The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected GKS Katowice at 58.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 GKS Katowice Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.15) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned GKS Katowice; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · GKS Katowice 2.06 — Jagiellonia Białystok 1.09
-
May 17, 2026 · 12:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
1.71
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · GKS Katowice 2–2 Jagiellonia Białystok
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 58.5%
- Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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}
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},
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},
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"teams": {
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},
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},
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}
},
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"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T16:00:50.210321+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ekstraklasa — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 60 |
| 2 | Górnik Zabrze | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 56 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 56 |
| 4 | Raków Częstochowa | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 55 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 50 |
| 6 | Legia Varsovia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 49 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 48 |
| 8 | Wisła Płock | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 46 |
| 9 | Pogoń Szczecin | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 45 |
| 10 | Radomiak Radom | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 44 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 43 |
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 43 |
| 13 | Cracovia | 34 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 42 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 42 |
| 15 | Piast Gliwice | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 41 |
| 16 | Lechia Gdańsk | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 38 |
| 17 | Arka Gdynia | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 36 |
| 18 | Nieciecza | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 34 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 34 | 62 | 45 | +17 | 60 |
| 2 | Lechia Gdańsk | 34 | 62 | 65 | -3 | 38 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 34 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 56 |
| 4 | Radomiak Radom | 34 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 44 |
| 5 | Raków Częstochowa | 34 | 51 | 40 | +11 | 55 |
| 6 | GKS Katowice | 34 | 51 | 45 | +6 | 50 |
| 7 | Górnik Zabrze | 34 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 56 |
| 8 | Pogoń Szczecin | 34 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 45 |
| 9 | Motor Lublin | 34 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 43 |
| 10 | Zagłębie Lubin | 34 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 48 |
| 11 | Nieciecza | 34 | 43 | 65 | -22 | 34 |
| 12 | Legia Varsovia | 34 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 49 |
| 13 | Piast Gliwice | 34 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 41 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 34 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 42 |
| 15 | Korona Kielce | 34 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 43 |
| 16 | Cracovia | 34 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 42 |
| 17 | Wisła Płock | 34 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 46 |
| 18 | Arka Gdynia | 34 | 34 | 61 | -27 | 36 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 34 | 63.8 | 39.1 | +24.7 | 60 |
| 2 | Legia Varsovia | 34 | 46.6 | 35.5 | +11.1 | 49 |
| 3 | Raków Częstochowa | 34 | 52.6 | 43.7 | +8.9 | 55 |
| 4 | Górnik Zabrze | 34 | 46.1 | 40.2 | +5.9 | 56 |
| 5 | Piast Gliwice | 34 | 45.8 | 40.9 | +4.9 | 41 |
| 6 | Pogoń Szczecin | 34 | 53.4 | 49.1 | +4.3 | 45 |
| 7 | Lechia Gdańsk | 34 | 52.7 | 48.7 | +4.0 | 38 |
| 8 | Cracovia | 34 | 39.5 | 36.4 | +3.1 | 42 |
| 9 | Widzew Łódź | 34 | 38.9 | 37.5 | +1.4 | 42 |
| 10 | Wisła Płock | 34 | 44.9 | 45.4 | -0.5 | 46 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 34 | 49.9 | 51.2 | -1.3 | 43 |
| 12 | GKS Katowice | 34 | 42.9 | 47.5 | -4.6 | 50 |
| 13 | Radomiak Radom | 34 | 42.7 | 48.4 | -5.7 | 44 |
| 14 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 34 | 44.4 | 50.6 | -6.2 | 56 |
| 15 | Zagłębie Lubin | 34 | 36.8 | 45.6 | -8.8 | 48 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 34 | 36.6 | 49.7 | -13.1 | 36 |
| 17 | Nieciecza | 34 | 44.5 | 58.1 | -13.6 | 34 |
| 18 | Motor Lublin | 34 | 40.0 | 54.5 | -14.5 | 43 |
