Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Strasbourg Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 52.1%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
El modelo se inclina hacia el {equipo}, con una modesta separación de otros resultados. Monitoree el movimiento del mercado antes del inicio.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Strasbourg Toulouse ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "5ad1ab33935a0c583c39c98c03d8189491f9d2a4b906262b2e8a5b3a215f2186",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.09,
"away_win_prob": 0.2173,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2617,
"fair_odds_away": 4.6,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.82,
"fair_odds_home": 1.92,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.78,
"home_win_prob": 0.521,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Strasbourg or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Strasbourg",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Strasbourg"
},
"away_xg": 1.09,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Strasbourg",
"confidence": 52.1,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Strasbourg",
"edge": 0.1875,
"edge_gap": 0.2591,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.5208,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 21.7,
"draw": 26.2,
"home": 52.1
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Strasbourg"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 2.97
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.92
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.92
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 2.9
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 2.88
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.85
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 2.8
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.8
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.97,
"bookmaker_affi": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"display_market": "Strasbourg Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.0,
"market_odds": 2.84,
"model_odds": 1.92,
"overround": 5.7,
"prob_edge": 18.4,
"value_pct": 54.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 66.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 30,
"home_score_rate": 83.1,
"no_prob": 43.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 56.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 56.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.09,
"home_expected": 1.78,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 6.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Strasbourg or Draw",
"prob": 78.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Strasbourg or Toulouse",
"prob": 73.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Toulouse",
"prob": 47.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Strasbourg or Draw",
"pick_prob": 78.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 21.7,
"draw_pct": 26.2,
"home_pct": 52.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Strasbourg"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.87,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 54.7,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 54.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.87,
"under_prob": 45.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"edge": 54.7,
"implied_prob": 33.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Strasbourg Win",
"model_prob": 52.1,
"odds": 2.97
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 16.0,
"edge": 2.7,
"ev": 43.7,
"label": "2-0",
"probability": 9.0
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.0
}
},
"home_xg": 1.78,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
"best_odds": 2.57,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Strasbourg",
"edge": 13.2,
"ev": 54.8,
"probability": 52.1
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1115,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3371,
"max_ev": 0.1115,
"model_prob": 0.5208,
"side_label": "Strasbourg",
"sort_key": 10250.35,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0229,
"ev_under": -0.0578,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0229,
"over_prob": 54.7,
"sort_key": 10020.61,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 45.3,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0452,
"ev_yes": -0.0548,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0452,
"no_prob": 43.4,
"sort_key": 1788.7,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 56.6
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.0
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 96,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/96.webp",
"away_team_name": "Toulouse",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
"country_name": "France",
"fixture_id": 1387985,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 95,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/95.webp",
"home_team_name": "Strasbourg",
"league_country": "France",
"league_id": 61,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/61.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-03 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3313,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0583,
"ev": -0.196,
"implied_prob": 0.3933,
"model_prob": 0.2174,
"p_final": 0.335
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2965,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0023,
"ev": -0.0644,
"implied_prob": 0.2697,
"model_prob": 0.2618,
"p_final": 0.2673
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.326,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0599,
"ev": 0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.3371,
"model_prob": 0.5208,
"p_final": 0.397
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"edge_no": 0.0066,
"edge_yes": -0.0066,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0452,
"ev_yes": -0.0548,
"implied_no": 0.4274,
"implied_yes": 0.5726,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.87,
"best_under_odd": 2.08,
"edge_over": 0.0213,
"edge_under": -0.0213,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0229,
"ev_under": -0.0578,
"implied_over": 0.5257,
"implied_under": 0.4743,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.87,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1115,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.566,
"draw_prob": 0.2618,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5208,
"over_prob": 0.547,
"total_xg": 2.87,
"under_prob": 0.453,
"xg_diff": 0.69
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0599,
"ev": 0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.3371,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5208,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Strasbourg"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.434,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": 0.0229,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"model_prob": 0.547,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1387985,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1115,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2174,
"draw": 0.2618,
"home": 0.5208
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Toulouse",
"home": "Strasbourg"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.046455,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.3371,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5208,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Strasbourg",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1387985,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-03T10:06:49.891956+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ligue 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 76 |
| 2 | Lens | 34 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 70 |
| 3 | Lille | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 61 |
| 4 | Lyon | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 60 |
| 5 | Marseille | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 59 |
| 6 | Rennes | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 59 |
| 7 | Monaco | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 54 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 53 |
| 9 | Lorient | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 45 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 44 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 44 |
| 12 | Stade Brestois 29 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 39 |
| 13 | Angers | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 36 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 35 |
| 15 | Auxerre | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 |
| 16 | Nice | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 32 |
| 17 | Nantes | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 23 |
| 18 | Metz | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 74 | 29 | +45 | 76 |
| 2 | Lens | 34 | 66 | 35 | +31 | 70 |
| 3 | Marseille | 34 | 63 | 45 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Monaco | 34 | 60 | 54 | +6 | 54 |
| 5 | Rennes | 34 | 59 | 50 | +9 | 59 |
| 6 | Strasbourg | 34 | 58 | 47 | +11 | 53 |
| 7 | Lyon | 34 | 53 | 40 | +13 | 60 |
| 8 | Lille | 34 | 52 | 37 | +15 | 61 |
| 9 | Lorient | 34 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 45 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 44 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 34 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 44 |
| 12 | Stade Brestois 29 | 34 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 39 |
| 13 | Nice | 34 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 32 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 34 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 34 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 35 |
| 16 | Metz | 34 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 17 |
| 17 | Angers | 34 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 36 |
| 18 | Nantes | 33 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 63.7 | 27.4 | +36.3 | 76 |
| 2 | Lens | 34 | 66.7 | 42.7 | +24.0 | 70 |
| 3 | Marseille | 34 | 60.2 | 42.1 | +18.1 | 59 |
| 4 | Lille | 34 | 54.6 | 36.8 | +17.8 | 61 |
| 5 | Strasbourg | 34 | 51.4 | 43.9 | +7.5 | 53 |
| 6 | Lyon | 34 | 51.1 | 43.7 | +7.4 | 60 |
| 7 | Monaco | 34 | 56.9 | 50.0 | +6.9 | 54 |
| 8 | Rennes | 34 | 54.0 | 52.8 | +1.2 | 59 |
| 9 | Lorient | 34 | 45.4 | 45.0 | +0.4 | 45 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 42.9 | 42.6 | +0.3 | 44 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 34 | 44.3 | 50.0 | -5.7 | 39 |
| 12 | Nantes | 33 | 33.4 | 43.5 | -10.1 | 23 |
| 13 | Paris FC | 34 | 44.4 | 56.1 | -11.7 | 44 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 34 | 38.3 | 50.9 | -12.6 | 35 |
| 15 | Auxerre | 34 | 35.5 | 48.1 | -12.6 | 34 |
| 16 | Nice | 34 | 43.1 | 59.2 | -16.1 | 32 |
| 17 | Angers | 34 | 32.4 | 55.4 | -23.0 | 36 |
| 18 | Metz | 34 | 34.4 | 62.7 | -28.3 | 17 |