Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Juventus Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 59.2%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
El modelo se inclina hacia el {equipo}, con una modesta separación de otros resultados. Monitoree el movimiento del mercado antes del inicio.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Juventus Juventus ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d21621fac707b72dd3aec016ffca399eeb70df0cef5b8f3bea49646b6cc88e9c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.5919,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2637,
"fair_odds_away": 1.69,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.79,
"fair_odds_home": 6.93,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.74,
"home_win_prob": 0.1444,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Juventus and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Juventus"
},
"away_xg": 1.71,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Juventus",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0855,
"edge_gap": 0.3279,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6773,
"model_prob": 0.5918,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 59.2,
"draw": 26.4,
"home": 14.4
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.43
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Juventus Win",
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"label": "Away",
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"market_odds": 1.43,
"model_odds": 1.69,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": -10.8,
"value_pct": -15.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 35,
"away_score_rate": 81.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 18,
"home_played": 35,
"home_score_rate": 52.3,
"no_prob": 55.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 55.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
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},
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"home_expected": 0.74,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 14.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Lecce or Draw",
"prob": 40.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Lecce or Juventus",
"prob": 73.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
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},
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"draw_pct": 26.4,
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.45,
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"confidence": "medium",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"source": "xG_dc",
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"total_expected": 2.45,
"under_prob": 55.7
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 24.8,
"implied_prob": 11.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
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"model_prob": 14.4,
"odds": 8.67
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
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}
},
"home_xg": 0.74,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"ev_over": -0.0963,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
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"id": "1x2",
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"side_label": "Juventus",
"sort_key": 5217.84,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 824.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 14.8
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 496,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/496.webp",
"away_team_name": "Juventus",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1378218,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 867,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/867.webp",
"home_team_name": "Lecce",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_id": 135,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/135.webp",
"league_name": "Serie A",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-10 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5231,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0447,
"ev": -0.0954,
"implied_prob": 0.6773,
"model_prob": 0.5918,
"p_final": 0.6326
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1841,
"best_odd": 4.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": 0.0132,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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"best_odd": 8.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": 0.0223,
"implied_prob": 0.1117,
"model_prob": 0.1443,
"p_final": 0.1179
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.68,
"best_yes_odd": 2.36,
"edge_no": -0.0213,
"edge_yes": 0.0213,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0626,
"ev_yes": 0.0431,
"implied_no": 0.5793,
"implied_yes": 0.4207,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.04,
"best_under_odd": 1.91,
"edge_over": -0.0429,
"edge_under": 0.0429,
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_under": 0.0639,
"implied_over": 0.4859,
"implied_under": 0.5141,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.45,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
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"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
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"best_tracked_ev": 0.0639,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2639,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5918,
"over_prob": 0.443,
"total_xg": 2.45,
"under_prob": 0.557,
"xg_diff": 0.97
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0223,
"implied_prob": 0.1117,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.1443,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Lecce",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0447,
"ev": -0.0954,
"implied_prob": 0.6773,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5918,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Juventus"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": 0.0431,
"implied_prob": 0.4207,
"model_prob": 0.442,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0429,
"ev": 0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.5141,
"model_prob": 0.557,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1378218,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
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"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5918,
"draw": 0.2639,
"home": 0.1443
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Juventus",
"home": "Lecce"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0639,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.557,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1378218,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T12:59:15.077866+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie A — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 87 |
| 2 | Napoli | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 76 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 73 |
| 4 | Como | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 71 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 70 |
| 6 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 69 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 59 |
| 8 | Bologna | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 56 |
| 9 | Lazio | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 54 |
| 10 | Udinese | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 50 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 49 |
| 12 | Torino | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 45 |
| 13 | Parma | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 45 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 43 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 42 |
| 16 | Genoa | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41 |
| 17 | Lecce | 38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 38 |
| 18 | Cremonese | 38 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 34 |
| 19 | Hellas Verona | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 21 |
| 20 | Pisa | 38 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 89 | 35 | +54 | 87 |
| 2 | Como | 38 | 65 | 29 | +36 | 71 |
| 3 | Juventus | 38 | 61 | 34 | +27 | 69 |
| 4 | AS Roma | 38 | 59 | 31 | +28 | 73 |
| 5 | Napoli | 38 | 58 | 36 | +22 | 76 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 38 | 53 | 35 | +18 | 70 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 38 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 59 |
| 8 | Bologna | 38 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 56 |
| 9 | Sassuolo | 38 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 49 |
| 10 | Udinese | 38 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 50 |
| 11 | Torino | 38 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 45 |
| 12 | Lazio | 38 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 54 |
| 13 | Fiorentina | 38 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 42 |
| 14 | Genoa | 38 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 41 |
| 15 | Cagliari | 38 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 43 |
| 16 | Cremonese | 38 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 34 |
| 17 | Parma | 38 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 45 |
| 18 | Lecce | 38 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 38 |
| 19 | Pisa | 38 | 26 | 71 | -45 | 18 |
| 20 | Hellas Verona | 38 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 71.5 | 34.8 | +36.7 | 87 |
| 2 | Juventus | 38 | 65.6 | 32.0 | +33.6 | 69 |
| 3 | Como | 38 | 62.2 | 33.8 | +28.4 | 71 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 38 | 59.6 | 43.3 | +16.3 | 70 |
| 5 | AS Roma | 38 | 55.4 | 39.1 | +16.3 | 73 |
| 6 | Atalanta | 38 | 57.3 | 42.2 | +15.1 | 59 |
| 7 | Napoli | 38 | 49.7 | 36.7 | +13.0 | 76 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 38 | 49.8 | 47.5 | +2.3 | 42 |
| 9 | Bologna | 38 | 44.0 | 45.8 | -1.8 | 56 |
| 10 | Lazio | 38 | 41.0 | 43.5 | -2.5 | 54 |
| 11 | Genoa | 38 | 45.1 | 48.8 | -3.7 | 41 |
| 12 | Torino | 38 | 44.8 | 52.8 | -8.0 | 45 |
| 13 | Udinese | 38 | 42.0 | 52.2 | -10.2 | 50 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 38 | 42.6 | 55.3 | -12.7 | 49 |
| 15 | Hellas Verona | 38 | 35.2 | 48.6 | -13.4 | 21 |
| 16 | Cagliari | 38 | 36.9 | 53.3 | -16.4 | 43 |
| 17 | Pisa | 38 | 39.6 | 58.9 | -19.3 | 18 |
| 18 | Cremonese | 38 | 35.0 | 57.8 | -22.8 | 34 |
| 19 | Parma | 38 | 32.2 | 56.6 | -24.4 | 45 |
| 20 | Lecce | 38 | 30.9 | 57.4 | -26.5 | 38 |