Predicciones / Fútbol / Italy. Serie A / Lecce vs Juventus

Lecce vs Juventus Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

May 09, 2026 - 18:45
0 0.74
1 1.71
xG Accuracy: 67%

Evaluación de pronóstico

Pronóstico confiable

Favorito
Juventus Ligeramente favorito
Probabilidad del modelo
59.2%
Acuerdo de mercado
Validación
Pendiente

Resumen:

El modelo se inclina hacia el {equipo}, con una modesta separación de otros resultados. Monitoree el movimiento del mercado antes del inicio.

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Juventus Juventus ✔ Correct
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "d21621fac707b72dd3aec016ffca399eeb70df0cef5b8f3bea49646b6cc88e9c",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.71,
      "away_win_prob": 0.5919,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2637,
      "fair_odds_away": 1.69,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.79,
      "fair_odds_home": 6.93,
      "home_predicted_xg": 0.74,
      "home_win_prob": 0.1444,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Juventus and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "50%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "0%",
      "winner_name": "Juventus"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.71,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Juventus",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0855,
        "edge_gap": 0.3279,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6773,
        "model_prob": 0.5918,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 59.2,
          "draw": 26.4,
          "home": 14.4
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.43
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.43,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Juventus Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.48,
        "market_odds": 1.43,
        "model_odds": 1.69,
        "overround": 3.3,
        "prob_edge": -10.8,
        "value_pct": -15.4,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 15,
        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 35,
        "away_score_rate": 81.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 9,
        "home_failed_to_score": 18,
        "home_played": 35,
        "home_score_rate": 52.3,
        "no_prob": 55.8,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 55.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 44.2
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.71,
        "home_expected": 0.74,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 14.8
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 12.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.9
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.3
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 8.6
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Lecce or Draw",
            "prob": 40.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Lecce or Juventus",
            "prob": 73.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Juventus",
            "prob": 85.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Juventus",
        "pick_prob": 85.6
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 59.2,
        "draw_pct": 26.4,
        "home_pct": 14.4,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Juventus"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "-3.5",
        "avg_total": 2.45,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.7,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.7,
        "over_prob": 44.3,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 55.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.45,
        "under_prob": 55.7
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 24.8,
        "implied_prob": 11.5,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Lecce Win",
        "model_prob": 14.4,
        "odds": 8.67
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "0-1",
        "prob": 14.8
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 0.74,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0963,
        "ev_under": 0.0639,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0639,
        "over_prob": 44.3,
        "sort_key": 10207.51,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 55.7,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.0626,
        "ev_yes": 0.0431,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0431,
        "no_prob": 55.8,
        "sort_key": 10038.79,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 44.2
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0954,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.6773,
        "max_ev": 0.0223,
        "model_prob": 0.5918,
        "side_label": "Juventus",
        "sort_key": 5217.84,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 824.4,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "0-1",
        "top_prob": 14.8
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 496,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/496.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Juventus",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
      "country_name": "Italy",
      "fixture_id": 1378218,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 867,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/867.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Lecce",
      "league_country": "Italy",
      "league_id": 135,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/135.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie A",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-10 13:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.5231,
            "best_odd": 1.43,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0447,
            "ev": -0.0954,
            "implied_prob": 0.6773,
            "model_prob": 0.5918,
            "p_final": 0.6326
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1841,
            "best_odd": 4.59,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0097,
            "ev": 0.0132,
            "implied_prob": 0.211,
            "model_prob": 0.2639,
            "p_final": 0.2207
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1902,
            "best_odd": 8.67,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0062,
            "ev": 0.0223,
            "implied_prob": 0.1117,
            "model_prob": 0.1443,
            "p_final": 0.1179
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.68,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.36,
          "edge_no": -0.0213,
          "edge_yes": 0.0213,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0626,
          "ev_yes": 0.0431,
          "implied_no": 0.5793,
          "implied_yes": 0.4207,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.04,
          "best_under_odd": 1.91,
          "edge_over": -0.0429,
          "edge_under": 0.0429,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0963,
          "ev_under": 0.0639,
          "implied_over": 0.4859,
          "implied_under": 0.5141,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.45,
      "variance_flag": true
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0639,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.442,
          "draw_prob": 0.2639,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5918,
          "over_prob": 0.443,
          "total_xg": 2.45,
          "under_prob": 0.557,
          "xg_diff": 0.97
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "ev": 0.0223,
          "implied_prob": 0.1117,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.1443,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "longshot",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Lecce",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0447,
          "ev": -0.0954,
          "implied_prob": 0.6773,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.5918,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Juventus"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0213,
          "ev": 0.0431,
          "implied_prob": 0.4207,
          "model_prob": 0.442,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0429,
          "ev": 0.0639,
          "implied_prob": 0.5141,
          "model_prob": 0.557,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1378218,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0639,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.5918,
        "draw": 0.2639,
        "home": 0.1443
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "variance_medium",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Juventus",
        "home": "Lecce"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.031321,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0639,
        "implied_prob": 0.5141,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.557,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1378218,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T12:59:15.077866+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Volver a Predicciones
Serie A Serie AClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Inter 38 27 6 5 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 34
19 Hellas Verona 38 3 12 23 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 18
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Inter 38 89 35 +54 87
2 Como 38 65 29 +36 71
3 Juventus 38 61 34 +27 69
4 AS Roma 38 59 31 +28 73
5 Napoli 38 58 36 +22 76
6 AC Milan 38 53 35 +18 70
7 Atalanta 38 51 36 +15 59
8 Bologna 38 49 46 +3 56
9 Sassuolo 38 46 50 -4 49
10 Udinese 38 45 48 -3 50
11 Torino 38 44 63 -19 45
12 Lazio 38 41 40 +1 54
13 Fiorentina 38 41 50 -9 42
14 Genoa 38 41 51 -10 41
15 Cagliari 38 40 53 -13 43
16 Cremonese 38 32 57 -25 34
17 Parma 38 28 46 -18 45
18 Lecce 38 28 50 -22 38
19 Pisa 38 26 71 -45 18
20 Hellas Verona 38 25 61 -36 21
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 Inter 38 71.5 34.8 +36.7 87
2 Juventus 38 65.6 32.0 +33.6 69
3 Como 38 62.2 33.8 +28.4 71
4 AC Milan 38 59.6 43.3 +16.3 70
5 AS Roma 38 55.4 39.1 +16.3 73
6 Atalanta 38 57.3 42.2 +15.1 59
7 Napoli 38 49.7 36.7 +13.0 76
8 Fiorentina 38 49.8 47.5 +2.3 42
9 Bologna 38 44.0 45.8 -1.8 56
10 Lazio 38 41.0 43.5 -2.5 54
11 Genoa 38 45.1 48.8 -3.7 41
12 Torino 38 44.8 52.8 -8.0 45
13 Udinese 38 42.0 52.2 -10.2 50
14 Sassuolo 38 42.6 55.3 -12.7 49
15 Hellas Verona 38 35.2 48.6 -13.4 21
16 Cagliari 38 36.9 53.3 -16.4 43
17 Pisa 38 39.6 58.9 -19.3 18
18 Cremonese 38 35.0 57.8 -22.8 34
19 Parma 38 32.2 56.6 -24.4 45
20 Lecce 38 30.9 57.4 -26.5 38