Predicciones / Fútbol / Italy. Serie A / Cagliari vs Udinese

Cagliari vs Udinese Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

May 09, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.32
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 56%

Evaluación de pronóstico

Pronóstico confiable

Favorito
Cagliari Partido equilibrado
Probabilidad del modelo
38.2%
Acuerdo de mercado
Validación
Pendiente

Resumen:

Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cagliari Udinese ✖ Incorrect
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
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      "away_win_prob": 0.3154,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3025,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.17,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.31,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.62,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3821,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Udinese",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Udinese"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.18,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Cagliari",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0161,
        "edge_gap": 0.0663,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3659,
        "model_prob": 0.382,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 31.6,
          "draw": 30.2,
          "home": 38.2
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.66
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
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        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Cagliari Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.73,
        "market_odds": 2.66,
        "model_odds": 2.62,
        "overround": 2.7,
        "prob_edge": 0.6,
        "value_pct": 1.5,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 9,
        "away_played": 35,
        "away_score_rate": 69.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 8,
        "home_failed_to_score": 13,
        "home_played": 35,
        "home_score_rate": 73.3,
        "no_prob": 47.6,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 52.4,
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        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 52.4
      },
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        "home_expected": 1.32,
        "scores": [
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            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
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            "prob": 8.2
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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          },
          {
            "key": "12",
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            "prob": 69.7
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
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            "prob": 61.7
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Cagliari or Udinese",
        "pick_prob": 69.7
      },
      "match_winner": {
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        "draw_pct": 30.2,
        "home_pct": 38.2,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Cagliari"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.5,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "over_prob": 45.6,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 54.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.5,
        "under_prob": 54.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 1.6,
        "implied_prob": 37.6,
        "is_value": false,
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        "market": "Cagliari Win",
        "model_prob": 38.2,
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    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.8
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.32,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0716,
        "ev_under": -0.0752,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0716,
        "over_prob": 45.6,
        "sort_key": 10214.44,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 54.4,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.0908,
        "ev_yes": 0.0008,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0008,
        "no_prob": 47.6,
        "sort_key": 5200.64,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 52.4
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0079,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3659,
        "max_ev": -0.0079,
        "model_prob": 0.382,
        "side_label": "Cagliari",
        "sort_key": 1798.025,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 818.4,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.8
      }
    ],
    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 494,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/494.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Udinese",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
      "country_name": "Italy",
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      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 490,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/490.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Cagliari",
      "league_country": "Italy",
      "league_id": 135,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/135.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie A",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-10 13:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
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          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 4.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2999,
            "best_odd": 3.08,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0001,
            "ev": -0.027,
            "implied_prob": 0.316,
            "model_prob": 0.3157,
            "p_final": 0.3159
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2929,
            "best_odd": 3.06,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0046,
            "ev": -0.0408,
            "implied_prob": 0.3181,
            "model_prob": 0.3023,
            "p_final": 0.3135
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4392,
            "best_odd": 2.66,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0071,
            "ev": -0.0079,
            "implied_prob": 0.3659,
            "model_prob": 0.382,
            "p_final": 0.373
          }
        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.91,
          "edge_no": -0.0243,
          "edge_yes": 0.0243,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0908,
          "ev_yes": 0.0008,
          "implied_no": 0.5003,
          "implied_yes": 0.4997,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.35,
          "best_under_odd": 1.7,
          "edge_over": 0.0357,
          "edge_under": -0.0357,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0716,
          "ev_under": -0.0752,
          "implied_over": 0.4203,
          "implied_under": 0.5797,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.5,
      "variance_flag": true
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0716,
      "confidence": 4.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
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          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 4.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.524,
          "draw_prob": 0.3023,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.382,
          "over_prob": 0.456,
          "total_xg": 2.5,
          "under_prob": 0.544,
          "xg_diff": 0.14
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0071,
          "ev": -0.0079,
          "implied_prob": 0.3659,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.382,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Cagliari"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0243,
          "ev": 0.0008,
          "implied_prob": 0.4997,
          "model_prob": 0.524,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0357,
          "ev": 0.0716,
          "implied_prob": 0.4203,
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1378214,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0716,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3157,
        "draw": 0.3023,
        "home": 0.382
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "variance_medium"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Udinese",
        "home": "Cagliari"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.020112,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0716,
        "implied_prob": 0.4203,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.456,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1378214,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T12:59:09.851934+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Volver a Predicciones
Serie A Serie AClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Inter 38 27 6 5 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 34
19 Hellas Verona 38 3 12 23 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 18
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Inter 38 89 35 +54 87
2 Como 38 65 29 +36 71
3 Juventus 38 61 34 +27 69
4 AS Roma 38 59 31 +28 73
5 Napoli 38 58 36 +22 76
6 AC Milan 38 53 35 +18 70
7 Atalanta 38 51 36 +15 59
8 Bologna 38 49 46 +3 56
9 Sassuolo 38 46 50 -4 49
10 Udinese 38 45 48 -3 50
11 Torino 38 44 63 -19 45
12 Lazio 38 41 40 +1 54
13 Fiorentina 38 41 50 -9 42
14 Genoa 38 41 51 -10 41
15 Cagliari 38 40 53 -13 43
16 Cremonese 38 32 57 -25 34
17 Parma 38 28 46 -18 45
18 Lecce 38 28 50 -22 38
19 Pisa 38 26 71 -45 18
20 Hellas Verona 38 25 61 -36 21
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 Inter 38 71.5 34.8 +36.7 87
2 Juventus 38 65.6 32.0 +33.6 69
3 Como 38 62.2 33.8 +28.4 71
4 AC Milan 38 59.6 43.3 +16.3 70
5 AS Roma 38 55.4 39.1 +16.3 73
6 Atalanta 38 57.3 42.2 +15.1 59
7 Napoli 38 49.7 36.7 +13.0 76
8 Fiorentina 38 49.8 47.5 +2.3 42
9 Bologna 38 44.0 45.8 -1.8 56
10 Lazio 38 41.0 43.5 -2.5 54
11 Genoa 38 45.1 48.8 -3.7 41
12 Torino 38 44.8 52.8 -8.0 45
13 Udinese 38 42.0 52.2 -10.2 50
14 Sassuolo 38 42.6 55.3 -12.7 49
15 Hellas Verona 38 35.2 48.6 -13.4 21
16 Cagliari 38 36.9 53.3 -16.4 43
17 Pisa 38 39.6 58.9 -19.3 18
18 Cremonese 38 35.0 57.8 -22.8 34
19 Parma 38 32.2 56.6 -24.4 45
20 Lecce 38 30.9 57.4 -26.5 38