Pronostici / Calcio / Inghilterra. FA Women's Super League / West Ham Women vs Everton Women

Audit previsione: West Ham Women vs Everton Women Previsione, Quote & Consigli di Scommessa AI

West Ham Women West Ham Women
Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
Everton Women Everton Women

The model missed the final outcome (Everton Women win 0–1).

The model had projected West Ham Women at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Valutazione della previsione F

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 West Ham Women Everton Women ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Corretto

Modello vs Mercato di Chiusura

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices West Ham Women higher than the statistical model.

Maggior divario di probabilità: West Ham Women -5.7 pp

Esito Modello Mercato di Chiusura Differenza Segnale
West Ham Women 35.2% 40.8% -5.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.1% +0.6 pp Aligned
Everton Women 35.2% 30.1% +5.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates West Ham Women's win probability at 40.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Dopo il tempo regolamentare, il risultato è stato Everton Women win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on West Ham Women. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on West Ham Women by 5.7 percentage points (40.9% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Cronologia delle Previsioni

Come questa previsione è passata dalla previsione alla revisione a tempo pieno.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:05 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · West Ham Women 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Everton Women 35.2%
    • xG · West Ham Women 1.30 — Everton Women 1.30
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:37 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · West Ham Women 2.27 · Draw 3.19 · Everton Women 3.08
    • Implied 1X2 · West Ham Women 40.8% · Draw 29.1% · Everton Women 30.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · West Ham Women 2.27 · Draw 3.19 · Everton Women 3.08
    • Implied 1X2 · West Ham Women 40.8% · Draw 29.1% · Everton Women 30.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Everton Women win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Istante Storico

Congelato al calcio d'inizio — l'output del modello come si presentava prima dell'inizio della partita.

Verdetto Storico: Observe
Decisione Storica No Primary Bet
Esito Missed
Metriche pre-partita (contesto storico)
Affidabilità della previsione 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidenza ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8672643

Closing Odds 2.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Everton Women win · West Ham Women 0–1 Everton Women
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

FAQ sulla revisione

Quanto era accurata la previsione?
Questa pagina valuta i mercati direzionali (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) rispetto al risultato finale. Il grado di previsione riflette quanti di questi mercati monitorati corrispondono alla realtà.
Cosa misura la precisione xG?
La precisione xG confronta il profilo di gol attesi pre-partita del modello con il punteggio effettivo — non se ogni mercato ha colpito. Una forte revisione direzionale può coesistere con un punteggio di precisione xG moderato.
Perché il punteggio esatto non è stato previsto?
I risultati di punteggio esatto sono code a bassa probabilità anche quando il modello interpreta bene il profilo della partita. Evidenziamo i principali intervalli di punteggio per contesto; mancare la linea esatta non invalida una revisione direzionale.
Questo migliora il record dell'AI?
Ogni partita terminata viene registrata nel nostro sistema di validazione. I tassi di successo aggregati e gli studi CLV vengono pubblicati separatamente — questa pagina è il registro di audit per partita.

Le previsioni sono solo a scopo informativo. Gioca sempre responsabilmente e nei limiti delle tue possibilità. Le prestazioni passate non garantiscono risultati futuri.

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: FA Women's Super League
  • Fixture: West Ham Women vs Everton Women
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): West Ham Women 1.3 — Everton Women 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.5% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +10.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Previsioni Correlate

Vedi le Prossime FA Women's Super League Partite Traccia West Ham Women Previsione Prossima Partita Traccia Everton Women Previsione Prossima Partita Visualizza le Previsioni di Calcio di Oggi

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FA Women's Super League FA Women's Super League — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Manchester City Women 4 4 0 0 12
2 London City Lionesses 4 3 0 1 9
3 Tottenham Hotspur Women 3 2 1 0 7
4 Chelsea W 3 2 1 0 7
5 Everton Women 3 2 0 1 6
6 Arsenal Women 3 1 2 0 5
7 Liverpool Women 3 1 1 1 4
8 Crystal Palace Women 3 1 1 1 4
9 West Ham Women 3 1 0 2 3
10 Aston Villa Women 3 0 2 1 2
11 Brighton & Hove Albion Women 4 0 2 2 2
12 Birmingham City Women 3 0 1 2 1
13 Manchester United Women 3 0 1 2 1
14 Charlton Athletic Women 4 0 0 4 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Manchester City Women 4 12 4 +8 12
2 Tottenham Hotspur Women 3 11 2 +9 7
3 London City Lionesses 4 9 4 +5 9
4 Chelsea W 3 8 1 +7 7
5 Liverpool Women 3 7 5 +2 4
6 West Ham Women 3 3 5 -2 3
7 Aston Villa Women 3 3 6 -3 2
8 Brighton & Hove Albion Women 4 3 6 -3 2
9 Birmingham City Women 3 3 7 -4 1
10 Everton Women 3 2 1 +1 6
11 Arsenal Women 3 2 1 +1 5
12 Manchester United Women 3 2 8 -6 1
13 Crystal Palace Women 3 1 7 -6 4
14 Charlton Athletic Women 4 1 10 -9 0
# SQUADRA PG xG xGC +/- PT
1 London City Lionesses 4 1.2 0.2 +1.0 9
2 Manchester United Women 3 0.2 1.2 -1.0 1
3 Manchester City Women 4 — — — 12
4 Tottenham Hotspur Women 3 — — — 7
5 Chelsea W 3 — — — 7
6 Everton Women 3 — — — 6
7 Arsenal Women 3 — — — 5
8 Liverpool Women 3 — — — 4
9 Crystal Palace Women 3 — — — 4
10 West Ham Women 3 — — — 3
11 Aston Villa Women 3 — — — 2
12 Brighton & Hove Albion Women 4 — — — 2
13 Birmingham City Women 3 — — — 1
14 Charlton Athletic Women 4 — — — 0
FA Women's Super League Inghilterra. FA Women's Super League Pronostici