_clean_sheet": 16,
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"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 96.0,
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"pick": "No",
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"home_expected": 3.22,
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{
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"home": 3,
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
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},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 4,
"label": "4-0",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 5,
"label": "5-0",
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
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},
{
"key": "12",
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"total_expected": 3.72,
"under_prob": 28.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 1.8,
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"market": "Paris Saint Germain Win",
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
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}
},
"home_xg": 3.22,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
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"tier": "best",
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{
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{
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"sort_key": 1795.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 820.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "3-0",
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}
],
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 106,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/106.webp",
"away_team_name": "Stade Brestois 29",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
"country_name": "France",
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"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 85,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/85.webp",
"home_team_name": "Paris Saint Germain",
"league_country": "France",
"league_id": 61,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/61.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-09 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
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],
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"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"calibration": {
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"edge": -0.0078,
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"draw": {
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"home": {
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"calibration": {
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},
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},
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"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"edge_no": 0.1073,
"edge_yes": -0.1073,
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"ev_yes": -0.2532,
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
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"best_under_odd": 3.4,
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"edge_under": -0.0165,
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"ev_over": -0.0163,
"ev_under": -0.0412,
"implied_over": 0.7015,
"implied_under": 0.2985,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.72,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
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"algorithm": {
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"version": "2.0.0"
},
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"best_tracked_ev": 0.1785,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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],
"score": 7.0
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.092,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.8824,
"over_prob": 0.718,
"total_xg": 3.72,
"under_prob": 0.282,
"xg_diff": 2.72
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"edge": 0.0342,
"ev": -0.0183,
"implied_prob": 0.8195,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.8824,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Paris Saint Germain"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": 0.1073,
"ev": 0.1785,
"implied_prob": 0.5097,
"model_prob": 0.617,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0163,
"implied_prob": 0.7015,
"model_prob": 0.718,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
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"match_regime": {
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"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1785,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.092,
"home": 0.8824
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Stade Brestois 29",
"home": "Paris Saint Germain"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.110134,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1785,
"implied_prob": 0.5097,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.617,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1387992,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T18:59:15.654289+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ligue 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 76 |
| 2 | Lens | 34 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 70 |
| 3 | Lille | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 61 |
| 4 | Lyon | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 60 |
| 5 | Marseille | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 59 |
| 6 | Rennes | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 59 |
| 7 | Monaco | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 54 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 53 |
| 9 | Lorient | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 45 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 44 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 44 |
| 12 | Stade Brestois 29 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 39 |
| 13 | Angers | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 36 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 35 |
| 15 | Auxerre | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 |
| 16 | Nice | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 32 |
| 17 | Nantes | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 23 |
| 18 | Metz | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 74 | 29 | +45 | 76 |
| 2 | Lens | 34 | 66 | 35 | +31 | 70 |
| 3 | Marseille | 34 | 63 | 45 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Monaco | 34 | 60 | 54 | +6 | 54 |
| 5 | Rennes | 34 | 59 | 50 | +9 | 59 |
| 6 | Strasbourg | 34 | 58 | 47 | +11 | 53 |
| 7 | Lyon | 34 | 53 | 40 | +13 | 60 |
| 8 | Lille | 34 | 52 | 37 | +15 | 61 |
| 9 | Lorient | 34 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 45 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 44 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 34 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 44 |
| 12 | Stade Brestois 29 | 34 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 39 |
| 13 | Nice | 34 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 32 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 34 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 34 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 35 |
| 16 | Metz | 34 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 17 |
| 17 | Angers | 34 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 36 |
| 18 | Nantes | 33 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 63.7 | 27.4 | +36.3 | 76 |
| 2 | Lens | 34 | 66.7 | 42.7 | +24.0 | 70 |
| 3 | Marseille | 34 | 60.2 | 42.1 | +18.1 | 59 |
| 4 | Lille | 34 | 54.6 | 36.8 | +17.8 | 61 |
| 5 | Strasbourg | 34 | 51.4 | 43.9 | +7.5 | 53 |
| 6 | Lyon | 34 | 51.1 | 43.7 | +7.4 | 60 |
| 7 | Monaco | 34 | 56.9 | 50.0 | +6.9 | 54 |
| 8 | Rennes | 34 | 54.0 | 52.8 | +1.2 | 59 |
| 9 | Lorient | 34 | 45.4 | 45.0 | +0.4 | 45 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 42.9 | 42.6 | +0.3 | 44 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 34 | 44.3 | 50.0 | -5.7 | 39 |
| 12 | Nantes | 33 | 33.4 | 43.5 | -10.1 | 23 |
| 13 | Paris FC | 34 | 44.4 | 56.1 | -11.7 | 44 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 34 | 38.3 | 50.9 | -12.6 | 35 |
| 15 | Auxerre | 34 | 35.5 | 48.1 | -12.6 | 34 |
| 16 | Nice | 34 | 43.1 | 59.2 | -16.1 | 32 |
| 17 | Angers | 34 | 32.4 | 55.4 | -23.0 | 36 |
| 18 | Metz | 34 | 34.4 | 62.7 | -28.3 | 17 |