Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- HNK Rijeka Favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 64.4%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
HNK Rijeka lidera direccionalmente tanto la red de modelos como los precios de mercado.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 3-0 3-0 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.1317,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_draw": 4.46,
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : HNK Rijeka or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "HNK Rijeka"
},
"away_xg": 0.85,
"betting_insight": {
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"main_pick_meta": {
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"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 22.4,
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},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
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}
},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
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{
"key": "12",
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},
{
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}
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},
"over_under": {
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
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},
"home_xg": 2.07,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 814.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
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}
],
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 5730,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5730.webp",
"away_team_name": "Vukovar",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
"country_name": "Croatia",
"fixture_id": 1384086,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 561,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/561.webp",
"home_team_name": "HNK Rijeka",
"league_country": "Croatia",
"league_id": 210,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/210.webp",
"league_name": "HNL",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-09 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
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],
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"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"calibration": {
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},
"edge": 0.0072,
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"draw": {
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}
},
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"edge_yes": 0.0159,
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"ev_yes": -0.0202,
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"implied_yes": 0.4971,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
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"best_under_odd": 2.37,
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"edge_under": 0.0395,
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"implied_under": 0.4015,
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"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"total_xg": 2.92,
"variance_flag": false
},
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"algorithm": {
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"version": "2.0.0"
},
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"best_tracked_ev": 0.0452,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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"side": null
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
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"over_prob": 0.559,
"total_xg": 2.92,
"under_prob": 0.441,
"xg_diff": 1.22
},
"type": "strong_signal",
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},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"ev": 0.0452,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4015,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.441,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"implied_prob": 0.7369,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.6444,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "HNK Rijeka"
},
"btts": {
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"ev": -0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.4971,
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"side": "yes",
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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"ev": 0.0452,
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"model_prob": 0.441,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1384086,
"match_regime": {
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"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
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"max_valid_ev": 0.0452,
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"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1316,
"draw": 0.224,
"home": 0.6444
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Vukovar",
"home": "HNK Rijeka"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1384086,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T14:56:01.252906+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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HNL — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 36 | 27 | 5 | 4 | 86 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 36 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 68 |
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 54 |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 53 |
| 5 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 36 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 44 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 43 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 41 |
| 8 | HNK Gorica | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 41 |
| 9 | NK Osijek | 36 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 35 |
| 10 | Vukovar | 36 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 28 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 36 | 93 | 28 | +65 | 86 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 36 | 61 | 36 | +25 | 68 |
| 3 | HNK Rijeka | 36 | 49 | 36 | +13 | 53 |
| 4 | NK Varazdin | 36 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 54 |
| 5 | NK Slaven Belupo | 36 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 41 |
| 6 | HNK Gorica | 36 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 41 |
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 36 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 44 |
| 8 | Istra 1961 | 36 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 43 |
| 9 | Vukovar | 36 | 37 | 73 | -36 | 28 |
| 10 | NK Osijek | 36 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 35 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 36 | 69.3 | 25.5 | +43.8 | 86 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 36 | 66.5 | 36.7 | +29.8 | 68 |
| 3 | HNK Rijeka | 36 | 50.7 | 32.0 | +18.7 | 53 |
| 4 | HNK Gorica | 36 | 38.3 | 43.4 | -5.1 | 41 |
| 5 | NK Osijek | 36 | 38.2 | 43.3 | -5.1 | 35 |
| 6 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 36 | 41.0 | 46.5 | -5.5 | 44 |
| 7 | NK Varazdin | 36 | 36.8 | 42.5 | -5.7 | 54 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 36 | 35.6 | 51.7 | -16.1 | 41 |
| 9 | Vukovar | 36 | 29.1 | 54.0 | -24.9 | 28 |
| 10 | Istra 1961 | 36 | 31.4 | 61.4 | -30.0 | 43 |