Predicciones / Fútbol / Inglaterra. Premier League / Manchester City vs Aston Villa

Auditoría de predicción: Manchester City vs Aston Villa Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Manchester City Manchester City
May 24, 2026 - 15:00
1 2.21
2 1.10
xG Accuracy: 56%
Aston Villa Aston Villa

The model missed the final outcome (Aston Villa win 1–2).

The model had projected Manchester City at 61.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Grado de predicción C

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
  • 1X2 Manchester City Aston Villa ✖ Incorrecto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrecto

Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Manchester City higher than the statistical model.

Mayor brecha de probabilidad: Manchester City -11.2 pp

Resultado Modelo Mercado de cierre Diferencia Señal
Manchester City 61.4% 72.6% -11.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 21.9% 16.8% +5.2 pp Model Higher
Aston Villa 16.7% 10.7% +6.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Manchester City's win probability at 72.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 61.4%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Aston Villa win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Manchester City than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.31) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Manchester City; match finished Aston Villa
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Manchester City by 11.2 percentage points (72.6% vs model 61.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse

Cronología de predicción

Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 18:27 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Manchester City 61.4% · Draw 21.9% · Aston Villa 16.7%
    • xG · Manchester City 2.21 — Aston Villa 1.10
  2. May 24, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Manchester City 1.33 · Draw 5.76 · Aston Villa 9.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Manchester City 72.6% · Draw 16.8% · Aston Villa 10.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 24, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Manchester City 1.33 · Draw 5.76 · Aston Villa 9.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Manchester City 72.6% · Draw 16.8% · Aston Villa 10.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 24, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Aston Villa win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Instantánea histórica

Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.

Veredicto histórico: Monitor
Decisión histórica Monitor
Resultado Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (64%+)
Evidencia ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 43/100
Betting Confidence 40/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 16:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3451432

Closing Odds 1.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Aston Villa win · Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Revisar preguntas frecuentes

¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.

Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1379344,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2852,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.167,
        "draw": 0.2194,
        "home": 0.6137
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Aston Villa",
        "home": "Manchester City"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.101816,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2852,
        "implied_prob": 0.3023,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.357,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "weak",
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": true
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1379344,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-24T18:27:44.895688+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Premier League Premier League — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Arsenal 38 26 7 5 85
2 Manchester City 38 23 9 6 78
3 Manchester United 38 20 11 7 71
4 Aston Villa 38 19 8 11 65
5 Liverpool 38 17 9 12 60
6 Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 57
7 Sunderland 38 14 12 12 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion 38 14 11 13 53
9 Brentford 38 14 11 13 53
10 Chelsea 38 14 10 14 52
11 Fulham 38 15 7 16 52
12 Newcastle United 38 14 7 17 49
13 Everton 38 13 10 15 49
14 Leeds United 38 11 14 13 47
15 Crystal Palace 38 11 12 15 45
16 Nottingham Forest 38 11 11 16 44
17 Tottenham 38 10 11 17 41
18 West Ham United 38 10 9 19 39
19 Burnley 38 4 10 24 22
20 Wolves 38 3 11 24 20
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Manchester City 38 77 35 +42 78
2 Arsenal 38 71 27 +44 85
3 Manchester United 38 69 50 +19 71
4 Liverpool 38 63 53 +10 60
5 Chelsea 38 58 52 +6 52
6 Bournemouth 38 58 54 +4 57
7 Aston Villa 38 56 49 +7 65
8 Brentford 38 55 52 +3 53
9 Newcastle United 38 53 55 -2 49
10 Brighton & Hove Albion 38 52 46 +6 53
11 Leeds United 38 49 56 -7 47
12 Nottingham Forest 38 48 51 -3 44
13 Tottenham 38 48 57 -9 41
14 Everton 38 47 50 -3 49
15 Fulham 38 47 51 -4 52
16 West Ham United 38 46 65 -19 39
17 Sunderland 38 42 48 -6 54
18 Crystal Palace 38 41 51 -10 45
19 Burnley 38 38 75 -37 22
20 Wolves 38 27 68 -41 20
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 Arsenal 38 64.5 28.8 +35.7 85
2 Manchester City 38 68.8 42.6 +26.2 78
3 Manchester United 38 64.7 48.5 +16.2 71
4 Liverpool 38 60.1 46.9 +13.2 60
5 Chelsea 38 63.5 51.9 +11.6 52
6 Brighton & Hove Albion 38 57.4 49.9 +7.5 53
7 Crystal Palace 38 57.6 50.2 +7.4 45
8 Bournemouth 38 62.5 56.8 +5.7 57
9 Newcastle United 38 57.2 51.5 +5.7 49
10 Brentford 38 59.3 54.3 +5.0 53
11 Leeds United 38 54.4 55.1 -0.7 47
12 Fulham 38 47.9 52.2 -4.3 52
13 Aston Villa 38 47.6 54.3 -6.7 65
14 Nottingham Forest 38 46.3 56.3 -10.0 44
15 Everton 38 45.9 55.9 -10.0 49
16 Tottenham 38 40.8 52.2 -11.4 41
17 West Ham United 38 45.1 56.8 -11.7 39
18 Sunderland 38 39.1 53.4 -14.3 54
19 Wolves 38 35.5 58.1 -22.6 20
20 Burnley 38 32.3 74.9 -42.6 22